Joint Coho Technical Committee Periodic Report

Author

PSC Joint Coho Technical Committee

Published

March 28, 2025

Coho Picture

1 Introduction

In response to a decline in natural Coho Salmon (Onchorynchus kisutch) abundance, the Pacific Salmon Commission (PSC) established a Southern Coho abundance-based management regime (CoABM) in 1999 (Pacific Salmon Commission 1999). This Southern Coho Management Plan (SCMP, also referred to as ABM, or ‘abundance based management’) aimed to conserve Coho Salmon Management Units (MUs) of naturally-spawning Coho Salmon in southern British Columbia and Washington/Oregon based on abundance status and escapement goals. The set out to constrain exploitation rates (; defined as total fishing mortality divided by total fishing mortality plus escapement) below maximum levels (caps) on selected in order to achieve long-term Maximum Sustainable Harvests (MSHs). These constraints are implemented by specifying caps for the individual dependent on annual abundance status. During their respective preseason planning processes, the Parties use management reference points to classify the status of each as low, moderate, or abundant. The parties then exchange these status determinations as a key input in the development of pre-season plans.

When a new Coho Management Plan was agreed upon in 2008 (implemented 2009 through 2018; (Pacific Salmon Commission 2009)) and the latest agreement finalized (applies to the period from catch years 2019 through 2028; (Pacific Salmon Commission 2022)), modifications were made to the list of specified and to the manner in which caps are established. This periodic report presents information for the identified in the most current Pacific Salmon Treaty’s (PST) (Chapter 5 of Annex IV in the current ). In the 2008 abundance-based management regimes were established to constrain () on 13 of naturally-spawning Coho Salmon originating in rivers along the Washington/British Columbia (BC) border. Beginning in 2019, the most recent Management Plan (Pacific Salmon Commission 2022) combined two of the Canadian , the Georgia Strait Vancouver Island and the Georgia Strait Mainland into the Strait of Georgia . The 12 in the current are listed below (Table 1.1).

Table 1.1: Management Units within the current Pacific Salmon Treaty Southern Coho Management Plan.
Southern BC US Inside US Outside
Interior Fraser Skagit Quillayute
Lower Fraser Stillaguamish Hoh
Strait of Georgia Snohomish Queets
Hood Canal Grays Harbor
US Strait JDF

The objective of the , as described in the Treaty, is to manage salmon directed fisheries impact on Southern Coho stocks by limiting the total fishery exploitation and allow the different to produce long-term , while maintaining the genetic and ecological diversity of the individual populations. In addition, the plan is designed to improve the prospect of sustaining healthy fisheries for both parties over the long-term. The plan is intended to be cost-effective and flexible to available technical capacity and information, while providing a predictable framework for planning fisheries impacts and allowing for objective monitoring, evaluation and modification.

Under the Agreement, the United States and Canada (the “Parties”) are required to establish escapement goals or that achieve , determine for each , and establish for each and status category (low, moderate, and abundant). Until such time as the Parties provide -specific targets, the identified default ceilings for each status category (Table 1.2).

Table 1.2: Range of agreed to total exploitation rates for MU abundance status categories in order to achieve maximum sustainable harvest.
Status Total Exploitation Rate
Low Up to 20%
Moderate 21% - 40%
Abundant 41% - 65%

Annual caps are established for each of the based on the level of abundance and health of the natural stocks. These caps are then apportioned between the Parties. Constraints for Canadian fisheries on US are determined by formulas that specify sharing of allowable as well as a composite rule, which together adjust caps according to the number of US MUs that fall within a given category. The composite rule adjusts constraints for Canadian fishery based on the number of US which fall in a given category. For example, if only one Washington coastal or Puget Sound Coho is in low status, Canadian fisheries are constrained to a total on that unit of 12%; if two or more Washington coastal are in low status, the constraint becomes 10%. The most restrictive limit for Canadian fishery impacts on US Coho is 10%.

At this time, constraints for US fisheries on Canadian depend on the status of the Interior Fraser until the biological statuses of the other Canadian have been determined. Under Annex IV Chapter 5 Section 8.c(i), until Canada establishes status determination methods for Canadian MUs other than the Interior Fraser , the Parties shall implement this Chapter to comply with status and associated caps that relate to the Interior Fraser and US only.

The status determination methodology developed and applied by Canada to the Interior Fraser Coho (Korman et al. 2019) consists of two criteria: 1) smolt-to-adult survival; and 2) escapement, which both? must be met for three consecutive years in order increase the status from low to moderate or moderate to high. Canada is currently working to develop the information (smolt to adult survival rates, escapements) needed to apply this status determination methodology to the Lower Fraser and Strait of Georgia . Details as to how constraints are established based on the status of under the are contained in Annex IV Chapter 5 Section 9.b-c (Canadian caps on inside and outside US ) and Section 9.d (US caps on Canadian ).

1.1 Management Unit Overview

The Canadian are comprised of geographical aggregates of naturally spawning Coho conservation units (CUs) within the Interior Fraser River (Figure 4.9), Lower Fraser River (Figure 4.9), and Strait of Georgia (Figure 4.34). A consists of one or more spawning populations which are genetically distinct from other conspecific spawning populations. The 2019 renewal of the combined the Georgia Basin – East and Georgia Basin – West into a single Strait of Georgia , reducing the number of Canadian in the bilateral management regime to three. Beginning with catch year 2019, the CoTC chose to combine model outputs for these in carrying out its pre-season and post-season evaluations, rather than reconfigure the FRAM framework.

Figure 1.1: Canadian Management Units

The US Inside consist of naturally spawning populations originating in the Skagit (Figure 4.46), Stillaguamish (Figure 4.57), Snohomish (Figure 4.68), Hood Canal (Figure 4.81), and the Strait of Juan de Fuca (Figure 4.88). Coho populations in the US Inside belong to the larger Puget Sound/Strait of Georgia Coho Salmon evolutionarily significant unit (ESU; (Weitkamp et al. 1995)). Only the eastern portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca is in this ESU. An ESU is a Pacific salmon population or group of populations that is substantially reproductively isolated from other conspecific populations and represents an important component of the evolutionary legacy of the species. The ESU policy (56 FR 58612) for Pacific salmon defines the criteria for identifying a Pacific salmon population as a distinct population segment, which can be listed under the US Endangered Species Act of 1973.

The US Outside consist of naturally-spawning populations from the Quillayute (Figure 4.99), Hoh (Figure 4.109), Queets (Figure 4.119), and Grays Harbor (Figure 4.129) basins. All US Outside , except the Grays Harbor , are part of the Olympic Peninsula ESU. Populations from the western portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca are also in this ESU. The Grays Harbor is part of the Southwest Washington ESU.

Figure 1.2: United States Management Units

1.2 Fishery Overview

Under the CoABM regime, each Party is required to regulate its fisheries so as not to exceed constraints on . Fishery Management Areas for British Columbia (Figure 1.3), Washington (Figure 1.4), and Oregon (Figure 1.5) are shown below.

Figure 1.3: Canadian DFO Southern BC Pacific Fisheries Management Areas.
Figure 1.4: Washington Coast and Puget Sound Marine Fishery Areas.
Figure 1.5: Oregon Ocean Salmon Management Areas and Major Port Locations.

1.2.1 Canadian Fisheries

Request for input

Southern BC Coho Salmon are caught in First Nations, recreational, and commercial troll and net fisheries. Since Coho Salmon rear in areas near the coast they are readily caught in directed fisheries and as bycatch in fisheries targeting other species. As a result, Coho Salmon are harvested in mixed-stock fisheries, creating many challenges for the assessment and management of the species.

Coho Salmon catches on the south coast of BC have declined since the mid-1980s, initially due to declining abundance and more recently because of severe conservation measures in response to the declining abundance. Total fishery in Canada were reduced from a range of 75 to 80% in the mid-1980s to 60% in 1995, 37% in 1997, 5% in 1998, and are currently estimated by Backwards Coho Fisheries Regulation Assessment Model (FRAM) during catch years 2011 through 2021 at less than 10%.

Historically 89% of the commercial Coho Salmon catch on the south coast of BC was taken by the troll sector with the remainder harvested by commercial net fisheries. The West Coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI) troll fishery was the single largest commercial harvester, taking an average of 1.5 million Coho Salmon in the 10-year period before 1997, when major fishing restrictions were imposed. This fishery intercepted stocks from the US, Strait of Georgia, and WCVI. Since 2001, average catch retained in the WCVI troll fishery has been 725 Coho, due primarily to the timing and non-retention restrictions in place for this fishery. Historically, catch in the Strait of Georgia troll fishery, comprised predominantly of Strait of Georgia stocks, was much smaller than the WCVI troll fishery (1986–1995 averaged 150,000 Coho Salmon, annually). The Strait of Georgia troll fishery has not been permitted to retain Coho Salmon since 1995.

Net fisheries in Johnstone Strait, Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Strait of Georgia harvest Coho Salmon incidentally during directed fisheries on Sockeye (O. nerka), Pink (O. gorbuscha), and Chum (O. keta) Salmon. Net fisheries have been curtailed in recent years due to low returns of the target species and concerns for Chinook (O. tshawytscha) and Coho Salmon bycatch.

While the First Nations’ harvest of Coho Salmon is small compared with other salmon species, several First Nations harvest Coho Salmon for food, social, and ceremonial purposes. They are caught in hook and line, net, and spear fisheries in or near their local streams. They are also caught incidentally in other First Nations’ salmon fisheries directed on other species, such as Sockeye and Chum Salmon.

Recreational fishing for Coho Salmon in BC tidal waters continues to be important to residents and visitors. Until the recent decline in Coho Salmon abundance and subsequent severe fishing restrictions, 70% of tidal recreational fishing took place within the Strait of Georgia. Since 1995, most Coho Salmon recreational fishery effort and catch has shifted from the Strait of Georgia to the WCVI, in part due to low abundance of Coho Salmon inside Vancouver Island. Overall, the proportion of Coho Salmon harvested by the recreational fishery has increased as commercial harvest has been significantly reduced as a result of the timing and non-retention harvest restrictions, as well as domestic allocation considerations in Canada that were implemented in response to the low abundance of Coho Salmon.

Due to conservation concerns, most notably for the Interior Fraser , Canadian Coho Salmon fisheries have seen unprecedented restrictions since 1997. In 1998 and 1999, no directed fisheries on naturally-spawning stocks of Coho Salmon were permitted; mandatory non-retention and non-possession of incidentally caught Coho Salmon was implemented in all areas, with the exception of some terminal hatchery locations. In the Pacific Region, (i.e., all marine waters of BC), barbless hooks became required for all salmon-directed commercial and recreational hook and line gear in 1998, a regulation that remains in effect. Pacific Region waters were classified as red or yellow zones. In red zones, areas where Thompson River Coho Salmon from the Interior Fraser River were known to be prevalent, fishing was restricted to very limited experimental selective fisheries, as well as some limited First Nations’ fisheries to meet food, social, and ceremonial requirements. Red zones included inshore waters of Victoria to Barkley Sound and offshore waters of Barkley Sound to Quatsino Sound, from June to September. Special management zones (SMZs), areas of mandatory Coho Salmon non-retention with special restrictions, were identified with the intent to avoid Coho Salmon encounters. Fisheries were only permitted in locations and times when Thompson River Coho Salmon could be avoided or released unharmed. These areas were subject to in-season adjustments, including time and area closures for all sectors. Fisheries conducted in these SMZs were monitored to ensure Coho Salmon encounter rates did not become too high, and tissue samples were taken for stock identification. In yellow zones, where endangered stocks were not prevalent, a selective fishing strategy was implemented for all commercial and recreational fisheries. These fisheries were required to release any live Coho Salmon Salmon that were caught during operations. Mandatory logbooks and an onboard observer program were initiated in commercial fisheries. Limited Coho Salmon retention was allowed only for First Nations and recreational fisheries.

Since 2000, fisheries impacting naturally-spawning Coho Salmon from southern BC, Washington State, and Oregon have been managed under the ABM regime. The ABM plan constrains total fishery exploitation on key stock in BC for each , annual limits of fishing mortality are established based on the categorical level of abundance and the health of the naturally-spawning stocks. In Canada, low status of Interior Fraser Coho Salmon has constrained southern BC fisheries for the last decade. The Southern US has been limited to 10% on Coho Salmon originating from the Interior Fraser . Southern BC fisheries, in waters south of Cape Caution where Interior Fraser Coho Salmon are prevalent, have been managed to a maximum 3% total fishing mortality rate on the Interior Fraser Coho Salmon . Non-retention of naturally-spawning Coho Salmon is generally in effect except for First Nations opportunities in specific terminal systems where abundance permits and where retention of by-catch during fisheries for other species is permitted. Release of unmarked Coho Salmon during periods when Interior Fraser Coho Salmon may be caught is required in all Canadian commercial and recreational fisheries.

1.2.2 US Fisheries

Current US fisheries are constrained by domestic and conservation objectives. For the Puget Sound , the current of CoABM uses the thresholds and stepped harvest rate goals from the Comprehensive Coho Agreement (Comprehensive Coho Workgroup 1998), developed by Washington State and the Puget Sound tribes, and adopted by the as Fishery Management Plan conservation objectives in November 2009. Actual constraints for Canadian fisheries on US Coho Salmon are determined by formulas that specify sharing of allowable total and a “composite rule”. The composite rule adjusts constraints for Canadian fishery based on the number of US that fall in a given category. For example, if only one Washington coastal Coho Salmon is in low status, Canadian fisheries are constrained to a total on that unit of 12%; if two or more Washington coastal are in low status, the constraint becomes 10%. The most restrictive limit for Canadian fishery impacts on US Coho Salmon is 10%.

Fisheries between Cape Falcon, Oregon and the US/Canada Border are constrained by four factors: (1) management objectives and treaty Indian obligations for individual stock US MUs; (2) treaty Indian/non-Indian and ocean/in-river sharing agreements; (3) stocks listed under the ESA; and (4) requirements of the . The starting point for implementing these constraints is the forecasted January age-3 (JA3) abundance and the modeled ocean distribution of each Coho Salmon stock.

Most Coho-directed recreational fisheries [Jeromy comment: Freshwater and marine? I think so, for WA, and Columbia River but would be good to add this qualifier in if true. More recently the OR coast freshwater fisheries are all non-selective, hence why I am asking for a bit of a qualifier here if possible.] have been mark-selective since 1999. Non-Indian commercial troll fisheries have been mostly restricted to mark-selective Coho Salmon retention since 2000. Treaty Indian fisheries are not restricted to mark-selective retention of Coho Salmon.

1.3 Bilateral Assessment Tool (FRAM) Overview

Coho Salmon fisheries are evaluated with the Coho Fisheries Regulation Assessment Model (Coho FRAM), a bilaterally developed tool that is employed for both pre-season fishery planning and post-season estimation of escapements and (see: pre- and post-season applications).

Coho FRAM is an annual mixed-stock accounting model that evaluates a set of stock units within a set of fisheries over time periods within a single fishing year (the calendar year for Coho Salmon) (documentation on FRAM can be found here: https://framverse.github.io/fram_doc/). It can be used to estimate catch and escapement based on forecast abundance and planned fisheries (‘forward’), or it can be used to reconstruct ocean abundance from observed escapements and fisheries (‘backward’).

The Coho FRAM base period parameterization, determining stock-fishery-timestep impacts, was constructed from stock-specific fishery recoveries of coded-wire tags (CWTs) within the 5 time steps of January to June, July, August, September, and October to December during coast wide fisheries from 1986 to 1992. The procedure used to generate base period data is depicted below (Figure 1.6). For each base period year, post-season reconstruction of cohort abundances for each Coho Salmon is based on two different models: the Mixed-Stock Model (MSM) that estimates the Production Expansion Factors for each Production Region and Terminal Area Run Reconstruction (RRTERM) program that estimates stock-specific impacts for terminal marine and freshwater fisheries. The MSM uses recoveries for each model stock expanded by the Production Expansion Factors to best describe the total catch in each marine mixed-stock fishery. The MSM/ cohort analysis has been used for post-season reconstructions for catch years 1986-2007. However, beginning with catch year 1993, too few coded-wire tags were recovered in mixed-stock fisheries to perform robust cohort analyses using the mixed-stock model (Figure 1.7).

Figure 1.6: General procedure used to generate base period data for Coho FRAM.
Figure 1.7: Total estimated pre-terminal coded-wire-tag recoveries for all Coho Salmon ages 3 and 4 (regardless of clip status).

1.3.1 Key Uncertainties with Coho FRAM analysis

FRAM is a deterministic model that reports point estimates of cohort abundances and without explicit measures of uncertainty associated with them. Managers should consider the following data limitations and model assumptions when interpreting FRAM results:

  • Cohort abundances and are sensitive to the quality of escapement estimates, with estimation practices varying substantially among stocks. For example, Puget Sound net pen programs often lack escapement estimates. For these programs, pre-season abundances are used or are scaled to a nearby hatchery program using a pre-post ratio.
  • Marine survival indices are used to estimate Canadian abundances, except for Interior Fraser, in both pre- and post-season FRAM runs because abundance forecasts and escapement estimates are highly uncertain or unavailable for the remaining two Canadian MUs.
  • It is unknown if average ocean distribution during the FRAM base period (derived using catch years 1986 to 1992 data) reflect the true annual ocean distribution of Coho Salmon stocks in contemporary years. A change in ocean distribution would lead to increased uncertainty in fishery-specific stock impacts.
  • Complex regulations, such as fine-scale spatial/temporal and mixed retention limits for natural and hatchery Coho Salmon within a fishery, are difficult to represent and assess within FRAM and as a result, FRAM may not accurately represent stock-specific impacts within fisheries with these regulations.
  • Spatial and temporal gaps in catch monitoring of some Canadian fisheries result in underestimation of catch.
  • Uncertainty in mortality estimates arises from several sources, including creel census and catch estimation.
  • Between time steps in FRAM, natural mortality is a constant rate; additionally, natural mortality does not reflect inter-annual variability in survival during adult ocean residence (January Age-3 through FRAM’s final time step).

For more details, see the FRAM documentation.

2 Determination of Status Benchmarks and ER Caps

2.1 Canadian Management Units

Procedures for determining the pre-season status of Canadian are being developed concurrently with determination of Conservation Unit (CU) status benchmarks required with implementation of the Canada Department of Fisheries and Oceans’ (CDFO) Wild Salmon Policy. Methods have been approved through the ’s internal peer review process, Center for Scientific Advice - Pacific (CSAP) (Holt et al. 2009). Work in 2018 identified a framework to develop potential Management Reference Points for Canadian (DFO 2018, Korman et al. 2019; https://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/consultation/smon/pst-coho-tsp/index-eng.html) included spawner abundance targets but also smolt-to-adult (or “marine”) survival index targets. It was deemed that targets must contain spawner abundance targets, which limited creation of management reference points to the Interior Fraser River because it was the only unit with an aggregate abundance timeseries.

Since 2002, in the absence of benchmarks, the Stock Assessment staff has provided a categorical outlook for the next year’s salmon status. The outlook is intended to provide an objective and consistent context within which to initiate fisheries planning.The category reflects the current interpretation of existing quantitative and qualitative information, including pre-season forecasts if available, and the opinion of Area stock assessment staff. Where management targets for stocks have not been formally described, interim targets were either based on historical return levels or, if necessary, opinion of local staff.

Canadian Coho Salmon abundance has declined, particularly in southern BC. Interior Fraser River Coho Salmon was assessed as endangered by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) in2002 and then reassessed as threatened in 2016. Interior Fraser River Coho Salmon have not been listed on Schedule 1 of the Species at Risk Act, which would afford additional protections to the stock. However, the Canadian Minister of Fisheries and Oceans has established a domestic cap of 3-5% for Canadian fishery impacts on Interior Fraser Coho Salmon. The Interior Fraser is comprised of five (North Thompson, South Thompson, Lower Thompson, Fraser Canyon, and Upper Fraser). The Interior Fraser River Coho Salmon recovery planning process has determined the critical benchmark needed to maintain population viability. Even with the reduction in fisheries exploitation, all Southern BC have followed a similar dramatic declining trend in both marine survival and total abundance from the high levels observed in the 1980s and early 1990s. Spawning escapements have responded to the decreased exploitation and are within the range observed during the 1970s and 1980s. However, the sustained low marine survival has resulted in a decreased total abundance.

Because of the absence of programs to estimate total abundance and escapement for the Strait of Georgia and Lower Fraser River Canadian , the bilaterally-developed tool, Backwards Coho FRAM, is relied upon to generate estimates of ocean age-3 cohort abundance and using post-season data scalars. Cohort abundances (catch and escapement) of Canadian , estimated by Backwards Coho FRAM based on modeled scalars, are depicted in Figure Figure 4.1. Reduced abundances apparent since 1996 were a major consideration that led to the development of ABM regimes for management of southern Coho Salmon.

2.2 US Inside Management Units

The status for US Inside is assigned based on ocean abundance (forecasted or re-constructed). Pre-season estimates of ocean abundance are typically forecasted from measured or modeled smolt production for each and multiplied by a marine survival rate predicted for each . Marine survival is predicted with a variety of methods including average return rates, correlations between jack and adult return rates, and correlations between environmental variables and historical return rates. Post-season estimates of ocean abundance are estimated using escapement and catch data and the Backwards Coho FRAM (Figure 4.2). The status of each is defined by a series of ocean abundance breakpoints. Domestic management of Puget Sound naturally-spawning Coho Salmon stocks also uses abundance-based, tiered objectives defined in the Comprehensive Coho Plan (Comprehensive Coho Workgroup 1998), that are similar to but not exactly consistent with the guidelines. The identified break points between Low, Moderate, and Abundant status are based on population-specific productivity analyses conducted by the state and tribal co-managers in each river basin.

2.3 US Outside Management Units

The status for US Outside is assigned based on the ceiling identified annually, ocean abundance, and existing escapement goals (Pacific Salmon Commission 2022). Management objectives are expressed as a range of spawning escapements expected to produce MSY (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2023a). Allowable are calculated from the forecast abundance and the lower end of the existing escapement goal range and used to classify the categorical status of the . This rate is the maximum allowed under the when the is in the moderate or abundant status, but up to 20% are allowed if the is in the low abundance status.

Pre- and post-season ocean abundances are estimated with the same approach described for the US Inside (Figure 4.3). Escapement goals for the US Outside are defined by state and tribal co-managers in each river basin and include escapement ranges in all but one (Grays Harbor) . Escapement ranges were originally intended to reflect the range of uncertainty in the escapement goals identified for each of these populations. Unlike the US Inside , escapement goals for the US Outside do not vary with run size. The escapement goals used for status determinations are the floor of the designated escapement ranges (see Table: @ref(tab:OutsideMUABM)). The stock status is “Low” if the ocean abundance is low enough that the ceiling falls at or below 20% in order to achieve the bottom end of the escapement range. The stock status is “Moderate” if ocean abundance results in an ceiling between 21% and 40%. The stock status is “Abundant” if ocean abundance results in an ceiling above 41%.

2.4 US Management Units Federal Status

Coho Salmon were the first Pacific salmon species for which coast-wide evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) were delineated (Ford 2011). Based on genetic and life history information, the US subject to the belong to three different Coho Salmon ESUs, the Puget Sound/Strait of Georgia, the Olympic Peninsula, and the Southwest Washington ESUs. The Puget Sound/Strait of Georgia Coho Salmon ESU is currently a species of concern under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA; (Ford 2011); Species of Concern 4/15/04, 69FR19975). The Olympic Peninsula ESU was evaluated for listing under the ESA and was determined to be not warranted (60 FR 38011; July 25). The Southwest Washington ESU is currently categorized as “undetermined”. Puget Sound/Strait of Georgia Coho Salmon are not currently candidates for listing in Washington as State Endangered, Threatened, or Sensitive (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife 2020).

At the federal level, species of concern do not have formal protection under the ESA. The primary purpose of identifying species of concern is to prevent the need to list them as threatened or endangered under the ESA. This purpose can be achieved by the following actions: (1) identifying species potentially at risk; (2) increasing public awareness about those species; (3) identifying data deficiencies and uncertainties in species’ status and threats; (4) stimulating cooperative research efforts to obtain the information necessary to evaluate species’ status and threats; and, (5) fostering voluntary efforts to conserve the species before listing becomes warranted.

Additionally, at the federal level, Coho Salmon caught in coastal waters of the U.S. (e.g., greater than 3 but within 200 nautical miles offshore) are managed under the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSA), which is the legislation providing for the management of marine fisheries in U.S. waters. In 2018, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) notified the that the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Queets, and Snohomish natural Coho Salmon stocks managed under the ’s Pacific Coast Salmon Fishery Management Plan (FMP) met the overfished criteria of the FMP and the MSA. NMFS determined that these stocks were overfished under the MSA, due to spawning escapement falling below the required level for the 3-year period 2014-2016. The MSA requires overfished stocks to be rebuilt in as short a time as possible, not to exceed 10 years. The overfished determinations were announced in the Federal Register on August 6, 2018 (83 FR 38292). In response to the overfished determination, the developed rebuilding plans for these stocks and provided them to NMFS in 2019. In 2021, NMFS issued a final rule under the authority of the MSA to approve and implement rebuilding plans recommended by the for the three stocks (86 FR 9301). This final rule adopts the existing harvest control rules, which use an annual abundance-based stepped harvest rate control rule with stock-specific abundance levels governing the total applied to forecast stock abundance levels. For Snohomish natural Coho Salmon, this final rule amends the existing harvest control rule by adding a 10% buffer to the existing escapement goal and adjusting the abundance steps during the rebuilding period. For all three Coho Salmon stocks, the ’s Salmon Technical Team’s analysis determined that freshwater and marine habitat conditions were the primary cause of these stocks meeting the FMP’s criteria for being overfished rather than fishing. Recently, it was determined that the Queets and Strait of Juan de Fuca have met the criteria for rebuilt status based on the most recent three-year geometric mean of escapement estimates (2020-2022) (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2024a).

3 Annual Implementation of the Southern Coho Management Plan

The Coho FRAM (Coho FRAM, Model Evaluation Workgroup (MEW). 2008) has been the tool used to plan US preseason fisheries, and also to evaluate postseason by the fisheries of both Parties on the naturally spawning Coho Salmon specified by the CoABM. Canada has not been using Coho FRAM preseason, instead using a combination of a ‘domestic model’ for planning marine fisheries and a ‘decay model’ for planning Fraser River fisheries. (Jeromy’s comment - Can we describe what get’s exchanged during the preseason process to reconcile this difference here in one or two sentences?)

Each country manages the Coho Salmon harvest within its cap through its own domestic fisheries management processes and annual fisheries plans. For Canada, the annual domestic planning process is documented in the salmon Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP) at the culmination of the process each June (is June correct?). For the US, the North of Cape Falcon ocean salmon fishing plans are reported in Preseason Report III (PFMC documents) at the culmination of the process each April. For US Inside , the 2019 uses the thresholds and stepped harvest rate goals from the Comprehensive Coho Agreement and adopted as (Fishery Management Plan) FMP conservation objectives in 2009. For US Outside , constraints represent the Maximum Fishing Mortality Threshold (MFMT). For US domestic purposes, the status categories are “critical”, “low”, and “normal”, which correspond to the categories of “low”, “moderate” and “abundant”, respectively (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2024b).

The US FMP includes status determination criteria (SDC) for overfishing, approaching an overfished condition, overfished, not overfished/rebuilding, and rebuilt (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2023b). These criteria are:

  • Overfishing occurs when a single year exceeds the maximum fishing mortality threshold (MFMT), which is based on the maximum sustainable yield (FMSY);

  • Approaching an overfished condition occurs when the geometric mean of the two most recent postseason estimates of spawning escapement, and the current preseason forecast of spawning escapement, is less than the minimum stock size threshold (MSST);

  • Overfished status occurs when the most recent 3-year geometric mean spawning escapement is less than the MSST;

  • Not overfished/rebuilding status occurs when a stock has been classified as overfished and has not yet been rebuilt, and the most recent 3-year geometric mean spawning escapement is greater than the MSST but less than Sustainable Maximum Yield (SMSY; the number of spawners need to maintain the highest possible annual catch of a population, a biological benchmark that represents a healthy population);

  • A stock is rebuilt when the most recent 3-year geometric mean spawning escapement exceeds SMSY.

should we delete this? Include it under the MUs? or, leave here and update the status?

Queets natural Coho Salmon, Strait of Juan de Fuca natural Coho Salmon, and Snohomish natural Coho Salmon stocks were classified as overfished in 2018, and the adopted rebuilding plans for these stocks in 2019 (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2023a). In 2020, Snohomish natural Coho Salmon was reported to have met the criteria for not overfished/rebuilding. In 2023, Snohomish natural Coho was reported to have met the criteria for rebuilt and Strait of Juan de Fuca natural Coho Salmon was reported to have met the criteria for not overfished/rebuilding. Queets natural Coho Salmon continue to meet the criteria for overfished. Coho Salmon fisheries, particularly north of Cape Falcon, were shaped to minimize impacts on these stocks and meet the objectives of the rebuilding plans. Objectives of the rebuilding plans for Queets natural Coho Salmon and Strait of Juan de Fuca natural Coho Salmon are to manage the stock under status quo SMSY.

3.1 Annual Determinations of Allowable Exploitation Rates for Management Units

3.2 United States fishery Planning Process

The US annual salmon fishery planning process starts in January with a Stock and Fishery Evaluation (SAFE) report on fisheries and escapements from previous years and concludes in early April when preseason fishing plans for US fisheries are developed. Outlined below are the Coho FRAM inputs used within the US domestic process to plan annual Coho Salmon fisheries, and postseason data needed to evaluate the preseason plan.

Preseason FRAM inputs:

  • Stocks’ abundance forecasts
  • Fishery inputs by Coho FRAM time period (e.g., season structure, gear and retention restrictions, quota levels, fishery harvest rate scalars)

Inseason:

  • FRAM fishery adjustments

Postseason FRAM inputs:

  • Stocks’ observed escapement
  • Fisheries’ observed catch and non-retention mortality by FRAM time period

Because the domestic planning processes of the Parties are not synchronous, a single pre-season command file containing expectations for both Canada and the US is not available prior to the conclusion of the process (US pre-season fishery planning) in April. Therefor, in any given year the pre-season command file used by the incorporates cohort abundance for both Canadian and US , but planned fishery regulations for US fisheries only. Unless other information is available, Canadian regulations are assumed to be similar to those implemented in the previous year. Subsequent to this process, additional command files are generated to represent the actual Canadian fishing plans. Command files used in pre-season planning from 2004 to 2023 are detailed in Table 10.1. These files contain specific information used at the time to model fisheries along with the pre-season forecasts of stock abundances.

3.2.1 US Preseason Abundance Forecasts

US forecast development commences in January of every year. US Forecasts for both Coho and Chinook Salmon stocks are finalized in late February and published in the annual PFMCs Pre I Report. In mid-March, the Parties share general expectations for stock abundance and fisheries though a manager-to-manager information exchange (see Development of Canadian Preseason Coho FRAM Inputs). These forecasts are then used throughout the /NOF (North of Falcon) salmon fishery planning meetings which conclude at the April meeting.

The forecast methodologies for many US stocks’ are generally based upon the products of two estimates specific to each production source: 1) number of smolts leaving freshwaters; and, 2) expected regional marine survival rates. Numbers of naturally produced smolts are estimated in a variety of ways but are based upon a large and widely distributed system of smolt traps. The number of smolts released from hatcheries are known. Marine survival is defined as, and calculated from, catch plus escapement from data. Sibling relationships, between jack returns and subsequent return to the mature cohort, have also been used as an index to predict marine survival. Environmental conditions have been increasingly relied upon as predictors of anticipated survival from smolt to adults entering the fisheries.

In recent years, a variety of preseason abundance estimators have been employed for Puget Sound and Washington coastal Coho Salmon stocks, primarily based on smolt production and survival (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2023b). These estimators are used to forecast preseason abundance of adult Ocean Age 3 recruits. Forecasts for natural Puget Sound Coho Salmon stocks were generally derived by measured or predicted smolt production from each major watershed or region, multiplied by stock-specific marine survival rate predictions based on a jack return model from the WDFW Big Beef Creek Research Station in Hood Canal, natural Coho Salmon tagging programs at Baker Lake (Skagit River basin) and South Fork Skykomish River, adult recruits/smolt data generated from the WDFW Deschutes River Research Station, or other information.

3.2.2 Development of US Preseason FRAM Inputs

US fishery planning relies upon both the Coho and Chinook FRAM models. The process starts at the early March meeting, proceeds through March at a variety of regional meetings (including the meetings), and concludes in early/mid April at the next meeting.

US Coho FRAM Stock Abundance Inputs: Abundance forecasts are incorporated into two models, Coho FRAM and Chinook FRAM, both of which rely on similar algorithms and common computer code. Mass marked and unmarked naturally and hatchery produced stocks (components of ) are represented in US Coho FRAM (e.g., Queets naturally produced unmarked, Queets naturally produced marked, Queets hatchery unmarked, Queets hatchery marked). For the specified by the , appropriate unmarked naturally produced stocks are combined. Numeric forecasts for southern US Coho Salmon stocks are provided from regional managers which utilize a variety of methodologies. The annual forecasts of Coho FRAM stocks are entered as Abundance Scalars, applied within the model to Base Period Stock Abundance.

Prior to the March meeting, an initial Coho FRAM model run with last year’s planned fisheries and the current year’s US forecasts serves to inform, in a general sense, how the fishery plan from the previous year needs to change to accommodate the current year’s stocks’ abundances. The results from this model run are included in the ’s Pre I Report. For these reports, see the PFMC Salmon Management Documents.

Starting with this initial model run, the US domestic salmon planning process is affected by the timing and quality of forecasts for Canadian Coho Salmon stocks. Coho FRAM performs best when data for all stocks are incorporated. The US domestic process is, in theory, at the half way point before Canadian forecasts are provided and combined with US forecasts for FRAM modeling at the 2 meeting in late March. Thus, at the March meeting and the 1 meeting there is hesitation to fully use the FRAM results for planning domestic fisheries as those results will likely change when Canadian forecasts are incorporated.

US FRAM Fishery Inputs: Expected fishery catch and/or mortality is the other major category of preseason inputs to Coho FRAM. At the March meeting three options (e.g., catch levels, retention restrictions, harvest rate scalars, seasons) are developed (low, moderate, high) for the US ocean fisheries (California, Oregon, and Washington coasts). The FRAM results for both Coho and Chinook Salmon from these March options are published in the annual Pre II Report.

During the course of March and early April US meetings, the domestic planning refines fishery inputs to insure compliance with various agreements. These include the Salmon FMP, domestic and international treaties; and the US ESA which collectively establish constraints on fishery impacts upon US Coho and Chinook Salmon stocks.

For the ocean fisheries the model inputs are Catch Quotas and regulations such as mark-selective fisheries, with the expectation that subsequent inseason monitoring will close fisheries without exceeding quotas. The model inputs for most sport and commercial US Puget Sound marine and terminal area fisheries are expected catch or expected harvest rates, generally based upon recent year averages and anticipated fisheries for Fraser Sockeye, Pink and Chum Salmon, and regulations such as mark selective fishing. In some cases the Catch Quota management approach is also used within Puget Sound with planned fishery closure as inseason observations indicate FRAM total fishery mortality estimates are being approached. The mortality associated with Coho Salmon non-retention is another class of fishery inputs.

Through the month of March the meetings shape inside fisheries (Washington Coastal terminal, Puget Sound marine and freshwater) for both Coho and Chinook Salmon for compliance with domestic and international requirements. The planning informs the April meeting toward the development of the final set of ocean, inside, and terminal fisheries. The FRAM modeling results of the final adopted regulations for ocean fisheries are published in the Pre III Report, and submitted to the US Department of Commerce for approval under the MSA and confirmation of compliance with the US ESA and other domestic obligations. Inside fisheries are formalized by regional agreements by state and tribal managers. There is no ability to modify the regulations and agreements after they are adopted.

Throughout this process, the January post season, Pre I-III reports are provided to Canada as information. The Final April Coho FRAM run is also provided to Canada. It is the April model run that until recently has provided the information for post season assessment of (see Canadian section of “Timing of Domestic Planning” for potential exception).

3.2.3 US Inseason Management

This information is from the ’s 2024 Preseason Report III (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2024a).

In season changes to planned U.S fisheries are limited, but have been implemented under some specific conditions. When ocean area/fishery specific quotas are not being caught in an ocean area then part of the quota may be transferred to another ocean area/fishery, based upon FRAM estimates of neutral impacts to the limiting stock(s); this may include adjustments to bag limits, seasons, and/or MSF regulations. The preseason planned prosecution of some fisheries is dependent upon the results of test fisheries, i.e., the Fraser Panel Sockeye directed commercial fisheries. Emergency closures due to attaining or exceeding planned catch quotas or in response to indications of reduced abundance.

3.2.4 US Management Units 2024 Exploitation Rate Constraints

For 2024, Puget Sound and Washington coast Coho Salmon preliminary constraints are as follows (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2024a):

Table 3.1: PST Southern Coho Management Plan
PST MU Total Exploitation Rate Constraint Categorical Status
Skagit 60% Abundant
Stillaguamish 50% Abundant
Snohomish 40% Moderate
Hood Canal 45% Moderate
Strait of Juan de Fuca 40% Moderate
Quillayute Fall 39% Moderate
Hoh 59% Abundant
Queets 55% Abundant
Grays Harbor 57% Abundant

(Table 3.1) constraint is Preliminary. For Puget Sound and Washington Coast management units, the constraints reflect application of the 2019 . Under the , categories (Abundant, Moderate, Low) correspond to the general ranges depicted in paragraph 8(b)(iii) of the 2019 . For Washington Coast stocks, categorical status is determined by the associated with meeting the escapement goal (or the lower end of the escapement goal range). As Washington Coast stocks are managed to achieve agreed escapement goals, this also becomes an approximation of the maximum allowable rate unless the stock is in the “Low” status. In that case, an of up to 20% is allowed.

Grays Harbor constraints are based on projected natural area spawners (wild plus hatchery strays) and MSP escapement goal of 35,400. Exploitation rate constraint subject to change should comanagers agree to a modified escapement goal under US v. Washington and Hoh v. Baldrige case law.

3.3 Canadian Fishery Planning Process

Annual Canadian fisheries are planned using a combination of two domestic models (marine fisheries and freshwater decay models) and tools focused upon Interior Fraser River (IFR) Coho Salmon The planning process starts early in the year. A draft IFMP is available for stakeholder comment in April, but the IFMP is not finalized until formally approved by the Fisheries Minister in June.

In the domestic process, initial planning scenarios are developed based on discussions with Fishery Managers, preliminary salmon outlook for stock status (prepared in November of previous year), effort expectation (targeted or incidental impact on IFR Coho Salmon) given constraints, and domestic allocation policy. Once stock abundance forecasts are available in March and timing and diversion forecasts for Fraser Sockeye are available in June, the final Salmon IFMP is submitted to the Minister for approval. The Canadian domestic model does not use Coho Salmon abundance forecasts directly, relying instead upon past relationships between fisheries’ effort and IFR , to estimate preseason projected for IFR. Depending on what species or fishery specific objectives are in place for the upcoming season, the domestic model is populated with anticipated effort based on trends in recent years and scaled to base period (1986–1997) effort. Multiple scenarios are run based on adjusting preliminary fishing plans (species, effort, month, gear, regulations) and results are reviewed by Fisheries Managers and evaluated for multiple objectives, in particular, meeting the preseason objectives for IFR Coho Salmon.

Key considerations for Canadian fishery management for Coho Salmon in 2024 are expected to include: (1) meeting domestic conservation obligations for Interior Fraser (including Thompson River) Coho Salmon; (2) Coho Salmon harvests by First Nations fisheries; (3) incidental impacts during commercial and First Nations fisheries directed at Chinook, Chum, and especially Fraser Sockeye Salmon which will see a dominant late run return in 2024. The Canadian fishery regimes affecting Coho Salmon are expected to be driven by Canadian domestic allowable impacts on the Thompson River component of the IFR management unit, Fraser Chinook concerns and Fraser Sockeye stocks of concern co-migrating with the late run.

In years prior to 2014, Canadian fisheries were managed so as not to exceed a 3% maximum . In May 2014, Canada decided to permit up to a 16% on upper Fraser Coho Salmon in Canadian fisheries to allow for impacts in fisheries directed at a record Fraser Sockeye forecast. Since 2015, upper Fraser Coho Salmon in Canadian fisheries have been managed per low status limitations. The projected status of Canadian coho in 2024 indicates continuing concerns for the condition of Interior Fraser Coho Salmon. The Interior Fraser Coho Salmon is anticipated to remain in low abundance status, resulting in a requirement to constrain the total mortality fishery for 2024 Southern U.S. fisheries to a maximum of 10.0%.

3.3.1 Development of Canadian Preseason Coho FRAM Inputs

The US preseason Coho FRAM modeling requires Canadian inputs to complete the model for the US domestic planning and this also enables the pre to post season Coho FRAM evaluation of both Parties’ fisheries. The Canadian data used to inform Coho FRAM for annual US preseason planning and joint postseason evaluation are outlined below:

Preseason:

  • Stocks’ abundance forecasts, or;
  • Regional expected marine survival rates, based on indicator stocks;
  • FRAM fishery scalars by Coho FRAM time period from postseason analysis of a fishery plan similar to anticipated fishing patterns

Inseason:

  • FRAM fishery adjustments or significant deviations in expected abundance / catch

Postseason:

  • Stocks’ observed escapement, or;
  • Regional observed marine survival rates;
  • Fisheries’ observed catch by FRAM time period

Canadian FRAM Stock Abundance Inputs:

US FRAM preseason modeling requires forecasts of Canadian stocks. Forecast development commences every year in early March, and is provided to US FRAM modelers in mid to late March for use at the second NOF meeting, prior to the April PFMC meeting.

To obtain these values Canadian forecast methodology uses the following information:

  1. Annual hatchery production
  2. Base Period FRAM natural production
  3. Base Period hatchery production
  4. Predicted marine survival
  5. Base Period marine survival
  6. Base Period FRAM stock abundance values

Estimates of freshwater production (smolt out-migrants) for hatchery produced Coho Salmon, by FRAM production region, are scaled to Base Period production. Next the annual expected regional marine survival (MS) is scaled to Base Period marine survival. Both ratios are applied to a stock’s Base Period Abundance to produce the annual adult abundance forecasts. To illustrate (by stock):

\[\text{Adult H Abundance} = \text{(Base Adult Abundance)}\frac{\text{(Annual H Smolts)}}{\text{(Base H Smolts)}} \frac{\text{(Expected MS)}}{\text{(Base MS)}}\]

Hatchery smolt data are obtained from the Canadian Salmon Enhancement Program. Where naturally produced smolt out-migrant estimates exists (2 of 14 Canadian production regions), the values are used. For the production regions where naturally produced smolt data are not available (the remaining 12 of 14 Canadian production regions), the default production starting values has been the same as the annual hatchery output for the same FRAM production region, which assumes similar smolt abundance trends between naturally produced and hatchery smolts occurs across time. (Jeromy comment - “Correct? If so, can we say in a sentence or two how reliable, or potentially unreliable this practice is going forward?”) As hatchery production has been reduced over time it has become necessary to find other means to obtain the surrogates for naturally produced smolt production.

Marine survival expectations have been based upon hatchery and wild indicator returns. As the number of Coho Salmon indicators has been reduced over time it has become necessary to use adjacent indicators to estimate marine survival for some and use hatchery indicators to estimate survival of naturally spawning Coho Salmon.

For IFR, where naturally produced smolt output is not available, the forecasted adult returns are used as inputs to Coho FRAM. This forecast is based on a naive model, usually an average of the previous three years estimated ocean adult abundance. However, the forecast may be “as observed last year” when it appears a longer term average is not appropriate; this was the case for the 2016 fishing year forecast. Several US 2016 forecasts also used the “as observed last year” approach due to the extremely poor returns in 2015 and the observations that those same poor environmental conditions existed for the smolts entering the ocean in 2015 (i.e., the 2016 adults).

Canadian FRAM Fishery Inputs:

Preseason FRAM’s anticipated fishery related mortality for Canadian Coho Salmon retention fisheries is modeled using Fishery Scalars (these Scalars essentially function as a harvest rate within the FRAM) taken from postseason Coho FRAM model runs with similar fishery plans and effort. For example, impacts of the Fraser River Sockeye directed fisheries may be estimated from 4 years previous. The Fraser River pink directed fishery impacts are estimated from the fisheries 2 year previous. The impacts from the Chinook troll fishery are based on a year with a similar Chinook harvest guidelines. The mortality associated with Coho Salmon non-retention regulation is another class of fishery inputs, also taken from previous postseason FRAM model runs under the assumption of similar fishery plans and effort, and similar Coho Salmon abundance levels.

3.3.2 Canadian Inseason Management

Canadian fishery planning process generally concludes in June, with the fisheries directed upon Fraser River salmon (Pinks, Sockeye, and Chum) driven by test fisheries. This later planning process can produce anticipated fishery impacts that diverge from the postseason Canadian fishery scalars used for the US domestic modeling the previous April. In such cases the April FRAM model run can be “updated” to evaluate both Parties compliance with the Coho Agreement.

3.4 Joint Canadian and US Postseason Evaluations

“Backwards Coho FRAM” is used to generate estimates of that are used to evaluate management performance relative to constraints set forth in the . Data required to populate FRAM are not available until one year after the fisheries were prosecuted, thus the 2021 postseason estimates were produced in February of 2023. The Backwards Coho FRAM is also employed to produce estimates of historic reported in this Periodic Report.

Backwards Coho FRAM requires estimated mortalities by fishery strata (uses the Base Period stock-fishery-time steps; terminal IFR fisheries have been incorporated recently) and available estimates of escapements to reconstruct annual cohort abundances and generate post-season estimates of . The escapement estimates for Coho FRAM stocks and catch information (catch, type of fishery –Mark Selective, Non-retention, Quota) for FRAM fisheries are compiled from various government agencies (USA: Federal, State and Tribal; Canada: Federal, and First Nations) and reviewed by the CoTC.

The Backwards Coho FRAM derives total cohort abundance of Coho FRAM stocks through an iterative process of estimating the set of stock abundance scalars that best explain observed escapements and reported catches. FRAM calculation of stock abundance scalars is the preferred method and occurs when escapement data are available (almost all US stocks). When escapement estimates are not available (almost all Canadian stocks), the stock abundance scalars are calculated externally and entered into FRAM; an estimate of “observed” marine survival has been used as a surrogate to recalculate Canadian stock abundances per the preseason method previously described. Consequently, FRAM’s iterative process of estimating a full set of stock abundance scalars is not possible and this has implications for backwards FRAM estimates of abundance for all stocks. Ideally total cohort abundance for each is derived by summing model estimated stock specific: pre-terminal catch, terminal catch, and escapement.

The Backwards Coho FRAM provides two estimates of cohort abundance, termed “Ocean age-3” (OA3) and “January age-3” (JA3). Ocean age-3 abundance includes escapement and fishery impacts. includes escapement, fishery impacts, and natural mortality. is the basis for stock status and is therefore the measure provided in the tables and figures in this report, and in the annual postseason evaluations.

These estimates of cohort abundance, catches and escapements are used to generate estimates of and determine status for post season reporting to the Southern Panel.

3.5 Overview of Coded Wire Tag Use

The use of the term indicator stock within this report does not imply a set list of agreed to indicator stocks. Instead, the CoTC assesses all available data for inclusion in the Mixed-Stock Model (MSM), cohort reconstructions, and other processes. With the base period spanning many years, it is beneficial if a stock is well tagged and well sampled over a long period of time. The coded-wire tag indicator stocks provide the primary data for predicting, monitoring, and modeling harvest impacts on individual Coho Salmon populations. The Joint Coho Technical Committee (CoTC) uses recoveries from the indicator stocks to reconstruct cohorts coastwide. While a few indicator tag groups are naturally-spawning fish, the vast majority consist of hatchery fish intended to represent each . Hatchery indicator stocks are selected on the basis of brood stock, rearing, and release strategies and are assumed to be surrogates for the naturally-spawning fish. The indicator program assumes that tagged and untagged fish experience similar trends in marine survival and similar exploitation patterns. Coastwide, approximately eight million juvenile Coho Salmon are coded-wire tagged annually (Nandor et al. 2010).

Some major changes in the indicator stock program have occurred since the was signed in 1985. One of the most notable changes is the mass marking of hatchery fish in the Pacific Northwest. For many years, an adipose fin clip was used as an external mark to identify fish (natural spawning or hatchery) with a . However, since brood year 1995 in the US and 1996 in Canada, the adipose fin clip has been used as a mass mark to identify hatchery-origin fish and no longer uniquely indicates a coded-wire-tagged fish. With the advent of mark-selective fishing, marked (adipose fin-clipped) and unmarked fish do not have the same patterns of exploitation, violating the fundamental assumption of the indicator tag program. These changes in marking and fishing have resulted in the development and use of double index tag (DIT) releases in the indicator tag programs. The group consists of two groups of hatchery fish, each 100% tagged with its own unique . The two groups are presumed to be identical, except that one tagged group is unmarked and the other group is marked with an adipose fin clip. In a MSF, catches of marked fish will be retained whereas catches of unmarked fish will be released. The difference in return rates to the hatchery reflects the difference in ocean ERs in selective fisheries. A group is recommended when the stock of interest is expected to be exploited by a mark-selective fishery (MSF). Unpaired (non-DIT) tag groups are either marked or unmarked and are considered single index tag (SIT) groups in this document.

To obtain unbiased estimates of fishery-specific impacts on individual stocks, a known proportion of both the catch and escapement must be sampled for throughout the migratory range of the stock and the proportion sampled must be adequate to produce a statistically reliable expansion of sampled Coho Salmon Mass marking creates the following two additional complexities for sampling of : (1) stocks are unmarked but contain ; and (2) marked fish do not necessarily contain . Therefore, all fish, not just marked fish (with an adipose fin-clip), must be sampled for . Detection of in unmarked fish requires electronic sampling using wands or tubes. Detection of in marked fish requires either field-based electronic sampling or collection of snouts for processing in the laboratory. For complete accounting, fish must be sampled throughout their range, in catch and escapement. Electronic sampling of both unmarked and marked Coho Salmon places an additional burden of time and expense on agencies

At present, the utility of the programs and the programs in general for Coho Salmon is reduced due to low tagging rates, insufficient representation (list which ones lack DITs - look at Table below), low recovery rates, and incomplete coastwide coverage of electronic sampling programs (Pacific Salmon Commission Coded Wire Tag Workgroup 2008). In addition, the programs: (1) currently provide overall differences in ocean – can’t discriminate individual fisheries; (2) have sample sizes that are generally small, so confidence limits are wide and estimates of differential impacts are imprecise; (3) are expensive and agencies are reluctant to fund tagging programs; and (4) unmarked fish are unavailable for harvest in MSFs.

Most in the US have indicator stocks and programs. However, some of the programs have been eliminated in recent years due to budgetary constraints. Canada has discontinued all of their Coho Salmon programs. The current Coho Salmon indicator stocks for each and the brood years with groups are listed below. The tag codes used in the Mixed-Stock-Model to develop the FRAM base period for catch years 1986-1997 are also listed below. All groups released within US to date are also listed below.

3.5.1 Wild Stock Tagging programs

When developing the FRAM base period, the CoTC used wild indicator stocks to represent a when the data was available. The figures below summarize data currently reported in on coded-wire-tagged wild Coho Salmon smolts released within the . Most of the reported wild stock tagging has occurred in the Grays Harbor, and Queets ; followed by Strait of Georgia, Hood Canal, Skagit, and Lower Fraser . However, no wild stock tagging has been reported in the Lower Fraser since brood year 2007. Very little wild stock tagging has taken place in the remaining . Not all of the data depicted was used in the MSM and subsequent cohort reconstructions.

Figure 3.1: Total number of wild Coho Salmon smolts caught, tagged, and released by clip status for each Management Unit over brood years 1983 through 2020 (data downloaded from RMIS 9-6-2023).

3.5.2 Hatchery Tagging Programs

When wild stock tagging was insufficient to represent a , the CoTC used hatchery indicator stocks to represent the . The figures below summarize all coded-wire-tagged hatchery Coho Salmon smolts released within the that are currently reported in . The total number of hatchery coded-wire-tagged fish released annually within the has varied over the years, with a low of approximately 1.4 million for brood year 2003 and a high of over 3 million for brood year 2020. With the advent of mass-marking in the 1990s, hatcheries began to release unmarked tag groups as early as brood year 1993. Most of these unmarked and tagged fish are part of a program.

Figure 3.2: Total number of hatchery Coho Salmon smolts released by clip status for all Management Units combined over brood years 1983 through 2020 (data downloaded from RMIS 9-6-2023). “CWT_Unclipped_DIT” refer to tagged fish that are released with an intact adipose fin and are associated with a clipped release group. “CWT_Unclipped” are tagged fish that are unclipped but not associated with another tagged release group. These fish are often associated with new hatchery programs.

Hatchery stock tagging has consistently occurred in every , with the exception of the Stillaguamish and the Hoh where very few hatchery fish are released. Double-index-tagging programs were implemented in all but the Stillaguamish and the Hoh ; however, programs currently exist only in the US .

Figure 3.3: Total number of tagged hatchery Coho Salmon smolts released by clip status for each over brood years 1983 through 2020 (data downloaded from RMIS 9-6-2023). “CWT_Unclipped_DIT” refer to tagged fish that are released with an intact adipose fin and are associated with a clipped release group. “CWT_Unclipped” are tagged fish that are unclipped but not associated with another tagged release group. These fish are often associated with new hatchery programs.

3.5.3 Total Hatchery Production

Reported hatchery production across the varies widely, from approximately 33,000 on average annually in the Stillaguamish MU , to an average of 5.4 million smolts released into the Strait of Georgia annually (data summarized over brood years 1983-2020). Prior to the advent of mass marking, some hatchery fish were released coded-wire-tagged with their adipose-fin clipped to identify it as a tagged fish, while the remaining fish were released unclipped and untagged. Beginning in 1995, programs began and their associated releases were mass-marked. Now, almost all of the hatchery production released into the in the US are mass-marked.

Figure 3.4: Total number of hatchery Coho Salmon smolts released by tag and clip status for each over brood years 1983 through 2020 (data downloaded from RMIS 9-6-2023). “CWT_Unclipped_DIT” refer to tagged fish that are released with an intact adipose fin and are associated with a clipped release group. “CWT_Unclipped” are tagged fish that are unclipped but not associated with another tagged release group. These fish are often associated with new hatchery programs.

4 Performance of Abundance Based Management Regime

In an attempt to evaluate the implementation of Abundance Based Management of Coho Salmon stocks of concern under the , summaries on abundance categories, exploitation, and forecast performance are provided below. Catch years summarized include 2004 through 2021 and abundance category and forecast performance summaries are limited to US and Interior Fraser River . A single year of post-season estimates of abundances, fishery exploitation, and escapement is first completed two years following each catch year. For example, an assessment of catch year 2022 will be completed in February of 2024. This report has been referred to as the Annual ER Report. This assessment is presented to the Southern Panel at the ’s Annual Meeting and the reports are posted on the CoTC’s and Southern Panel’s Sharepoint sites. The best available data and the most current FRAM base period and Terminal Area Management Modules (TAMMs) are used to evaluate the catch year; however, data and the FRAM base period is updated or corrected on occasion. These corrections and additions are carried forward and are included in the post-season evaluations of below, sometimes resulting in changes from the annual reports in estimates of , escapement numbers, and Ocean Age-3 abundances.

4.1 Management Unit Post-season Abundances and Categories

Currently all of the except the Lower Fraser River and Georgia Strait have abundance break point criteria and associated for each abundance category. During catch years 2004 through 2021, were considered Abundant 43% of the time, Moderate 24% of the time, and the remaining 32% were in Low status. Interior Fraser was assigned Low status throughout the entire period assessed. US Inside were assigned an Abundant status less often (39% of the time) than US Outside (60%), while they were both assigned Low status nearly at equal rates (26 vs 24%). Over this 18 year period, it appears that Low status was more often assigned post-season beginning with catch year 2015, when 80% were in Low status. During catch years 2015 to present, 50% of the assignments were Low status. The US Strait of Juan de Fuca, Queets, and Grays Harbor were assigned Low status in three or more consecutive catch years beginning with catch year 2015. A summary of abundances and associated categories are provided in the following table and figure.

Table 4.1: Post-season estimates of Ocean Age-3 total abundances and their associated status categories [A = abundant, M = moderate, L= low] by MU for catch years 2004 through 2021. Management Units in the Abundant category have green highlighted cells, Moderate ones are not highlighted, and those in Low status are highlighted orange.
PSC_StockName 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Canada
Lower Fraser 67,385 16,843 17,386 74,841 3,471 21,561 26,647 16,809 16,819 16,872 4,107 16,863 48,764 16,802 48,897 42,572 85,395 47,539 78,093
Interior Fraser 46,451 15,999 8,800 66,052 18,015 25,063 43,318 30,292 65,014 71,415 26,551 15,021 64,867 26,777 38,098 54,777 82,191 87,210 80,129
Strait of Georgia 306,419 48,138 51,218 220,554 15,361 65,107 80,449 26,576 28,866 57,344 42,333 12,750 12,356 12,636 45,757 32,727 109,574 140,232 128,444
US Inside
Skagit 169,157 [A] 52,362 [M] 11,518 [L] 84,423 [A] 35,458 [M] 87,600 [A] 64,581 [A] 78,116 [A] 139,009 [A] 150,661 [A] 51,696 [M] 15,512 [L] 44,736 [M] 22,278 [L] 36,911 [M] 27,499 [M] 41,468 [M] 111,989 [A] 124,042 [A]
Stillaguamish 66,035 [A] 30,687 [A] 10,804 [M] 51,708 [A] 16,874 [M] 30,871 [A] 16,753 [M] 61,324 [A] 60,518 [A] 78,066 [A] 49,138 [A] 5,455 [L] 15,619 [M] 6,918 [L] 30,885 [A] 16,165 [M] 24,654 [A] 42,702 [A] 59,711 [A]
Snohomish 289,505 [A] 133,924 [A] 94,754 [M] 157,393 [A] 49,412 [L] 134,407 [A] 54,375 [M] 137,411 [A] 175,650 [A] 175,980 [A] 66,635 [M] 27,593 [L] 54,137 [M] 23,190 [L] 77,581 [M] 48,671 [L] 47,717 [L] 109,873 [M] 93,201 [M]
Hood Canal 199,071 [A] 54,731 [A] 51,153 [A] 88,814 [A] 40,827 [M] 58,159 [A] 14,526 [L] 56,824 [A] 125,109 [A] 37,882 [M] 69,596 [A] 63,699 [A] 31,828 [M] 34,963 [M] 18,696 [L] 14,666 [L] 23,616 [M] 45,719 [A] 20,007 [M]
US Strait JDF 21,816 [M] 10,933 [L] 4,184 [L] 8,613 [L] 3,487 [L] 16,743 [M] 20,053 [M] 11,715 [M] 12,534 [M] 9,800 [L] 13,811 [M] 4,711 [L] 8,692 [L] 5,856 [L] 5,939 [L] 5,258 [L] 9,200 [L] 22,440 [M] 18,396 [M]
US Outside
Quillayute 14,090 [A] 20,820 [A] 9,455 [M] 10,672 [A] 10,018 [M] 12,475 [A] 17,083 [A] 13,348 [A] 12,815 [A] 15,788 [A] 17,258 [A] 4,800 [L] 11,696 [A] 12,931 [A] 8,666 [M] 10,905 [A] 9,107 [M] 11,578 [A] 16,266 [A]
Hoh 5,366 [A] 8,217 [A] 2,064 [L] 4,904 [A] 3,970 [A] 12,023 [A] 11,375 [A] 12,978 [A] 8,089 [A] 9,152 [A] 9,136 [A] 2,928 [M] 5,417 [A] 6,044 [A] 3,739 [A] 5,157 [A] 5,386 [A] 7,790 [A] 11,686 [A]
Queets 13,445 [A] 12,149 [A] 8,695 [M] 6,828 [L] 7,335 [M] 18,733 [A] 20,070 [A] 15,170 [A] 9,194 [M] 9,932 [A] 12,903 [A] 2,748 [L] 6,070 [L] 6,797 [L] 3,446 [L] 3,944 [L] 5,126 [L] 5,261 [L] 17,811 [A]
Grays Harbor 68,872 [A] 73,009 [A] 26,881 [L] 34,718 [L] 51,708 [M] 113,275 [A] 117,353 [A] 86,208 [A] 103,923 [A] 80,323 [A] 152,912 [A] 31,714 [L] 35,331 [L] 37,344 [L] 60,777 [A] 50,994 [M] 31,581 [L] 77,315 [A] 79,356 [A]

Estimated post-season ocean age-3 cohort abundances for the are depicted below. Abundances for BC and US Inside tend to be synchronous, with above- or below-average abundances occurring in the same years (e.g., high in 2001, low in 2006). Outside are less synchronous and years with high abundances for Grays Harbor don’t necessarily correspond to high abundances for other .

Figure 4.1: Estimated Post-season Ocean Age-3 Abundances of BC Coho Salmon Management Units
Figure 4.2: Estimated Post-season Ocean Age-3 Abundances of US Inside Coho Salmon Management Units
Figure 4.3: Estimated Post-season Ocean Age-3 Abundances of US Outside Coho Salmon Management Units
Figure 4.4: Summary of the number of in each abundance category each year, based on post-season assessments of Ocean Age-3 Abundances.

4.1.1 Fishery Exploitaion Rate Overview

Recent catch years with the highest estimated average over all include catch years 2014 (42%) and 2015 (43%), while the experienced the lowest , on average, in catch years 2016 (16%) and 2021 (14%). Estimates of post-season total by for catch years 2011 through 2021 are listed in the table below, while average by and FRAM fishery are depicted in the figures below.

Canadian

Over catch years 2011 through 2021, the Canadian experienced varying from a low of 6.5% by the Strait of Georgia in 2021 to a high of 56.8% by the Lower Fraser in 2014. The averaged 21.5% over all years for the Lower Fraser River , followed by the Interior Fraser at 16.9%, and Strait of Georgia at 16.8%.

US Inside

US Inside were the lowest for the US Strait of Juan de Fuca at 3.0% in 2016 and were the highest at 68.3% for the Hood Canal in 2014. The averaged 48.5% over all years for the Hood Canal , followed by the Skagit at 39.6%, Snohomish at 23.8%, Stillaguamish at 21.3%, and US Strait of Juan de Fuca at 10.2%.

US Outside

Over catch years 2011 through 2021, the US Outdside also experienced a large range of , from a low of 3.8% by the Quillayute in 2021 to a high of 69.0% by the Hoh in 2013. The averaged 41.7% over all years for the Hoh , followed by the Quillayute at 36.6%, the Queets at 34.8%, the Grays Harbor at 34.6%, and Strait of Georgia at 16.8%.

(ToDo - need to move Canadian MUs to top of table and bold the values when the ERs exceeded the caps)

Total exploitation rates by MU, catch years 2011 through 2021.
PSC_StockName 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
US Inside
Skagit 43.8% 33.3% 43.1% 52.0% 62.7% 19.9% 9.4% 48.4% 48.2% 42.6% 32.6% 25.6%
Stillaguamish 18.5% 25.4% 22.6% 27.1% 46.6% 16.5% 11.8% 22.5% 20.3% 12.6% 10.6% 9.9%
Snohomish 18.9% 25.6% 28.5% 30.6% 53.6% 18.5% 21.5% 25.1% 17.2% 10.6% 11.2% 8.1%
Hood Canal 57.1% 58.6% 57.7% 68.3% 58.7% 40.1% 35.6% 57.3% 46.1% 28.7% 24.8% 54.1%
US Strait JDF 8.4% 12.1% 13.7% 16.8% 18.1% 3.0% 5.6% 7.9% 12.0% 7.1% 7.1% 7.7%
US Outside
Quillayute 39.6% 54.4% 55.3% 57.1% 47.1% 18.4% 42.3% 29.7% 37.2% 17.2% 3.7% 18.8%
Hoh 39.2% 50.8% 69.0% 51.8% 39.2% 7.9% 42.9% 34.4% 56.6% 49.2% 17.9% 30.4%
Queets 40.1% 49.8% 38.2% 42.2% 36.3% 24.9% 22.9% 35.9% 41.3% 41.8% 9.7% 30.1%
Grays Harbor 38.9% 47.1% 44.4% 44.9% 48.5% 11.5% 32.3% 21.9% 39.6% 28.6% 22.4% 28.8%
Canada
Lower Fraser 23.6% 17.9% 27.6% 56.8% 42.0% 12.4% 12.4% 12.0% 14.0% 9.6% 7.7% 10.3%
Interior Fraser 14.3% 14.5% 20.6% 35.3% 24.0% 9.2% 9.7% 15.3% 20.0% 13.4% 9.5% 12.4%
Strait of Georgia 16.5% 15.9% 25.8% 32.1% 30.1% 9.9% 9.7% 14.3% 16.2% 7.4% 6.5% 8.8%

4.1.2 Forecast Performance

Forecasts are integral to Coho Salmon management in the Pacific Northwest. These forecasts, as described earlier, are used in pre-season assessments to determine allowable fishing mortality on stocks of concern. In the absence of in-season management controls, forecasts that are too high may yield higher than agreed to exploitation of management units of concern. Forecasts that are too low may yield losses in fishing opportunities.

Pre-season forecasts of all of the over the catch years 2004 through 2021 have often (63%) been within the abundance based categories assigned post-season. Forecasts were too high 24% of the time and too low 13% of the time. The forecasts for catch years 2005 and 2011 were very good, resulting in no change in abundance categories from pre- to post-season estimates of abundance. Forecasts were poor for catch years 2006, 2015, and 2021, where less than 50% of the forecasted were within the abundance category assigned post-season. There does not appear to be an obvious trend in forecast performance of abundance categories across all with available forecasts over catch years 2004 through 2021.

Figure 4.5: Comparison of pre-season abundance to post-season abundance based on whether the abundance category was correctly predicted, for all MUs.

Pre-season forecasts for the five US Inside over catch years 2004 through 2021 were within the abundance based categories assigned post-season 54% of the time, too high 28% of the time, and too low 18% of the time. Forecasting was poor for catch years 2006 and 2010, where only 1 was forecasted within the abundance category assigned post-season. In addition, only two of the five forecasted were within the abundance category assigned post-season in each of eight additional catch years. Forecasts were more often correct (72% of the years) for the Hood Canal , followed by the US Strait of Juan de Fuca (56%), Skagit and Stillaguamish (50%), and least correct for the Snohomish (44% of the years).

Figure 4.6: Comparison of pre-season abundance to post-season abundance based on whether the abundance category was correctly predicted, for US Inside MUs.

Forecasts for the US Outside performed better, on average, than the US Inside forecasts of abundance categories. Pre-season forecasts for the four US Outside over catch years 2004 through 2021 were within the abundance based categories assigned post-season 64% of the time, too high 25% of the time, and too low 11% of the time. The forecasts for catch years 2005, 2009-2011, and 2014 were very good, resulting in no change in abundance categories from pre- to post-season estimates of abundance. Forecasting performance was poor for catch years 2006, 2015, and 2021. Forecasts were more often correct (72% of the years) for the Hoh and Quillayute , followed by the Queets (61%), and least correct for the Grays Harbor (50% of the years).

Figure 4.7: Comparison of pre-season abundance to post-season abundance based on whether the abundance category was correctly predicted, for US Outside MUs.

4.2 Management Unit Descriptions and Assessment of Performance

This section of the report focuses on descriptions of the individual within the current .

4.2.1 Interior Fraser River

This description was prepared by Canadian members of the Coho Technical Committee.

4.2.1.1 Biological and Geographic Description

The Interior Fraser River (IFR) consists of Coho Salmon that re-colonized the IFR and tributaries above Hells Gate in the Fraser Canyon (Figure 4.8) at the end of the last period of glaciation, colonizing from glacial refugia in the Columbia River basin (Northcote and Larkin 1989). Hells Gate in the Fraser Canyon was identified as a natural boundary that separates Fraser River Coho Salmon populations into Interior and Lower Fraser units. The Coho Salmon encompasses the North, South and mainstem Thompson river drainages as well as the mainstem Fraser River beginning at Fraser Pass in Mount Robson Provincial Park and terminating at Hells Gate.

Within the , five distinct Wild Salmon Policy (WSP) for Coho Salmon have been designated using molecular genetics and ecotypology (Table 4.2) (Holtby and Ciruna 2007). These populations correspond to the five major Coho Salmon bearing regions within the Interior Fraser River; three within the Thompson (North Thompson, South Thompson, and Lower Thompson regions) and two within the Fraser (the area between the Fraser Canyon and the Thompson-Fraser confluence and the Fraser River and tributaries above the Thompson-Fraser confluence).

Migration among different Thompson River basins and between Thompson and non-Thompson drainages is sufficiently restricted to permit local adaptations to occur (Irvine et al. 2000). Coho Salmon of the Fraser Canyon population are quite distinct from other Coho Salmon populations, and appear to be partially related to those of the Lower Fraser River, implying that some genetic exchange may occur between those areas. Irvine et al. (2000) noted that, based on genetic information, subdivision of the designated unit beyond these five populations was not warranted. However, while the genetic data does not suggest the presence of additional populations, many of the five populations comprise vast areas of the Fraser River basin, within which demographically independent groups may exist. Such groups have been defined as sub-populations (Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Team 2006). Sub-populations within a population may not be isolated enough from each other to be differentiated based on neutral allele composition; however, they may have different life history traits, productivities, and population dynamics. Generally, the distance in spawning areas between sub-populations reduces their ability to act as source populations if a major mortality event occurs in freshwater that only impacts one sub-population (e.g., Big Bar landslide occurred in-between two pre-defined sub-populations).

Figure 4.8: Pacific Salmon Treaty Coho boundaries in Canada. Note: The Georgia Basin West has since been renamed Strait of Georgia Vancouver Island (SGVI) and Georgia Basin East is now Strait of Georgia Mainland (SGML).
Figure 4.9: Interior and Lower Fraser MU Watersheds
Table 4.2: Populations and Sub-populations within the Interior Fraser Coho Salmon Management Unit
Population Description
Fraser Canyon Coho salmon originating from the Fraser River and tributaries upstream of Hells Gate and downstream of the Fraser-Thompson confluence. No sub-populations.
Middle Fraser Coho salmon originating from the Fraser River and tributaries upstream of the Fraser-Thompson confluence. Two subpopulations: Lower Middle and Upper Middle Fraser
North Thompson Coho salmon originating from the North Thompson River watershed including the mainstem, lakes, and tributaries upstream of the confluence of the North and South Thompson rivers. Three subpopulations: Upper, Middle and Lower North Thompson.
South Thompson Coho salmon originating from the South Thompson River including the mainstem, lakes, and tributaries upstream of the confluence with the North Thompson River. Three subpopulations: Adams River Drainage, Shuswap Lake tributaries and Shuswap River tributaries.
Lower Thompson Coho salmon originating in the Lower Thompson River including mainstem, lakes, and tributaries downstream of the confluence of the North and South Thompson rivers. Two subpopulations: Mainstem Lower Thompson tributaries and Nicola River and tributaries.

The entire Fraser River watershed drains a 220,000 km2 (85,000 mi2) area with an average flow at the mouth of about 3,475 m3/s (122,700 ft3/s). The average flow is highly seasonal and spring/summer discharge rates can be ten times larger than winter flow.

The Fraser River originates 1370 km from its mouth as a spring at Fraser Pass in the Rocky Mountains near Jasper B.C., then flows north to the Yellowhead Highway and west past Mount Robson to the Rocky Mountain Trench and the Robson Valley near Valemount. It makes a sharp turn to the south at Giscome Portage, meeting the Nechako River at the city of Prince George, then continuing south, joining with the Quesnel River at the town of Quesnel and progressively cutting deeper and deeper into the Fraser Plateau to form the Fraser Canyon from roughly the confluence of the Chilcotin River, near the city of Williams Lake, southwards. It is joined by the Bridge and Seton Rivers at the town of Lillooet, then by the Thompson River at Lytton.

The Thompson River is the largest tributary of the Fraser River and it contains three of the five CUs in the Interior Fraser River . The Thompson River basin drains 56,000 km2 (22,000 mi2) with an average flow in the main stem (measured near Spences Bridge before Lytton) of 773 m3/s (27,300 ft3/s). The two major tributaries of the Thompson River, the North and South Thompson rivers, join at the city of Kamloops. The North Thompson originates at the Thompson Glacier near Valemount. The South Thompson River originates from Little Shuswap Lake but there are serval major Coho Salmon spawning systems (e.g., Adams River, Shuswap River, etc) that drain into Shuswap Lake that is connected to Little Shuswap Lake by the Little River.

From Lytton southwards, the Fraser River runs through a progressively deeper canyon between the Lillooet Ranges of the Coast Mountains on its west and the Cascade Mountains on its east. Nahatlatch River, the primary spawning location of the Fraser Canyon , flows into the Fraser River from the west about 24 km (15 mi) upstream of Hell’s Gate. At Hell’s Gate, located immediately downstream of the town of Boston Bar, where the canyon walls narrow dramatically, the entire volume of the river is forced through a canyon 35 m (115 ft) wide. At Yale, the canyon opens up and the river is wider, though without much adjoining lowland until Hope, where the river begins to form a broad plain travelling 130 more kilometres and meeting up with four more major tributaries (Chilliwack, Harrison, Sumas and Pitt rivers), from Yale to the Port Mann Bridge at Coquitlam it picks up an average of 30% more flow before discharging into the Strait of Georgia.

Recreational, environmental conservation, and commercial forest activities are prevalent in all areas of the IFR Coho Salmon basin to varying degrees across the five . The Fraser Canyon is primarily only impacted by forestry. The other four CUs are impacted largely by forestry and agriculture. The entire is impacted by development and linearization in the lower Fraser River, which could impact juvenile rearing and smolting as well as early upstream adult migration. Further descriptions of habitat status and land use can be found in COSEWIC 2016 and (Arbeider 2020).

There are no major dams or other large anthropogenic fish passage impediments located in the . Under certain conditions, water velocities in the Fraser River at Hells Gate in the Fraser Canyon, and in the area referred to as Little Hells Gate in the North Thompson River near Avola could impede upstream passage. In 1914 a major landslide occurred in Hells Gate that greatly impeded salmon passage. The slide was mostly cleared in 1915 but construction of fishways began in 1944 after research was conducted by the International Pacific Salmon Fisheries Commission (IPSFC) (International Pacific Salmon Fisheries Commission 1945).

4.2.1.2 Management Framework

Objectives

The Coho Salmon is managed by and contains five natural (wild) populations (or ), each with 1-3 subpopulations as described by the Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Team (Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Team 2006). Hatchery production is auxiliary to the but integral to the objectives.

Since the decline in abundance of Coho Salmon in the 1990s, many fisheries within Canada have been managed to minimize catch of natural-origin Coho Salmon to align with the Sustainable Fisheries Framework; with abundance and survival based objectives eventually being implemented. Sub-population-level abundance based objectives were first identified by the IFCRT and have since been expanded on through several assessments ((Decker et al. 2014); (Korman et al. 2019)). Following engagement with First Nations and stakeholders, combined abundance and survival objectives were formalized. The survival portion of the objectives rely on hatchery-reared CWT indicator stocks, which have been used as an index that correlates with overall productivity of the Coho Salmon . Therefore, the Coho Salmon is managed such that all sub-populations are maintained within the and with the relative productivity of the population also dictating caps.

In 1998, with the recognition of productivity declines affecting Coho Salmon survival, announced that the objective of their fishery management actions would be conservation of wild Coho Salmon. Canadian fisheries were planned to produce no greater than 3-5% mortality on Thompson River Coho Salmon in order to increase numbers of naturally spawning Coho Salmon in the and thereby reverse declining trends in abundance. Though no change in Coho status was determined, fisheries in 2014 were planned with a cap of 16% Canadian to maximize fishing opportunities on abundant sockeye returns through increased allowance of IFC bycatch. In 2015, the Canadian fisheries were planned to be no more than 10%. Since 2016, Canadian was planned to be between 3-5% and US fisheries were allowed up to 10% .

In 2018, work was completed to identify potential caps and allocations (DFO 2018, (Korman et al. 2019)). At low status, each country has a cap of 10%, for a total bilateral cap of 20%. At moderate status, the US cap is 12% with a bilateral cap of 30%, leaving Canada a default cap of 18%. At abundant status, the US cap is 15% with a bilateral cap of 45%, leaving Canada a default cap of 30%. Previous caps that were suggested included 20% at Low status, 40% at Moderate, and 65% at Abundant.

Management Reference Points were developed that incorporate biological reference points from a number of previous sources (Table 4.3). The Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Team (Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Team 2006) determined that a lower benchmark should maintain a minimum 3-year geometric average abundance of 1,000 naturally spawning wild (or natural-origin) Coho Salmon in at least half of the subpopulations (11 subpopulations) within each of the five local populations (CUs; 1-3 subpopulations per ). This was based on consideration of the effective population size necessary to conserve genetic diversity (Waples 2002).

An empirical analysis conducted by the (Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Team 2006) and a more recent IFC Risk Assessment report (Decker et al. 2014) indicated that a total escapement of 20,000 25,000 (3-year geometric mean) would be required to meet the IFCRT above mentioned objective. This benchmark exceeds 7,000 spawners (exactly half of the subpopulations) because the subpopulations differ in productivity and potential carrying capacity, and they would not all be expected to have the same status at any one time. The analysis was updated in 2018 (Korman et al. 2019) and produced a similar total escapement target, 28,000, to achieve the aforementioned objective but did not use a 3-year geometric mean in their analysis.

By comparison, the IFCRT’s lower benchmark is about half of the benchmark of 35,000 50,000 individuals proposed by Irvine et al. (2001), This benchmark was derived from the reference points of 4.3 and 6.1 females per km, assuming a 1:1 sex ratio, and converting the female density values to escapements using the IFCRT’s estimate of 4,071 linear kms of suitable spawning habitat for the Coho Salmon in the interior Fraser River watershed (Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Team 2006).

An upper benchmark of 1,000 naturally spawning wild (or natural-origin) Coho Salmon in every subpopulation was proposed by the Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Team (2006) as a rebuilding objective, which was indicated as having a high probability of success around 40,000 spawners (3-year geometric mean). A logistic regression performed by Decker et al. (2014) predicted that the probability of meeting the long term objective increased from near 0% at an aggregate escapement of 18,000, to 50% at 31,000, to 98% at 40,000. The logistic regression analysis was preformed again in 2018 (Korman et al. 2019) but reported that the 95% probability of meeting the long-term objective was 91,000 spawners, but they did not analyze the data using 3-year geometric means.

The most recent Coho Wild Salmon Policy (WSP) Status assessment (Parken et al., unpublished) used spawner recruit analysis to determine 80% SMSY (17,146) and Sgen (8,654) as proposed delineations between green/amber and amber/red zones. The assessment used an approach where WSP status was determined through an integration of a number of sources of information including abundance over time and productivity. The stock recruit information was generally thought to be of low value in the determination of status as the error bounds indicated a high degree of uncertainty.

The work in 2018 to identify potential Management Reference Points (DFO 2018, (Korman et al. 2019)) included spawner escapement but also a CWT smolt-to-adult (or “marine”) survival index (last column of Table below). It was apparent that the decrease in recruitment that occurred in the early 1990s coincided with a decrease in survival, based on the CWT survival index. The original proposed reference points were solely based on survival, but after engagement workshops, both survival and abundance metrics were included in the reference points. The Low status threshold is triggered if the survival index is less than or equal to 3%. A moderate status is assigned when at least three consecutive years of survival are greater than 3% and there are three consecutive years where either half of the subpopulations in each have greater than 1,000 spawners or the moderate aggregate escapement objective is met (e.g. 27,000 spawners). An abundant status is assigned when at least three consecutive years of survival are greater than 6% and there are three consecutive years where either half of the subpopulations in each have greater than 1,000 spawners or the abundant aggregate escapement objective is met (e.g., 40,000 spawners).

Table 4.3: Previous proposed biological reference points and current Management Reference Point (circa 2018).
Benchmark/Status IFCRT Irvine et al. 2001 Decker et al. 2014 WSP Benchmarks 2018 Management Reference Points
Upper/Abundant 1,000 (3-year geomean) in each subpop NA 50% at 31,000 3-year geomean, to 98% at 40,000 3-year geomean 80% of SMSY 17,146 Three consecutive years of survival > 0.06 & IFCRT upper benchmark OR upper Aggregate MU objective
Lower/Moderate 1,000 (3-year geomean) in half the sub-populations within each CU (20-25K 3-year geomean) 35K to 50K (4.3 to 6.0 females/km) 20K 3-year geomean Sgen = 8,654 *similar to the lowest IFR abundance observed Three consecutive years of survival > 0.03 & IFCRT lower benchmark OR lower Aggregate MU objective
Stock Assessment
Indicator Stocks

(Add more summary stats here)

Primarily, coded-wire-tagged smolt releases from Spius hatchery and Chilliwack hatchery, into the Eagle River and Salmon River in the South Thompson and the Coldwater River in the Lower Thompson , and subsequent high precision escapement exercises (primarily fence counts), provide survival rates and act as the indicator stocks for the . Catch of tagged Coho Salmon is recorded by the Mark-Recovery Program. Adipose-fin-clipped and coded-wire-tagged smolt releases into the Eagle River average 47,000; releases into the Coldwater River average 54,000; and releases into the Salmon river average 29,000.

From 1997 to 2002 DIT releases occurred in the Coldwater River (Obrien, in draft)(Table 4.4) and attempts at wild marking in the Eagle River from 2000 to 2009 were unsuccessful due to low capture rates.

Table 4.4: Interior Fraser DIT summary for brood years 1997-2002.
Brood Year Return Year Unmarked Releases Unmarked Escaped Marked Releases Marked Escaped Rel λ Esc λ Odds Ratio Lower CI Upper CI
1997 2000 38312 256 34949 215 1.096 1.191 0.91 0.91 1.3
1998 2001 71676 1343 64916 1264 1.104 1.063 0.89 0.89 1.04
1999 2002 37012 1325 34664 1269 1.068 1.044 0.90 0.90 1.06
2000 2003 30987 158 39091 239 0.793 0.661 0.68 0.68 1.02
2001 2004 38838 313 35586 175 1.091 1.789 1.36 1.36 1.97
2002 2005 41576 166 42100 94 0.988 1.766 1.39 1.39 2.31 

Historically, coded-wire-tagged smolts were also released into Dunn, Louis, Lemieux, and Spius creeks and the Deadman River and were used to derive smolt-to-adult survival or were used in the base period of FRAM.

Figure 4.10: Number of wild fish caught, tagged, and released by clip status, within the Interior Fraser MU over brood years 1983 through 2020.
Figure 4.11: Total number of coded-wire-tagged hatchery Coho Salmon released, by clip status, within the Interior Fraser MU for brood years 1983 through 2020.
Forecast Methods

In 1999, forecasts for southern BC Coho Salmon included Coho for the first time (Holtby et al. 1999). Relative numbers of Coho Salmon returning to the North and South Thompson drainages were predicted. Forecasts for other Coho Salmon populations were not made since data quality was sometimes less than adequate. Forecasting for Coho Salmon returning to the entire Interior Fraser drainage (recruitment, not escapement) began in 2001 and continues annually (e.g. DFO 2012).

Originally, Holtby et al. (1999) concluded that given the data the 3-year average Naïve model (3YRA) was the preferred approach to forecast relative numbers of North and South Thompson Coho Salmon. The model uses the average abundance of the last three return years to forecast the abundance of the next year. As the quality and time-series of information improved in the Lower Thompson River systems those data were included in the annual abundance forecast. The performance of the time-series model is influenced by shifts in the parameters which influence abundance, but the parameters are not dealt with explicitly in the approach. For example, in periods of apparently stable marine survival and low exploitation the 3YRA model is likely adequate to confirm the status of the ; however, annual shifts in productivity (marine or freshwater) or errors in the estimates can result in poor forecast performance.

In more recent forecasts, the forecast model has been chosen by reviewing retrospective performance metrics. Retrospective performance metrics such as mean raw error, mean absolute error, mean percent error, mean absolute percent error, mean absolute scaled error, root mean square error, and the correlation coefficient between forecasts and observed series were calculated to rank the model performance and determine which model performs the best across the time series. For the top performing models, model diagnostics were examined in order to determine if the models reasonably predicted trends in abundance and to ensure that models did not violate assumptions. Both time series models such as the Naïve models (1, 3, and 5 years), ARIMA, and Exponential Smoothing were applied with various data transformations, and a linearized Ricker model that incorporates stock-recruit dynamics are ranked to determine which is used for the forecast each year. The 3YRA has still ranked the highest in most years.

Escapement Monitoring

Interior Fraser River Coho Salmon spawner assessments have changed over the years based on management priorities and available resources, both in terms of the number of systems surveyed and the extent of coverage. Though spawner estimates exist for a few systems prior to 1975 and the accuracy and precision of those estimates are not understood. Between 1975 and 1997, more effort was expended to estimate escapement in the North and South Thompson CUs. Survey coverage was extended in 1984 to include several key tributaries of the Lower Thompson , as well as the Seton and Bridge tributaries of the Middle Fraser . Surveys were mainly conducted by Fisheries Officers and hatchery staff; however, the repeatability, and accuracy of these estimates remain poorly understood.

Beginning in 1998, coverage within all CUs increased with respect to both the number of systems assessed and the extent of coverage within previously assessed systems. Coverage was increased to include the Nahatlatch River (Fraser Canyon ) and Quesnel watershed in the Middle Fraser ; and in 1999 assessment began in the Chilko watershed (Middle Fraser ). In addition, more robust methods were employed, including sonar and fence counts, Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) methodology, mark-recapture, and the calculation of survey life for AUC and expansion factors for peak count estimates based on paired assessments using high precision methods and visual surveys.

Escapement estimates for 1975 to 1997 were revised during the IFCRT recovery teams review (Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Team 2006). Revisions were based on calibration studies where paired assessments were conducted between 1998 and 2000. The calibration approach was described in detail in the Conservation Strategy for Coho Salmon, Interior River Populations (Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Team 2006). It is important to note that escapement estimates for the Middle Fraser and Fraser Canyon CUs for 1975-1997, and for the Lower Thompson for 1975-1983 are based entirely on average ratios of abundance in these CUs to combined abundance in the North and South Thompson CUs during the period from 1998 to 2000 (Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Team 2006). This introduces a substantial degree of uncertainty in the reliably of the earlier portion of the time series for these CUs. Escapement by assessment type is illustrated in (Figure 4.12).

Figure 4.12: Escapement of Interior Fraser River Coho by quality of assessment type.
Fry and Smolt Monitoring

There have been no consistent or basin-wide assessments of fry or smolt densities within the .

Smolt-to-adult survival rates of Coho Salmon from the indicator stocks are shown in (Figure 4.13). Marked Coho Salmon (adipose-fin-clipped) have been released with since 1983 to support fisheries monitoring and creation of a survival index. Although all of these releases may be used for calculating exploitation, some releases included experimental release sizes or timings that may affect survival. It has been shown that there is strong size-selective mortality in the early marine period ((Beamish and Mahnken 2001); (Beamish et al. 2004), etc); therefore, releases need to be fairly uniform to support a long-term survival index. The survival of the Inch Creek index is thus calculated from specific tag codes releases that do not fall out of a normal range of size at release. The index calculation is simply the sum of adult (age 3+) escapement and catch of all tag codes from a given brood year divided by the total release of that given brood year.

For the hatchery indicator stocks the smolt-to-adult survival rate showed a directed downward trend during the early 1990s (brood years) (Figure 4.13). Data from brood years 1985-1999 shows the smolt-to-adult survival rate averaged 3.7% during this time with a high of 7.2% in 1989. More recently Coho Salmon has had an average survival rate of 1.0% between brood years 2000-2017.

Figure 4.13: Smolt-to-adult survival rate index from coded-wire-tagged () Interior Fraser River hatchery Coho smolt releases by brood year. Note that insufficient adipose-fin-clipped smolt releases existed prior 1985 and from brood year 1987 to calculate survival; infilled values are the average of the survival up to and including brood year 1991.
Fishery Monitoring

A fundamental requirement of abundance-based Coho Salmon management under the is that all fishery impacts on individual be annually monitored with respect to both number of fish caught and . This requires basic reporting of total impacts by fishery and the capacity to estimate each fishery’s -specific impacts. Total fishing mortalities for each must be estimated to enable managers the ability to evaluate the annual relative to the -prescribed impact limits.

Assessments of total fishing mortalities for each must include both directed and incidentally-landed catch as well as estimates of non-landed mortalities. These estimates may be obtained through monitoring programs or, in some cases, generated through the use of algorithms built into the Fisheries Regulation Assessment Model (FRAM). Monitoring programs may involve test fisheries or data collected directly from fishers (e.g., through creel survey interviews, and other fisher-reported techniques, such as log books or fish-tickets). Estimation of non-landed fishing mortality requires annual estimates of encounter rates by fishery and gear.

Management-Unit-specific impacts are generally evaluated using the coast-wide system. This system manages information on the release and recovery of coded-wire tags. The volume of tags recovered for a given will depend on tagging rates, marine survival rates, exploitation and escapement rates, and sampling rates in fisheries and escapements. A recent review of methods (Pacific Salmon Commission Coded Wire Tag Workgroup 2008) recommends target sampling rates of 20% for the landed catch and 20% for escapements, with a minimum of 10 tags collected in each fishery or escapement stratum. Since the introduction of fisheries restrictions in 1997 to protect Coho Salmon, reaching the minimum sampling targets for tagged Coho Salmon has seldom been met.

Post-season estimates are also generated using the Post-Season FRAM Model. Post-season estimates of catch and escapement are entered into the updated FRAM model with the same fishery regulation and effort package used for preseason modeling to generate post-season estimates.

Enhancement

Enhancement in the was initiated in the early 1980s. There have been up to 13 enhancement projects producing Coho Salmon as well as habitat restoration ongoing at various sites. Most of the projects are in the Thompson River drainage, with only minor enhancement occurring in other areas of this . There are also numerous community hatcheries that support Indigenous and community activities through the Community Economic Development and Public Involvement Program.

Production peaked during the mid to late 1980s, when different enhancement strategies were being tested for Coho Salmon in the Eagle, Salmon, and Coldwater systems. The objectives were to evaluate the different strategies and to assess the impact of enhanced production on natural stocks ((Perry 1995), (Pitre and Cross 1993)). Supplementation was in the form of spring fed fry, fall fry, and yearling smolt releases. Fish were marked by removing the adipose fin and inserting a coded-wire tag. The success of the enhanced component was measured using survival rates calculated from tag data, while the success of the naturally spawning component was measured by returns of natural spawners.

More recent Coho Salmon enhancement activity has occurred primarily out of Spius Creek hatchery with support from Chilliwack, Deadman, Mid-Shuswap (Shuswap Falls) and Dunn Creek hatcheries as production capacity requires. The systems that support the survival index continue to be Eagle, Salmon, and Coldwater rivers. Each of these systems use a combination of trap boxes and high precision sonar to estimate both escapement and clip rate, which is then used to estimate escapement.

The following hatcheries produce salmon to support and objectives and are located within the Fraser River watershed: 1) Chehalis River Hatchery, located on a tributary of the Harrison River, which is a major tributary of the lower Fraser River; 2) Chilliwack River Hatchery, located on a major tributary of the lower Fraser River; 3) Inch Creek Hatchery, located on a tributary of a large slough connected to the lower Fraser River; 4) Spius Creek Hatchery, located on a tributary of the Nicola that drains into the Thompson River; and 5) Shuswap Falls (Middle Shuswap River) Hatchery. Both the Chilliwack River Hatchery and Spius Creek Hatchery rear Coho Salmon for the indicator stocks for the Interior Fraser River .

The average total hatchery release within the basin was 737,000 fish annually between 1983-2018. Fry releases greatly decreased starting in 1990, from a high of 2,226,000 Coho Salmon fry released for brood year 1986 to a low of 90,500 fry from brood year 1996 (Figure 4.14). After 1996, the total hatchery fry releases have averaged 173,000, primarily in unmarked fry released from community hatcheries. The average hatchery smolt releases within the basin is 227,000 smolts annually between 1983-2018; with relatively smaller fluctuations between total releases.

Since the late 1990s, enhancement for Coho Salmon has taken one of three forms: 1) conservation enhancement, used to protect demes that are at risk of extirpation; 2) assessment enhancement, where releases of marked fish provide information for assessment of survival and minimal encounter rates and ocean distribution; and 3) rebuilding enhancement, where hatchery supplementation is used to increase escapements (Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Team 2006). Enhancement activities are described in more detail by Irvine et al. (1999b), Irvine et al. (2000) and the Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Team (2006). Coded wire tagged and total releases are summarized in Figure 4.14.

Figure 4.14: Hatchery production of Coho Salmon released within the Interior Fraser , brood years 1983 through 2020.

With the advent of technology to automatically remove adipose fins and/or insert using mobile “tagging trailers”, mass marking of hatchery fish was implemented for many Coho Salmon in the mid-1990s (Selective Fishery Evaluation Committee 1999). Mass marking allows mark selective fisheries (MSF) for Coho Salmon in which marked hatchery fish can be retained and unmarked wild fish released, resulting in higher harvest rates on hatchery fish than wild fish. Mass marking was not fully implemented for Coho Salmon from the Fraser River. Only indicator stocks have consistently been marked with both an adipose clip and a and are used in stock assessment. Mark-selective fisheries in Canada are limited; however, a program was operated between brood years 1997-2002 but results were variable and the report unpublished (Table 4.4).

4.2.1.3 Management Performance

Forecast Evaluation

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Table 4.5: Return year observed and forecasted Interior Fraser River Coho Salmon MU pre-fishery abundances from 1998 to 2019. Pre-fishery abundance is estimated by backwards FRAM.
Return Year Forecast Type Forecast Abundance Estimated Abundance Difference Absolute Percent Error
1998 3 year average 62529 32124 30405 0.95
1999 3 year average 47069 28821 18248 0.63
2000 3 year average 32548 25674 6874 0.27
2001 3 year average 28873 69815 40942 0.59
2002 3 year average 41437 64647 23211 0.36
2003 3 year average 53379 27168 26211 0.96
2004 3 year average 53877 49562 4315 0.09
2005 3 year average 47126 17604 29522 1.68
2006 3 year average 31445 11483 19962 1.74
2007 3 year average 26216 69338 43121 0.62
2008 3 year average 32808 19775 13033 0.66
2009 3 year average 33532 26712 6820 0.26
2010 3 year average 38608 46197 7589 0.16
2011 3 year average 30895 33104 2210 0.07
2012 3 year average 35338 65581 30243 0.46
2013 3 year average 48294 71295 23001 0.32
2014 3 year average 56660 28986 27674 0.95
2015 3 year average 55287 16175 39112 2.42
2016 Like Last Year 16175 66032 51772 0.78
2017 3 year average 37065 28022 9043 0.32
2018 3 year average 36743 40758 4015 0.10
2019 Like Last Year 40758 65106 20168 0.31
Figure 4.15: Comparison of preseason abundance predictions with the post-season estimates for the Interior Fraser MU.
Fishery Mortality and Escapement

The base period for the FRAM defines the temporal and spatial distributions of salmon fishing mortalities from each . The current FRAM base period for Coho Salmon includes catch years 1986-1992. During this period, fishing effort, tagging, and fishery sampling of Coho Salmon was high, allowing relatively fine-scale discrimination between salmon distributions. The marine distribution data of marked Coho Salmon populations in Canada was obtained through the Mark Recovery Program (MRP), operated by . Recoveries of coded-wire tagged and adipose-fin-clipped (AFC) marked Coho Salmon from various fisheries provide information on fishery and apparent marine distributions.

During the base period, Coho Salmon production from the contributed to US and Canadian marine sport and commercial fisheries in southern BC, the northern Washington coast, Strait of Juan de Fuca, and inner Puget Sound (Figure 4.16). In general, most were recovered from commercial troll and sport fisheries operating during the summer months off the west coast of Vancouver Island and in the Strait of Georgia. The proportion of the catch of Coho Salmon from fisheries within the Strait of Georgia (inside) compared to fisheries operating off the west coast of Vancouver Island (outside) has varied considerably among years (Figure 4.17). These variations have been correlated with changes in ocean salinity (Kadowaki 1997). During the 1970s and 1980s, large numbers of Coho Salmon remained inside the Strait of Georgia each year and supported large sport and troll fisheries (Simpson et al. 1997). However, in some recent years, most Coho Salmon leave the Strait of Georgia in the fall of their first year, and have become vulnerable to fisheries operating in outside areas (Irvine et al. 1999a). There are relatively few catch distribution data available for Coho Salmon. However, those that are available support the hypothesis that Coho Salmon have similar distributions to many other southern BC Coho Salmon populations. Beamish and Thomson (1999) suggest that these distribution variations were caused by changing ocean conditions driven by climate. Major fishery closures commencing in 1998 have made it more difficult to infer inside-outside distribution changes. The base period for FRAM contains data from only one outside year, 1991.

Table 4.6: Interior Fraser MU average annual (total) and time period specific ERs used in the current FRAM base period.
Fishery Jan-Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct-Dec Total
KMZ Sport 0.01% - - - - 0.01%
Brookings Sport - 0.00% - - - 0.00%
Newport Sport 0.03% 0.10% 0.06% 0.01% - 0.20%
Newport Troll 0.08% 0.23% 0.09% 0.01% - 0.40%
Coos Bay Sport 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% - - 0.07%
Coos Bay Troll 0.03% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00% - 0.14%
Tillamook Sport 0.01% 0.02% 0.03% - - 0.05%
Tillamook Troll 0.03% 0.34% 0.10% 0.01% - 0.48%
Col. Rvr. Buoy 10 Sport - - 0.16% - - 0.16%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Sport 0.02% 0.09% 0.11% - - 0.22%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Troll 0.00% 0.04% - - - 0.04%
WA Area 2 Non-Treaty Troll 0.01% 0.02% 0.10% 0.01% - 0.14%
WA Area 2 Treaty Troll 0.01% 0.06% 0.08% 0.01% - 0.17%
WA Area 2 Sport 0.04% 0.28% 0.26% 0.08% - 0.67%
WA Area 3 Non-Treaty Troll 0.06% 0.01% 0.05% 0.01% - 0.12%
WA Area 3 Treaty Troll 0.07% 0.10% 0.18% 0.02% - 0.38%
WA Area 3 Sport - 0.03% 0.00% 0.02% - 0.05%
WA Area 4 Sport - 0.27% 0.50% 0.15% - 0.92%
WA Area 4/4B Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.03% 0.55% 0.15% - 0.72%
WA Area 4/4B Treaty Troll 0.13% 0.40% 0.95% 0.56% - 2.04%
WA Area 5-6-6C Troll 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.05%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.00% 0.04%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Treaty Net - 0.02% 0.13% 0.37% 0.06% 0.59%
WA Area 7-7A Non-Treaty Net - - 0.02% 2.24% 0.01% 2.27%
WA Area 7-7A Treaty Net - - 0.02% 3.87% 0.02% 3.90%
WA Area 5 Sport (Sekiu) 0.19% 0.63% 1.34% 2.17% 0.17% 4.50%
WA Area 6 Sport (Port Angeles) 0.03% 0.09% 0.07% 0.68% 0.19% 1.06%
WA Area 7 Sport (San Juan Islands) - - 0.11% 0.44% 0.41% 0.95%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Non-Treaty Net - - 0.00% 0.40% 0.09% 0.49%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Treaty Net - - 0.05% 0.57% 0.12% 0.74%
WA Area 8 Non-Treaty Net (Skagit) - - - 0.00% - 0.00%
WA Area 8 Treaty Net (Skagit) - - - 0.01% - 0.01%
WA Area 9 Sport (Admirality Inlet) 0.01% - - 0.04% 0.01% 0.06%
WA Area 8A Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
WA Area 8A Treaty Net - - - 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
WA Area 10 Sport (Seattle) - - - 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
WA Area 10 Non-Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.35% 0.09% 0.44%
WA Area 10 Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.20% 0.05% 0.26%
WA Area 10E Non-Treaty Net (East Kitsap) - - - - 0.00% 0.00%
WA Area 10E Treaty Net (East Kitsap) - - - - 0.01% 0.01%
WA Area 11 Sport (Tacoma) - 0.00% - - 0.02% 0.02%
WA Area 11 Non-Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.03% 0.02% 0.05%
WA Area 11 Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
Upper Fraser R Term Catch - - - - 2.00% 2.00%
Lower Fraser River Sport 0.41% 0.84% 1.28% 0.16% 0.06% 2.76%
Johnstone Strait Troll 0.03% 0.34% 0.15% 0.14% - 0.65%
BC Northern Troll - 0.08% 0.16% 0.01% - 0.25%
BC North Central Troll - 0.06% 0.04% 0.17% - 0.28%
BC South Central Troll 0.03% 1.21% 0.57% 0.12% - 1.93%
NW Vancouver Island Troll 0.09% 6.32% 3.08% 1.68% - 11.17%
SW Vancouver Island Troll 0.09% 13.65% 14.22% 4.93% - 32.89%
Georgia Straits Troll 0.13% 2.24% 0.64% 0.57% - 3.58%
BC Juan de Fuca Troll - 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% - 0.01%
BC Northern Net - 0.02% 0.07% - - 0.09%
BC Central Net - 0.04% 0.02% - - 0.06%
SW Vancouver Island Net - - - 0.10% 0.02% 0.12%
Johnstone Straits Net - 0.07% 1.17% 0.82% 0.06% 2.12%
Georgia Straits Net - - 0.05% 0.06% 0.01% 0.12%
Fraser R Gill Net - - 0.15% 1.10% 1.16% 2.40%
BC Juan de Fuca Net - 0.18% 3.71% 4.24% - 8.12%
Johnstone Strait Sport 0.01% 0.22% 0.23% - - 0.46%
BC Central Sport - 0.05% - - - 0.05%
BC Juan de Fuca Sport 0.40% 0.86% 0.40% 2.06% 0.55% 4.27%
West Coast Vanc Is Sport - 0.06% 0.11% 0.05% - 0.21%
North Georgia Straits Sport 3.75% 2.28% 1.99% 0.84% 0.05% 8.91%
South Georgia Straits Sport 1.87% 0.39% 0.30% 0.23% 0.30% 3.09%
SEAK Southwest Troll - - 0.02% 0.02% - 0.04%
SEAK Southeast Troll - - 0.03% - - 0.03%
SEAK Northwest Troll - 0.02% 0.07% 0.01% - 0.10%
SEAK Northeast Troll - - 0.02% - - 0.02%
Southeast Alaska Net - - 0.03% - - 0.03%

Total averaged 69% during 1986-1997 and then reductions in harvest starting in 1998 to protect Coho Salmon resulted in a period of low (14.7% average since it has been measured starting in 2004) Table 4.7.

Figure 4.16: Average exploitation rates by fishing area of Interior Fraser River Coho Salmon. The stacked bars represent the rates estimated by gear type during the FRAM base period, catch years 1986–1992.
Figure 4.17: Average exploitation rates by fishing area of Interior Fraser River Coho Salmon, catch years 1998-2013 by gear type.
Figure 4.18: Post-season estimates of fishery mortality for the Interior Fraser by mark-selective (MSF) and non-selective (NS) fisheries over catch years 1998 through 2021. These estimates are combined US and Canadian harvest impacts.

Over the period of record (1985-2018), the 3-year geometric mean escapement for Interior Fraser Coho Salmon peaked in the mid-1980s at over 70,000 fish, and declined to a running average of less than 18,000 individuals in the late 1990s and for the 2006 to 2008 period (Figure 4.12). Similar trends are observed in total abundance (pre-fishery recruitment), which declined from over 200,000 in the late 1970s and late 1980s to less than 30,000 in between 1990-2020. Survival of hatchery releases has also declined from a maximum of 7.2% to less than 1% in return year 2003 and an average of 1.0% between brood years 2003-2020 (Figure 4.13).

Observed escapement for each of the five Coho Salmon populations show similar trends as those in the aggregate total (Figure 4.12). The populations differ in abundance; however, the North Thompson population has generally been the largest, and the Upper Fraser and Lower Thompson populations are typically much smaller. It should be noted that the escapement estimates to the upper Middle Fraser have low or un-estimated precision.

Table 4.7: Historical summary of annual total abundance (January age-3 without natural mortality), adult escapement, and (ER) of the Interior Fraser Management Unit; since 2004.
catch_year abundance escapement
ER
Canada SUS
2004 46,451 41,458 1.2% 9.2%
2005 15,999 14,476 3.1% 6.3%
2006 8,800 7,880 2.4% 7.9%
2007 66,052 58,214 3.5% 8.1%
2008 18,015 16,306 2.6% 6.7%
2009 25,063 21,543 3.0% 10.9%
2010 43,318 38,562 4.0% 6.8%
2011 30,292 25,947 6.8% 7.4%
2012 65,014 55,562 5.4% 9.1%
2013 71,415 56,681 8.4% 12.0%
2014 26,551 17,176 26.5% 8.5%
2015 15,021 11,409 14.9% 9.0%
2016 64,867 58,898 4.8% 4.3%
2017 26,777 24,174 4.8% 4.7%
2018 38,098 32,286 7.7% 7.4%
2019 54,777 43,826 6.6% 13.3%
2020 82,191 71,141 4.5% 8.8%
2021 87,210 78,920 4.5% 4.8%
2022 80,129 70,201 5.8% 6.4%
Figure 4.19: Total exploitation rate (A) and escapement (B) of Interior Fraser MU by country, catch years 1986 through 2022. Dashed line indicates escapement goal for the Interior Fraser MU (Need esc goal for ifr 30,000 individuals).
Historical Overview of Status of Management Unit

Since catch year 2004, the pre- and post-season status of the has been Low. Since the development of reference points that include survival, the has persisted at a “low” status.

Figure 4.20: Interior Fraser post-season estimates of ocean age-3 abundances, escapement, and harvest for catch years 2004 through 2021. The vertical dotted lines highlight catch year 2010)
Figure 4.21: Interior Fraser pre- and post-season abundance status for catch years 2004 through 2021
Table 4.8: Preseason and post-season abundance estimates for Interior Fraser from 2004 onwards.
catch_year abund_preseason abund_postseason
2004 34,508.5 46,450.6
2005 30,807.9 15,999.3
2006 18,298.1 8,799.6
2007 14,225.2 66,052.4
2008 14,031.5 18,015.3
2009 15,699.6 25,062.9
2010 22,026.1 43,317.6
2011 22,859.6 30,292.0
2012 27,971.1 65,014.4
2013 38,523.7 71,415.2
2014 54,600.7 26,551.0
2015 46,255.5 15,020.5
2016 14,272.8 64,866.9
2017 28,122.6 26,777.0
2018 32,132.3 38,098.3
2019 40,720.5 54,776.9
2020 39,424.5 82,190.8
2021 44,097.7 87,209.8
2022 84,020.3 80,129.1
2023 87,527.6 NA
2024 86,219.9 NA
Factors Affecting Management Unit Status

Survival and Productivity

Several reports have highlighted a change in Coho Salmon survival and productivity. Irvine et al. (1999a) first documented trends in the rate of population growth for the North and South Thompson populations of Coho Salmon for the brood years between 1975 and 1997. Decker et al. (2014) subsequently noted two distinct periods in the stock-recruitment relationship for (Figure 4.22) that are likely driven by a change in smolt-to-adult survival. Productivity was considerably higher for return years 1987- 1993 (brood years 1984-1990) than for return years 1994-2018 (brood years 1991-2015). This change corresponds approximately to a 1989-1990 change in marine conditions ((Beamish 1993), (Irvine and Fukuwaka 2011)). A shift is evident in annual smolt-to-adult survival estimates for -indicator stocks, with survival for the past 15+ years being much lower than before the shift in productivity (Figure 4.13). Smolt-to-adult survival averaged about 4.4% from brood years 1984-1990 (including 2 infilled years), then dropped to <1% in brood year 1992. Smolt-to-adult survival appeared to increase after brood year 1992 but then decreased to <0.1% in brood year 2003. Since the last peak in smolt-to-adult survival around brood years 1997-1999, smolt-to-adult survival has averaged 1.0%.

Figure 4.22: Productivity (natural log transformed) versus total escapement abundance of Interior Fraser River Coho Salmon. Brood years 1984-1990 are open circles, which coincide with high survival and productivity, and 1991- 2013 are filled circles, which coincide with low survival and productivity. The black lines represent the relation between productivity and total escapement; r2 = 0.93 and 0.19 for the open circles and filled circles, respectively, with p < 0.05 for each model. The two red points are influential points from brood years 2002 and 2012. The red line is the slope with the influential points included. *Original figure from Arbeider (2020), which is an updated figure from Decker et al. (2014). The data are not age stratified in this relationship.

Climate Change

Various studies have documented the role of climate change in altering the marine ecosystem and related this to shifts in marine survival for Coho and other Pacific salmon (e.g., Beamish (1993), Beamish and Thomson (1999); Beamish and King (2000); Coronado and Hilborn (1998); Irvine and Fukuwaka (2011)). Climate change is also expected to have significant impacts on freshwater habitat for Coho Salmon as well. For example, Porter and Nelitz (2009) modelled the effects of various climate change scenarios on stream temperatures and hydrology in a number of watersheds in the Cariboo-Chilcotin region of the Interior Fraser River watershed, and found that, under worst-case scenarios, increased air temperatures and precipitation were likely to result in contractions in the current range of suitable habitat for Coho Salmon during the next 80 years in most watersheds, but possible expansions in others. Other drainages in the interior Fraser River such as the Lower and South Thompson rivers, have considerably warmer climates than the Cariboo-Chilcotin, and would be expected to experience more severe impacts from warming temperatures. Morrison et al. (2002) observed that historic peak flows are occurring earlier and summer water temperatures are increasing in the Fraser River’s mainstem. They projected that by 2070-2099, there would be an overall increase in flow volume (+5%) but a decrease in peak flow (-18%) that would occur an average of 24 days earlier than the average in 2002. For the same projection period, summer water temperatures were predicted to increase an average of 1.9 °C, which is enough to increase adult mortality in freshwater and pre-spawn mortality on the spawning grounds. Morrison et al. (2002) specifically noted that salmon migrating up the Thompson River (i.e. Lower Thompson, South Thompson, and North Thompson Rivers) would encounter temperatures above their thermal tolerance in the future under the assumption that they do not have the adaptive capacity to handle consistently higher temperatures, which is likely. While Healey (2011) reviewed the potential negative effects of global warming at each stage in the life cycle of Fraser River Sockeye salmon; the majority of these effects are applicable to Interior Fraser Coho Salmon as well.

For IFR Coho Salmon, the threat of future climate change represents a severe threat because: 1) marine survival of salmon is correlated with climate-induced regime shifts and inter-annual variability in sea surface temperatures and ocean currents, 2) warmer temperatures have the potential to substantially reduce usable habitat, carrying capacity and productivity in both the freshwater and marine environments, and 3) anthropogenic-induced climate change will not be reversible in a reasonable time frame. There is continued debate as to how Pacific salmon will respond to future climate change, but for Coho Salmon at least, the weight of scientific evidence and scientific opinion suggests that the overall effect will be strongly negative (e.g., Bradford (1998); Beamish and Thomson (1999); Lackey (2001); Hartman et al. (2000); Healey (2011); Irvine and Fukuwaka (2011)).

Freshwater and Estuary Habitat and Land Use

Freshwater habitat status in this is reviewed in Fisheries and Oceans Canada (1998a), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (1998b), and Harding et al. (1994). A comprehensive summary of the habitat within the is presented in the IFRCT Comprehensive Report. Specific freshwater habitat concerns, by watershed, have been collated in a series of Fraser River Action Plan (FRAP) reports (e.g., Harding et al. (1994), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (1998a), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (1998b); and Decker and Irvine (2014)).

Coho Salmon habitat in the Interior Fraser watershed has been impacted in many ways. Many valley bottoms were logged, and have subsequently been used for agriculture (mainly livestock, dairy, and animal feed crops) for at least the last 50 years (Burt and Wallis 1997). In some cases, riparian vegetation has been removed, livestock have destabilized stream banks, and off-channel habitats and wetlands have been destroyed or isolated by dike construction. In most non-agricultural areas the old-growth timber on the valley floors has been removed, and logging is now occurring in the headwaters of many drainages. Salvage logging in forests that have been impacted by pine beetle and forest fires has also increased the rate of logging in some areas. Forest fires are also becoming more frequent as a result of climate change, historic forestry practices, pine beetle infestation, and incidences of human initiated fires ((Mote et al. 2003), Wang et al. 2015). In addition, much of the southern and western part of the Thompson River watershed is semiarid and high rates of water withdrawal in summer for irrigation cause low flows and high water temperatures ((Rood and Hamilton 1995), Walthers and Nener 2000; (Rosenau and Angelo 2003)).

In many watersheds, the alteration of natural riparian ecosystems for agriculture, industrial forestry, by pine beetle and for other uses has largely occurred, though the impact of these changes has not necessarily stabilized as the influence of these alterations on the resiliency of habitats to threats such as PDO fluctuations or climate change is unknown. Bradford and Irvine (2000) related the rate at which the abundance of Coho Salmon returning to individual interior Fraser River spawning streams declined to the extent of human activity in the corresponding watershed during 1988-1998. They showed that rates of decline were correlated with agricultural land use, road density, and a qualitative index of stream habitat status.

The extent of use of the lower Fraser River and its estuary by Interior Fraser Coho Salmon is poorly understood. However, DNA analysis of a sample of 1800 juvenile Coho Salmon collected during the winter from side-channel and off-channel habitat in the lower Fraser River near Aggasiz in 2006-2007 indicated that 35% were of Interior Fraser origin (, Fraser River Chinook and Coho Salmon Stock Assessment Division, unpublished data). An acoustic tagging experiment suggests that Interior Fraser Coho Salmon experience relatively high mortality during their migration through the Lower Fraser River and estuary (Chittenden et al. 2010). Habitats within the lower Fraser River have been greatly impacted. Most of the streams in the lower Fraser River valley are classified as threatened or endangered due to draining of wetlands for agriculture and residential development, dyke construction for flood control, riparian zone degradation, and pollution ((Fraser River Action Plan (FRAP) 1998), (Langer et al. 2000), (Brown 2002), (Rosenau and Angelo 2003)). As of 1988, an estimated 70% of wetland habitats had been isolated from the lower Fraser River floodplain by dyke systems (Birtwell et al. 1988).

4.2.2 Lower Fraser

This description was prepared by Canadian members of the Coho Technical Committee.

4.2.2.1 Biological and Geographic Description

The Fraser River is the largest watershed in the province and supports a wide diversity and great abundance of salmon stocks. The Lower Fraser (LWFR) Coho Salmon includes conservation units (CUs) below Hells Gate, at the Fraser River upstream limit of the . During the period of glaciation, as the ice retreated, the Fraser canyon at Hells Gate became blocked with ice, restricting the dispersal of many fish species. Consequently, Coho Salmon found in the lower Fraser River watershed, are known to have been colonized along the coast via the sea (Decker and Irvine 2014). Furthermore, in 1945 a landslide at Hells Gate (induced by railway construction in 1913) created a barrier to upstream salmon migration. Despite the construction of a fishway, Hells Gate remains a velocity barrier for many salmon species. For these reasons, Coho Salmon migrating upstream of Hells Gate are biologically and evolutionarily distinct from Coho Salmon and are referred to as Coho Salmon. Coho Salmon originate from areas considerably farther upstream of Hells Gate, many from the Thompson River system. In turn, they show morphological differences and swimming performance that are likely associated with their longer migrations (Taylor and McPhail 1985). The Coho Salmon includes North Thompson, South Thompson, Lower Thompson, Fraser Canyon, and Middle Fraser CUs. Coho Salmon are more typical of other nearby coastal populations in terms of morphology, genetic marker similarity, and life history (Arbeider 2020). Within the , there are four CUs as designated under the Wild Salmon Policy (WSP); Lillooet, Lower Fraser A (further upstream, incorporates Chilliwack watershed), Lower Fraser B (nearer the mouth of the Fraser River), and Boundary Bay. The Boundary Bay is not directly connected to the Fraser River watershed and is more genetically related to the Puget Sound populations (in the U.S.).

Figure 4.23: Lower Fraser Coho Salmon Management Unit.

The is comprised of the Fraser River watershed including the Lillooet River and the delta downstream of Hell’s Gate encompassing Boundary Bay. This area roughly matches both marine and freshwater Canadian Fisheries Management Area 29; it does not include sub-areas 29-1 and 29-5, which borders the shoreline of the Sunshine Coast and the Gulf Islands. This area is also described as Region 2 in the British Columbia Regional Freshwater Fishing Guide. Not all rivers and streams found in these areas are contained within the ; only systems derived from the Fraser River or Boundary Bay are included. The includes a significant marine portion of the southern Strait of Georgia extending north to Reception Point on the Sunshine Coast, east to the Southern Gulf Islands, and south to the international border.

The Fraser is the longest river in British Columbia, originating at Fraser Pass and flowing for 1,375 into the Strait of Georgia at the city of Vancouver. The Fraser River drains a 220,000 km² area with an annual discharge at its mouth of 112 km3 (3550 m3/s). The ’s upper boundary begins at Hell’s Gate, where the entire volume of the river is forced through a narrow canyon only 35 meters wide. Downstream at Yale, the canyon opens, emerging almost at sea level with the river widening until Hope, where the river then turns west and southwest into the lowland Fraser Valley. The Fraser turns southwest again just east of New Westminster, where it splits into the North Arm and the South Arm. It then forms a delta, with several industrialized and heavily populated islands, where it empties into the Strait of Georgia between the mainland and Vancouver Island. At the mouth of the Fraser, mixing of the fresh river water and denser saline ocean water produces stratified flow, developing a well-defined “salt-wedge” during flood tides. The salt wedge is generally restricted to the reach downstream of Deas Island for most times of the year (Ward, 1976). The position of the salt wedge shifts further downstream with increasing freshwater discharges.

Four main tributaries enter the Fraser River between Hope and Mission. In order of basin size, these are Harrison River (7,870 km2), Chilliwack River (1,230 km2), Chehalis River (383 km2), and Silverhope Creek (350 km2). The Lillooet River originates from the Lillooet Glacier meltwater that flows south past the town of Pemberton into the top of Harrison Lake. Owing to this, the Harrison peak flows tend to be snowmelt generated and typically occur a few days after the Fraser peak flow. The Chilliwack River and Silverhope Creek maximum annual discharges may occur in either summer or fall, whereas Chehalis River peak flood events occur in the fall and winter. Four additional large tributary systems are located downstream of Mission: Stave River, Pitt River, Alouette River, and Coquitlam River. The Stave River and Pitt River are the larger basins with drainage areas of 1,140 km2 and 795 km2. The Coquitlam and Alouette Rivers each drain areas of 237 km2 and 234 km2. The Stave, Alouette, and Coquitlam Rivers are regulated by BC Hydro while the Pitt River is unregulated.

While the vast majority of the river’s drainage basin lies within British Columbia, a small portion in the drainage basin lies across the international border in Washington, namely the upper reaches of the Chilliwack and Sumas Rivers and parts of the Boundary Bay . The Boundary Bay watershed is not a tributary of the Fraser River and is located south of the Fraser River Delta, approximately 19 km outside the City of Vancouver. The rectangular-shaped basin is 15 km long and 4 km wide and straddles the US Canadian border facing onto the southern portion of the Strait of Georgia. Boundary Bay is divided into two extensions: Mud Bay to the northeast, and Semiahmoo Bay to the southeast that crosses the border into the United States. The five main river inflows include; Nicomekl (~34 km long), Serpentine (~35 km long), Little Campbell River (~30 km long), California Creek, and Dakota Creek (Swain and Holms 1988).

Downstream from Hope, the river and adjoining floodplains widen considerably in the area considered the head of the Fraser Delta. The river passes through fertile agricultural lands and populous city centers on its way through the valley to the mouth at Georgia Strait. The Fraser Valley has a variety of land uses, ranging from the urban and industrial centers through golf courses and parks to dairy farms and berry fields.

Increasing rapid urban and suburban growth has taken place in the Vancouver area and communities in the Fraser Valley. The main population center in this region is Metro Vancouver. Other centers include Chilliwack, Abbotsford, Surrey, and Mission. Surrey has become the lower Mainland’s second-largest city with significant population growth between 2010-2020. It is anticipated that Surrey’s population will grow by more than 50% by 2051 (City of Surrey 2021). With anticipated continued population growth, the cumulative impact of human activities will put increasing pressure on watershed catchments, sediment stability, and water resources (Arbeider 2020).

Agriculture in the Fraser Valley is well established. Although it makes up only a small percentage of the province’s total land area the Fraser Valley brings in over half of British Columbia’s annual agricultural revenue. Typically, farmland activities are focussed along riparian areas causing impacts to stream habitat. Sumas Lake is one specific example of Coho Salmon habitat converted for agricultural purposes. In the 1920’s Sumas Lake was drained and dyked to allow for increased land availability and flood control. The shallow lake was approximately 40 km2 in size. Roughly 3,600 ha of open water and 8,000 ha of marsh habitat and sloughs were lost during the draining of the lake (Brown 2002). Following the drainage of Sumas Lake, the intensity of agricultural operations increased considerably, specifically for livestock operations (BC Min. of Water, Land, and Air Protection. 2004). More generally, most of the streams in the lower Fraser have been altered due to flood control and agricultural practices (Finn et al. 2021).

Additionally, two pipelines run through the lower Fraser Valley: the Trans Mountain pipeline that transports crude and refined oil products, and the Westcoast Transmission System Pipeline that transports natural gas.

4.2.2.2 Management Framework

Objectives

Under the ABM regime, (defined as total fishing mortality divided by total fishing mortality plus escapement) for each Party’s fisheries are to be constrained for each , depending on status determinations provided by each Party. Under the ABM plan, the Parties are required to establish escapement goals or that achieve Maximum Sustainable Harvest, for each and status category (low, moderate, and abundant). Until such time as the Parties provide the targets, the plan identified ceilings for the following status categories (for details see http://www.psc.org/publications_psctreaty.htm). The low category is defined as marine survival less than 3%, moderate 3-6% and abundant as survival greater than 6% Table 4.9.

Table 4.9: Current Management Reference Point (circa 2018)
Status Survival and Abundance Targets Total Exploitation Rate
Low <3 % survival or abundance target Up to 20%
Moderate 3-6 % survival and moderate abundance target 21% – 40%
Abundant >6 % survival and abundant abundance target 41% – 65%

Currently, there are no caps in place for the . Fisheries management measures implemented to protect Coho Salmon are assumed to protect the Coho Salmon due to overlap in run timing. In addition, similar marine survival rate patterns between the two provide the support that status-based caps for Coho Salmon will achieve conservation requirements for Coho Salmon in most years (Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2018). The Coho Salmon is classified as ‘low’ status under the and is currently managed internationally to an overall of 20% (10% for Canada and 10% for the U.S.). Canadian domestic management has further reduced the objective for Coho Salmon to between 3 and 5% annually. The reduction is accomplished through significant restrictions on the retention of naturally produced (adipose fin present) Coho Salmon in fisheries where Coho Salmon are present, as well as broad-scale closures to fisheries targeting Coho Salmon. A moving window closure is implemented annually in the mainstem of the Fraser from September through October to avoid bycatch of Coho Salmon (Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2020). These restrictions have been in place since 1998, though the 3-5% management objective has been in place since 2015. In years prior to 2015, the management objective was occasionally relaxed to facilitate Sockeye targeted fisheries that catch Coho Salmon as bycatch (such as in 2014). Coho Salmon are known to have a slightly later run timing than Coho Salmon, therefore late-season fisheries occurring after the window closure may still impact the . In the absence of caps for this , attention should be taken to avoid over-harvesting Coho Salmon in late fall fisheries (Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2018).

At this time, there are no Reference Points for the LWFR . Recent changes to the Canadian Fisheries Act (Bill C-38) have mandated the establishment of limit reference points for all major Canadian fish stocks. It is anticipated to take several years for all fish stocks to be evaluated. The LWFR has not been prioritized for the development reference points as of this writing.

Under the Wild Salmon Policy (WSP), the Department is mandated to manage wild Pacific salmon to allow for the restoration and maintenance of healthy and diverse salmon populations. Under the WSP, all decisions and activities are guided by three objectives; safeguard genetic diversity, maintain habitat and ecosystem integrity, and manage fisheries for sustainable benefits. Wild LWFR Coho Salmon will be and are currently managed in a way and at a rate that does not lead to a long-term decline in abundance. Canada’s adoption of the WSP allows for sustainable harvest to maintain the ability for future generations to sustain their needs (Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2005).

Stock Assessment
Indicator Stocks

Each year are applied to a portion of the out-migrating juvenile Coho Salmon, with tag recovery occurring when returning adult fish are caught. Annual analysis uses recoveries from indicator stocks to represent the impacts to the . Results are then used to define fishery management objectives such as . Very few indicator programs are implemented to assess salmon escapement due to high project costs (Grant et al. 2007). Up until 2005, the Salmon River located in Fort Langley BC and the Upper Pitt River located upstream of Pitt Lake in the lower mainland were two wild indicator stocks for the . However, escapement trends in other systems revealed poor correlation between the two indicator stocks and other assessed streams. The Salmon River and the Upper Pitt River are no longer wild indicator stocks (Grant 2007). It is unclear why differing trends were observed between the Salmon and Pitt indicator stocks and other streams. Inch Creek is currently the sole hatchery indicator stock for the and is located approximately 10 kilometers east of Mission BC. Between 2000-2017 brood years, Inch Creek averaged 105,500 released Coho Salmon per year (Table 4.10). 100% of the fish released with from this hatchery are adipose fin-clipped. Historically (1983-2000), the hatchery produced an average of 45,000 coded-wired-tagged fish. In 2014, the target was increased to 140,000-150,000 juveniles.

Table 4.10: Total hatchery releases and coded wire tag (CWT) releases at Inch Creek hatchery from brood years 1986-2016 with percent of releases with a CWT.
Brood Year All Releases Coded Wire Tag Releases Percentage of Releases with CWT
1986 194814 19504 0.100
1987 82129 27458 0.334
1988 190725 38019 0.199
1989 153120 29367 0.192
1990 183104 31629 0.173
1991 229647 21172 0.092
1992 242949 20303 0.084
1993 257049 21540 0.084
1994 231092 21174 0.092
1995 477089 77332 0.162
1996 209702 85487 0.408
1997 363436 80506 0.222
1998 495959 80299 0.162
1999 189092 80001 0.423
2000 454642 80155 0.176
2001 206926 79328 0.383
2002 144600 79304 0.548
2003 144223 79972 0.555
2004 140399 100058 0.713
2005 233639 99355 0.425
2006 148902 100326 0.674
2007 139062 100619 0.724
2008 162607 98149 0.604
2009 191577 95310 0.498
2010 156552 98651 0.630
2011 156141 100028 0.641
2012 162369 100141 0.617
2013 161348 149943 0.929
2014 147951 140470 0.949
2015 149702 147806 0.987
2016 151923 145310 0.956
Figure 4.24: Number of wild fish caught, tagged, and released by clip status, within the Lower Fraser MU over brood years 1983 through 2020.
Figure 4.25: Total number of coded-wire-tagged hatchery Coho Salmon released, by clip status, within the Lower Fraser MU for brood years 1983 through 2020.
Forecast Methods

Due to data deficiencies, pre-season system-wide forecasts are not calculated for the Coho Salmon . However, under Annex four of the {Commission (2019)], Canada and the United States have agreed to estimate fishery impacts on the Southern Coho Salmon using the Fisheries Regulation Assessment Model (FRAM). FRAM is a discrete, time-step, age-structured, deterministic, model that is used to predict escapement and ER. FRAM is founded in a base period of stock-specific ocean distributions from 1986 to 1992 constructed from recoveries from 198 fisheries. The model estimates escapement and ER for the upcoming year using past Coho Salmon encounters scaled to represent present stock abundances and catch (documentation on FRAM can be found here: https://framverse.github.io/fram_doc/). For the LWFR , the Inch Creek indicator stock survival and run size is forecasted and incorporated into the FRAM model for pre-and post-season analysis on stock status. Survival is calculated by: ToDo: need to fix this Survival=(100 (C+E+M))/S Where percent survival equals catch (C) plus escapement (E) plus natural mortality (M) (which is assumed as negligible) divided by the abundance of brood year smolts (S) multiplied by 100%. The calculated survival rates are used as indicators of smolt releases and the resulting return of three-year-old adults including fisheries removals.

It has been shown that climatic indicators are correlated to biological processes including marine survival of salmon (DFO unpublished 2020b). Models use data on climatic trends to better inform future marine survival run size. Climate indicators such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are included (DFO unpublished 2020b). Climatic models utilize a regression of the logit transformed marine survivals (Y) against the logit transformed climate index (X1) and the “odd year” status (X2). Each model follows this general equation: Yt+1=Xt+1 b1+X2t+1 b2+a

Where the regression coefficients (b) are multiplied by the climate index value for the forecast year Xt+1 and “odd year” status for the forecast year X2t+1 summed together with the regression intercept (a). The best-preforming model for each is determined through retrospective analysis and a forecast is produced yearly.

Marine Survival

Marine survival rates of Coho Salmon from the Inch Creek Hatchery indicator stocks are displayed in (Figure 4.26). Marked Coho Salmon (adipose-fin-clipped) have been released with from Inch Creek since 1983 to support fisheries monitoring and creation of a survival index. Although all releases can be used for calculating exploitation, some include experimental release sizes or timings that may affect survival. It has been proven that there is strong size-selective mortality in the early marine period ((Beamish and Mahnken 2001); (Beamish et al. 2004), etc); therefore, releases need to be fairly uniform to support a long-term survival index. The survival of the Inch Creek index is thus calculated from specific tag codes releases that do not fall out of a normal range of size at release. The index calculation is simply the sum of adult (age 3+) escapement and catch of all tag codes from a given brood year divided by the total release of that given brood year.

For the hatchery indicator stocks, the marine survival rate showed a directed downward trend during the 1990s. Historic data from 1985-1999 shows, the marine survival rates of Salmon, Inch, and Chilliwack averaged 9.5%, 7.0%, and 7.4%, respectively. More recently, the Inch Creek Hatchery has had an average survival rate of 2.7% between brood years 2000-2017 (Figure 4.26). Fish returning in 2020 from the 2017 brood year saw an unexpectedly large increase in percent survival. Analysis of the increase in survival is currently underway.

Figure 4.26: Inch Creek Coho Salmon indicator stock smolt to adult survival estimates in the LWFR Coho Salmon Management Unit, 1986 to 2017 brood years.

Run Timing

Coho Salmon are known to enter the lower Fraser River from late August to December. Coho Salmon have evolved a slightly later run timing compared to the earlier Coho Salmon (Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2019). Peak timing has not been calculated for the entire . As part of the larger LWFR Coho Salmon Escapement Assessment project (described in section 4), in-river test fishery data from 1985-2018 has been analyzed to create a catch-by-date timeline to forecast peak run timing (Arbeider et al. 2020). The analysis indicated the majority of peak run timing at the test fisheries in these years occurred between October 1 to October 15.

Lower Fraser - Grant et al. (2007) is the most recent reference for defining run timing for Coho Salmon in the lower Fraser. The document includes peak timing estimates for 21 streams for the years 1999-2005. There are no updated run timing estimates for the CUs.

Lillooet - The exact run timing of Lillooet Coho Salmon has yet to be defined. However, efforts have been made to remedy this through the deployment of an ARIS to estimate wild escapement. The ARIS was installed to estimate escapement during six weeks between October 18 to November 29, 2019. Daily counts peaked early and generally decreased for the remainder of the sampling period. Daily counts indicated the project did not capture the early migration and true peak, assuming the run-timing curve approximates a normal distribution (Johnson et al. 2020). Efforts to better define Lillooet run timing are underway through the Coho Escapement Assessment project (Arbeider et al. 2020).

Boundary Bay - Historical assessments of the Boundary Bay were conducted in 1988 by Swain and Holms on three systems: Little Campbell River, Serpentine River, and the Nicomekl River. The assessments indicated Little Campbell River and Serpentine Coho Salmon arrive to the systems in October, with peak counts occurring in mid-November and the last spawner observed in late November to late December. Nicomekl Coho Salmon arrive to the system in September, peaking in late November, with the last spawner observed at the end of December (Swain and Holms 1988). Unfortunately, updated run timings have not been conducted as of 2021.

Smolt Production

Without direct estimates of juvenile productivity, appropriate escapement goals are difficult to define for Coho Salmon. Habitat capacity models provide alternative methods to determining smolt production capacities and potential escapement goals for a specific . Nobel et al. 2015 constructed a model that predicts the average smolts per spawner based on habitat availability. Wild smolt production from lower Fraser monitored streams is used to develop a relationship between smolt production and stream length. This relationship is then applied to estimate stream-specific smolt yields and required spawners for identified Coho-producing steams. In the entire , 136 streams are documented as supporting wild Coho Salmon production (Noble et al. 2015). Within the , the average estimated smolt production and the abundance of spawners required to produce the average smolts are 3,003,538 and 92,037, respectively. Overall, the lower Fraser has a calculated available habitat of 2,572 km. Data deficiencies continue to prevent robust escapement goals and management objectives (such as Smsy or Sgen benchmarks) to be calculated for the LFR . However, results suggest appropriate escapement goals should be in the range of 39,000 spawners for the Lower Fraser CUs, 16,000 for Boundary Bay, and 24,000 for Lillooet (Noble et al. 2015).

Escapement Monitoring

Grant et al. (2007) is the most recent reference for escapement monitoring for Coho Salmon in the lower Fraser. Inconsistencies in budgets and Departmental staffing have limited data analysis on this . Estimates of Coho Salmon escapement have not been completed for the system and remains a significant data gap. Methods to monitor escapement vary depending on and by stream.

Lower Fraser

In the past, two mark re-capture programs were implemented in the lower Fraser. The Upper Pitt River program ran from 1993 to 2001 with a yearly escapement average estimate of just over 10,000 fish for the nine years. The Salmon River program ran from 1997 to 2008. Currently, there are no mark re-capture projects aimed at assessing Coho Salmon in the lower Fraser. Alternatively, stream walks have been conducted throughout the Lower Mainland in the following streams:

  • Barnes
  • Blaney
  • Chilqua
  • Coghlan
  • Hicks
  • Hopedale
  • Kanaka
  • Kawakawa
  • McIntyre
  • North Alouette
  • Nathan
  • Norrish
  • Post
  • Salmon
  • Siddle
  • Silverdale
  • Squawkum
  • Street
  • Whonnock
  • Widgeon
  • Worth

The objective of the stream walks is to estimate daily abundance throughout the entire run. Historical information on stream run timing is used to determine survey start and end dates. The two technicians use counters to tally live and dead counts of observed Coho Salmon in each stream. Carcasses may be sampled for length, sex, percent spawn, adipose presence/absence, detection, and DNA analysis (Grant et al. 2007). The number of streams surveyed changes yearly based on the availability of staff and funding. Unfortunately, data on recent escapement trends is currently unavailable and remains a major data gap.

Lillooet

Stream surveys are annually completed in the Lillooet on major tributaries. Due to inconsistencies in funds, there is currently no way of estimating system-wide Lillooet escapements (Johnson et al. 2019). Recently, efforts have been made to remedy this through the deployment of a sonar system in the Lillooet River run by the Lil’wat Nation and LGL Ltd. The project was prepared for the and was undertaken to estimate wild Coho Salmon escapement through the use of an ARIS system (Johnson et al. 2019). Over the six weeks of sampling from 18 October to 30 November 2019, 2,124 Coho Salmon were enumerated. From the results of the ARIS sampling, it was determined the project did not fully capture the peak of the run. As part of the larger Coho Escapement Assessment project (described in section 4), the Lillooet sonar program will be expanded to cover the entire length of the run to allow total escapement to be estimated (Arbeider et al. 2020).

Boundary Bay

The Boundary Bay does not currently have stock assessment programs dedicated to assessing escapement.

Fishery Monitoring

Under the , is required to annually monitor fishery impacts to all Coho to determine retained catch, recovery rates, and incidental mortalities. Defining -specific fishery impacts allows Resource Managers to accurately evaluate relative to prescribed limits.

Due to management measures implemented to protect Coho Salmon, retention of all Coho Salmon is limited in all fisheries. Generally, Coho Salmon impacts are monitored through programs carried out in non-target fisheries where bycatch is possible. However, some fisheries have been permitted to retain hatchery marked Coho Salmon. Nations with access to terminal hatchery systems may have the opportunity to retain adipose fin-clipped (AFC) Coho Salmon, such as fish bound for the Inch Creek, the Chilliwack, or the Chehalis hatcheries. Additionally, mark-selective recreational fisheries can be authorized in some areas (Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2020). All fisheries mentioned above are monitored according to the Strategic Framework for Fishery Monitoring and Catch Reporting in Pacific Fisheries (Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2012).

Catch monitoring programs vary depending on the characteristics of the fishery and available resources. Data is collected through either fisher-dependent or fisher-independent methods. Fisher-dependant estimates are collected through interviews either orally or in writing, while fisher-independent estimates are based on catch observed or verified by fishery monitors. Most fisheries are monitored using a combination of fisher-dependant and fisher-independent methods.

Food, Social, and Ceremonial (FSC) and Economic Opportunity (EO) Fisheries Nations fishing for needs are subject to different types of monitoring depending on the type of net and the location of the fishing area. Generally, all catch rate data is based on interviews with fishers. In some cases, the retained catch is counted by fishery monitors, either onboard or observed on the water. Nations fishing in an opening are required to land their catch at landing sites where a stationed monitor counts catch and collects release and effort data. Frequent vessel patrols and overflights are conducted in some areas to calculate instantaneous effort counts in both and gillnet fisheries. Patrols in selective fisheries such as beach seines and shallow seines are used to ensure bycatch is recorded correctly.

Commercial Fisheries

Commercial catch is reported via phone-in log reports. Data is also verified through daily patrols where on the water monitors validate kept and release numbers. Commercial vessels are mandated to have an onboard revival tank to lower impacts to bycatch species such as wild Coho Salmon. Some commercial fleets are required to have onboard at-sea-observers to assess Coho Salmon encounter rates and fish conditions. Vessel patrols and overflights estimate boat counts to calculate instantaneous effort.

Recreational Fisheries

Creel surveys are the primary tool used to estimate catch in recreational fisheries in both the marine and freshwater areas. Creel surveyors interview fishers to collect catch and effort data to define catch rates. In 2014 developed a survey used to reach areas in the marine waters where creel monitors are not available, called the internet-based recreational fishery (iREC). The iREC platform uses a monthly online survey to collect detailed recreational fishing catch and effort information from randomly selected tidal waters license holders. In some areas, vessel patrols and overflights are deployed to estimate boat counts to calculate instantaneous effort.

Enhancement

–> These paragraphs don’t match up entirely (update paragraph #2 and delete first one): The following hatcheries produce salmon to support and objectives and are located within the lower Fraser River watershed: 1) Chehalis River Hatchery, located on a tributary of the Harrison River, which is a major tributary of the lower Fraser River; 2) Chilliwack River Hatchery, located on a major tributary of the lower Fraser River; and 3) Inch Creek Hatchery, located on a tributary of a large slough connected to the lower Fraser River. The Inch Creek Hatchery rears Coho Salmon for the indicator stock for the Coho Salmon . Numerous community hatcheries support Indigenous and community activities through the Community Economic Development and Public Involvement Program.

The following federal hatcheries are located within the lower Fraser watershed: 1) Chehalis Hatchery located on the Chehalis River, 2.8 km upstream of the confluence of Harrison River; 2) Chilliwack Hatchery located on the Chilliwack River approximately 40 km upstream of the confluence of the Fraser River; and 3) Inch Creek Hatchery located on Norrish Creek 1.6 km upstream of the confluence of Nicomen/Dewdney Slough. Several additional community hatcheries and school programs operate within the and release Coho Salmon. Coho Salmon releases from the entire during the 1980 to 2016 brood years are displayed in (Figure 4.27). The average number of smolts released during this period was approximately 2.1 million per year. The average number of fry released was approximately 183,000 per year. The majority of the smolts are released from the Inch, Chilliwack, and Chehalis federal hatcheries (averaging approximately 180,000, 1.2 million, and 774,000, respectively). The Alouette and Kanaka hatcheries also release a significant number of Coho Salmon (approximately 42,000 each).

Figure 4.27: Total hatchery releases for the entire from brood years 1980-2016 by release stage (fry and smolts) with percent mass marked.

Several smaller-scale community hatcheries and school projects release fry at various sites in the lower Fraser. These releases account for a small percentage of the total number of Coho Salmon in the . Most school community groups release Coho Salmon as fry rather than smolts. All projects are administered through the Salmonid Enhancement Program (SEP) within the Department. SEP also oversees numerous habitat restoration projects, such as the construction of artificial side-channel habitats for rearing and spawning.

Mass marking of Canadian hatchery Coho Salmon began in 1995. In the , Coho Salmon have been mass-marked at the Chehalis, Chilliwack, and Inch hatcheries. For the 1995 brood year, the mark was a left ventral clip. All brood year releases after 1995 have been adipose clipped. As of the 2000 brood year, 98.5% of hatchery fish from the three hatcheries mentioned above are adipose fin clipped. All Coho Salmon released with a are also fin clipped. Since 1998, there has been mandatory non-retention of wild Coho Salmon for all areas of British Columbia except selected terminal areas on hatchery stocks.

Figure 4.28: Hatchery production of Coho Salmon released within the Lower Fraser , brood years 1983 through 2020.

4.2.2.3 Management Performance

Forecast Evaluation
Figure 4.29: Comparison of preseason abundance predictions with the post-season estimates for the Lower Fraser MU.
Fishery Mortality and Escapement

The base period for the FRAM defines the temporal and spatial distributions of salmon fishing mortalities from each . The current FRAM base period for Coho Salmon includes catch years 1986-1992. During this period, fishing effort, tagging, and fishery sampling of Coho Salmon was high, allowing relatively fine-scale discrimination between salmon distributions. The marine distribution data of marked Coho Salmon populations in Canada was obtained through the Mark Recovery Program (MRP), operated by . Recoveries of coded-wire tagged and adipose-fin-clipped (AFC) marked Coho Salmon from various fisheries provide information on fishery and apparent marine distributions.

Table 4.11: Lower Fraser MU average annual (total) and time period specific ERs used in the current FRAM base period.
Fishery Jan-Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct-Dec Total
Newport Sport 0.01% 0.01% - - - 0.02%
Newport Troll 0.03% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% - 0.09%
Coos Bay Sport 0.00% 0.00% - - - 0.00%
Coos Bay Troll 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% - 0.04%
Tillamook Sport - 0.00% 0.00% - - 0.01%
Tillamook Troll 0.00% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% - 0.06%
Col. Rvr. Buoy 10 Sport - - 0.02% 0.02% - 0.04%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Sport - 0.02% 0.03% 0.01% - 0.06%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Troll 0.00% 0.03% 0.06% - - 0.09%
WA Area 2 Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% - 0.03%
WA Area 2 Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% - 0.04%
WA Area 2 Sport 0.02% 0.11% 0.07% 0.03% - 0.23%
WA Area 3 Non-Treaty Troll 0.02% 0.00% 0.04% 0.07% - 0.13%
WA Area 3 Treaty Troll 0.02% 0.08% 0.14% 0.12% - 0.37%
WA Area 3 Sport 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% - - 0.03%
WA Area 4 Sport - 0.14% 0.36% 0.18% - 0.68%
WA Area 4/4B Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.03% 0.29% 0.03% 0.01% 0.36%
WA Area 4/4B Treaty Troll 0.04% 0.43% 0.50% 0.13% 0.05% 1.14%
WA Area 5-6-6C Troll 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.02% 0.10%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.01% 0.06%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Treaty Net - 0.07% 0.21% 0.37% 1.35% 2.00%
WA Area 7-7A Non-Treaty Net - - 0.09% 0.77% 1.96% 2.82%
WA Area 7-7A Treaty Net - - 0.10% 1.33% 3.83% 5.26%
WA Area 5 Sport (Sekiu) 0.07% 0.35% 0.99% 1.53% 0.53% 3.48%
WA Area 6 Sport (Port Angeles) 0.01% 0.06% 0.03% 0.23% 0.19% 0.53%
WA Area 7 Sport (San Juan Islands) 0.02% 0.06% 0.08% 0.08% 0.36% 0.60%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Non-Treaty Net - - 0.00% 0.14% 0.17% 0.31%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Treaty Net - - 0.04% 0.20% 0.22% 0.46%
WA Area 8 Non-Treaty Net (Skagit) - - - 0.00% - 0.00%
WA Area 8 Treaty Net (Skagit) - - - 0.01% - 0.01%
WA Area 9 Sport (Admirality Inlet) 0.01% - - - 0.01% 0.02%
WA Area 8A Non-Treaty Net - - - - 0.01% 0.01%
WA Area 8A Treaty Net - - - - 0.01% 0.01%
WA Area 10 Sport (Seattle) - 0.01% - - 0.01% 0.01%
WA Area 10 Non-Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.06% 0.09% 0.15%
WA Area 10 Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.03% 0.05% 0.09%
WA Area 11 Non-Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%
WA Area 11 Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Treaty Net - - - 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
Lower Fraser R Term Catch - - - - 7.22% 7.22%
Lower Fraser River Sport 0.03% 0.07% 0.31% 0.28% 0.15% 0.84%
Johnstone Strait Troll 0.28% 1.47% 0.46% 0.52% - 2.73%
BC Northern Troll 0.00% 0.11% 0.07% 0.03% - 0.21%
BC North Central Troll 0.42% 0.23% 0.24% 0.10% - 0.98%
BC South Central Troll 0.30% 1.76% 0.46% 0.23% - 2.75%
NW Vancouver Island Troll 0.33% 5.47% 3.06% 2.39% - 11.25%
SW Vancouver Island Troll 0.72% 12.94% 10.80% 4.33% - 28.80%
Georgia Straits Troll 0.63% 6.42% 2.30% 2.14% 0.55% 12.04%
BC Juan de Fuca Troll - 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% - 0.01%
BC Northern Net - 0.01% - - - 0.01%
BC Central Net - 0.09% 0.05% - - 0.14%
SW Vancouver Island Net 0.01% - - 0.26% 0.10% 0.37%
Johnstone Straits Net - 0.03% 1.13% 0.85% 1.11% 3.11%
Georgia Straits Net - - 0.18% 0.04% 0.21% 0.44%
Fraser R Gill Net - - 0.06% 0.60% 4.37% 5.04%
BC Juan de Fuca Net - 0.22% 4.02% 2.92% 0.76% 7.91%
Johnstone Strait Sport 0.02% 0.12% 0.08% - - 0.22%
BC Central Sport - 0.06% - 0.07% - 0.13%
BC Juan de Fuca Sport 0.19% 0.76% 0.33% 1.40% 2.28% 4.97%
West Coast Vanc Is Sport 0.14% 0.08% 0.04% 0.03% - 0.30%
North Georgia Straits Sport 7.78% 5.66% 5.40% 2.90% 0.48% 22.21%
South Georgia Straits Sport 2.89% 0.61% 0.32% 0.42% 0.49% 4.73%
SEAK Southwest Troll - 0.01% 0.00% - - 0.01%
SEAK Southeast Troll - 0.00% 0.00% - - 0.00%
SEAK Northwest Troll - 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% - 0.02%
SEAK Northeast Troll - - 0.00% - - 0.00%
Southeast Alaska Net - - 0.01% 0.00% - 0.01%

El Nino events of the early 1990s initiated years of unfavourable marine conditions for Coho Salmon. Fish originating from the may spend their second ocean year either inside the Strait of Georgia or outside. The proximate cause of their varying location has not been explained, although their distribution is correlated with ocean conditions such as salinity. Beginning in 1994, Coho Salmon largely spent their second year outside the Strait of Georgia. This ‘choice’ may have indicated unfavourable conditions within the Strait at that time. Over the long term, urbanization and the destruction of habitat associated with that process also significantly impacted stocks within the . Notwithstanding the loss of habitat, the drastic reductions in escapement have most likely resulted in the underseeding of freshwater habitat in recent years, therefore, further limiting recruitment. High fishery relative to the steadily declining numbers surviving at sea and habitat degradation were the primary factors contributing to the reduction of spawning escapements. Therefore since 1997, Coho Salmon fisheries have been severely restricted in order to conserve Coho Salmon. These restrictions have resulted in stabilization and improvement of escapement levels, although overall stock abundance remained low. No official stock status has been defined for the , as no reference points have been established.

Catches of Fraser Coho Salmon have been extremely low due to long-term restrictions of fisheries implemented to conserve stocks of serious conservation concern, i.e., Coho Salmon. Previous to the restrictions, the primary fisheries harvesting Coho Salmon were the West Coast Vancouver Island (WCVI) troll and Georgia Strait sport fisheries. The Georgia Strait sport fishery catch declined in 1991 and then again after 1993. This decline resulted from decreased effort in response to a lower abundance of wild fish due to poor marine survival rates. WCVI troll catch declined in 1991 and 1992 but remained high until 1996, just prior to the restriction of Coho Salmon retention in this fishery. In 1998 and 1999, the retention of unmarked Coho Salmon was prohibited in Canadian waters. Only a few local mark-only fisheries were authorized. The restrictions significantly lowered catch levels and recoveries were primarily from Washington and Alaska fisheries.

Marine of Coho Salmon from Inch Creek and Salmon River Coho from 1985 to 1996 averaged approximately 74%. After fisheries restrictions were implemented in 1997, rates drastically declined for both hatchery and wild indicator stocks and remained below 13%. Estimated for the Salmon river stock began decreasing in 1995, resulting from reduced effort associated with a lower abundance of wild fish. There was a further decline in 1998 and 1999 when further harvesting restrictions were implemented.

More recently, an emerging technology analyzing genetic stock identification (GSI) in the form of single nucleotide polymorphisms loci (SNPs) combined with PBT (percentage-based tagging) has provided accurate estimates of stock composition of Coho Salmon in mixed-stock fisheries. Catch samples are compared to a baseline composed of 57,982 individuals of Coho Salmon ranging from Russia, the United States, and Canada (Beacham et al. 2020). From the 2020 research, it is demonstrated that the individuals from the CUs were caught in six of the eight mixed-stock fisheries analyzed throughout BC. Specifically, the Nicomen Slough sport fishery was composed almost entirely of Coho Salmon with the exception of one individual from WCVI, indicating incidence of stays. The CUs were not detected in the Stikine commercial and test fishery and the Barkley Sound sport samples (Beacham et al. 2020). In all other fisheries, species composition indicated low levels of Coho Salmon catch. Additional information from the collected confirmed the ability of the baseline to provide reliable estimates of composition in the mixed stock fisheries.

Figure 4.30: Post-season estimates of fishery mortality for the Lower Fraser by mark-selective (MSF) and non-selective (NS) fisheries over catch years 1998 through 2021. These estimates are combined US and Canadian harvest impacts.

Total , Escapement, and abundance for the has been modeled based on the survival scalar in Backwards FRAM for the return years 2004-2022 (Table 4.12). abundance and escapement are modeled values that are not direct estimates as abundance data for the Coho Salmon is limited. Overall, the estimated abundance has averaged 25,800 from 2010-2019 return years. In the more recent years, there has been an increase in abundance, particularly from 2016-2019. During this period, run size averaged 34,245, which is almost 10,000 more fish than the long-term average. Prior to 2016, abundance was steadily declining. In 2014, Coho Salmon increased substantially due to high bycatch in Sockeye-directed fisheries. In 2015 a similar situation occurred, however, in Pink fisheries. The lower abundance estimate produced in 2017 could be related to the reduced escapement for the 2014 and 2015 brood years due to the reasons outlined above. Additional environmental factors other than fisheries affect Coho Salmon abundance during this time. Specifically, a large “Blob” of warm waters began to form during the winter of 2013-2014, peaking in 2015. The Blob created an unprecedented shift in the distribution of marine animals that impacted predation and competition ultimately, producing areas of low productivity affecting several fisheries (Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2019). Both the Blob and increased Coho Salmon impacts in Sockeye and Pink fisheries could have led to the decrease in Coho Salmon abundance for the 2014 – 2017 return years. Although good-quality escapement data is limited for the , escapement to streams surveyed by foot or through swims have generally been low in recent years.

ToDo: ADD TABLE sheet “LWFR_ER” . Post-season summary of total , abundance, and escapement estimates for return years 1986-2019. Data represents cohort abundances of ocean age 3 Coho Salmon. Values are modelled FRAM outputs and not direct estimates. Escapement values are of terminal run size occurring after lower Fraser in river fisheries. for catch years 1986 to 1997 were estimated using analysis with the Mixed-Stock Model cohort reconstruction. for catch years 2004 to 2019 were estimated using the post-season FRAM assessment technique. Cohort reconstructions have not been completed for the Canadian between 1998 and 2003.

Table 4.12: Historical summary of annual total abundance (January age-3 without natural mortality), adult escapement, and (ER) of the Lower Fraser Management Unit; since 2004.
catch_year abundance escapement
ER
Canada SUS
2004 67,385 56,822 1.5% 14.1%
2005 16,843 15,244 4.7% 4.8%
2006 17,386 15,773 3.2% 6.1%
2007 74,841 66,052 5.1% 6.6%
2008 3,471 3,160 4.2% 4.6%
2009 21,561 18,772 3.4% 9.4%
2010 26,647 24,411 2.8% 5.5%
2011 16,809 12,840 12.3% 11.3%
2012 16,819 13,806 8.3% 9.6%
2013 16,872 12,208 16.0% 11.6%
2014 4,107 1,773 35.8% 21.0%
2015 16,863 9,778 27.4% 14.6%
2016 48,764 42,723 7.3% 5.0%
2017 16,802 14,715 7.3% 5.1%
2018 48,897 43,025 6.4% 5.6%
2019 42,572 36,605 5.9% 8.0%
2020 85,395 77,156 4.1% 5.5%
2021 47,539 43,860 5.0% 2.7%
2022 78,093 70,053 4.6% 5.7%
Figure 4.31: Total exploitation rate (A) and escapement (B) of Lower Fraser MU by country, catch years 1986 through 2022. Dashed line indicates escapement goal for the Lower Fraser MU (Need esc goal for lwfr 30,000 individuals).

Escapement estimates for the Inch Creek indicator stock are calculated through expansion of recoveries and are detailed in (Figure 4.32). Over the entire time series, there has been an overall increase in the escapement, with the last four years being the highest. However, there was a moderate drop during the 2010-2012 time period. It is unclear the reason for the reduction. Many different factors could have contributed to the decline.

Figure 4.32: Inch Creek escapement years 1986-2017 brood year. Escapement estimates only include Coho Salmon returning to the Inch Creek Hatchery.
Historical Overview of Status of Management Unit
Figure 4.33: Lower Fraser post-season estimates of ocean age-3 abundances, escapement, and harvest for catch years 2004 through 2021. The vertical dotted lines highlight catch year 2010)
Table 4.13: Preseason and post-season abundance estimates for Lower Fraser from 2004 onwards.
catch_year abund_preseason abund_postseason
2004 5,618.6 67,385.3
2005 13,108.0 16,843.4
2006 5,615.4 17,385.7
2007 5,614.7 74,840.8
2008 14,518.3 3,470.8
2009 1,166.9 21,561.0
2010 10,237.6 26,647.4
2011 16,810.9 16,808.5
2012 16,806.3 16,819.2
2013 16,815.6 16,872.1
2014 16,839.4 4,107.4
2015 16,838.6 16,862.5
2016 3,907.1 48,763.6
2017 16,810.5 16,801.8
2018 19,535.8 48,897.1
2019 25,696.1 42,571.8
2020 21,642.8 85,395.2
2021 24,884.1 47,539.1
2022 25,428.3 78,092.7
2023 61,555.4 NA
2024 66,004.2 NA
Factors Affecting Management Unit Status

While Coho Salmon behave differently and exist in a different geographic area than Coho Salmon, the threats outlined in the Interior Fraser Coho Recovery Potential Assessment (Arbeider 2020) generally pertain to the .

Climate Change

Impacts from climate change on Fraser Coho Salmon are anticipated to be significant. Recent research suggests Pink and Chum salmon may be increasing in abundance due to climate warming in the North Pacific while Chinook and Coho Salmon are decreasing (Irvine and Fukuwaka 2011). Generally, freshwater environments are expected to be more negatively affected by climate warming compared to marine areas. Therefore, due to their long residency in freshwater and estuary habitats, Coho Salmon may be more vulnerable to climate change. Morrison et al. (2002) discerned that Fraser River peak flows are occurring earlier and summer water temperatures are higher compared to historic levels. Their model predicts by 2070-2099, overall flows will increase by 5%, but a decrease in peak flows of approximately 18% and 24 days earlier than the base period. In this same period, summer temperatures are predicted to increase by 1.9 degrees. Incidences of temperatures reaching 20 degrees and higher are expected to increase 10 fold, resulting in the potential of increased pre-spawn mortalities for Fraser salmon (Morrison et al. 2002). In addition to freshwater warming, the marine environment has limited Coho Salmon productivity. Recent low marine survival rates may be associated with poor environmental conditions within the Strait of Georgia. The proportion of Coho Salmon rearing within the Strait during their second year in the Pacific varies yearly. In recent years there has been an increased propensity of Coho Salmon leaving the Strait perhaps suggesting poor rearing conditions within the area. Furthermore, the warming of Northern Pacific waters formed in the winter of 2013, named “the Blob”, created unprecedented shifts in marine zooplankton productivity (Cavole et al. 2016). The warming waters initiated a transition in the predominant copepod species, increasing the abundance of less-nutritious warm-water species and decreasing the abundance of fatty cold-water copepods. Coho Salmon are dependent on cold water lipid-rich copepods as a food source during the early life stages. This shift in copepod species abundance may have impacted Coho Salmon recruitment (Cavole et al. 2016).

Climate change and global warming will likely intensify many other threats to Coho Salmon, generating cumulative impacts and hindering current management measures aimed at conservation (Arbeider 2020).

Land Use

Loss of suitable spawning and rearing freshwater habitat is a serious issue in the lower Fraser. Greater Vancouver, located within the , is the most populous city in British Columbia. Development and the effects associated with urbanization in Greater Vancouver, such as habitat destruction, water withdrawal, pollution, etc., have negatively impacted many salmon-bearing streams. An estimated 70% of the lower Fraser floodplain has been separated by dyke systems (Finn et al. 2021). Moreover, the majority of streams in the lower Fraser are categorized as threatened or endangered due to drainage of wetlands, degradation of the riparian zone, urban development, pollution, and dyking (Finn et al. 2021). Land within the lower Fraser Valley is highly impacted through extensive agriculture and forestry practices. Low water quality also represents a threat to juvenile Coho. The Fraser River drains an estimated one-quarter of BC’s total land area introducing elevated levels of chemicals, metals, and sewage from agriculture, mills, and industrial development into the lower Fraser estuary (Chittenden et al. 2010). Several restoration projects undertaken by the and local community groups are attempting to mitigate these impacts. Projects range from simple stream clean-ups to the construction of artificial spawning and rearing channels.

Harvest

Fisheries targeting Fraser Coho Salmon are limited due to highly restrictive management measures first implemented in 1997 to protect Coho Salmon. These fisheries restrictions are known to provide some protection to Coho Salmon as well. However, due to slight differences in run timing between the two , Coho Salmon may be impacted in late season fisheries in some years (Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2018) when the Coho Salmon window closure has concluded. The majority of Coho Salmon fishery mortalities occurring are incidental catches or through catch in mark-selective fisheries.

4.2.3 Strait of Georgia

This description was prepared by Canadian members of the Coho Technical Committee.

4.2.3.1 Biological and Geographic Description

Figure 4.34: Strait of Georgia MU Watershed

4.2.3.2 Management Framework

Objectives
Stock Assessment
Indicator Stocks
Figure 4.35: Number of wild fish caught, tagged, and released by clip status, within the Strait of Georgia MU over brood years 1983 through 2020.
Figure 4.36: Total number of coded-wire-tagged hatchery Coho Salmon released, by clip status, within the Strait of Georgia MU for brood years 1983 through 2020.
Forecast Methods
Escapement Monitoring
Fishery Monitoring
Enhancement
Figure 4.37: Hatchery production of Coho Salmon released within the Strait of Georgia , brood years 1983 through 2020.

4.2.3.3 Management Performance

Forecast Evaluation
Figure 4.38: Comparison of preseason abundance predictions with the post-season estimates for the Strait of Georgia MU.
Fishery Mortality and Escapement

The base period for the FRAM defines the temporal and spatial distributions of salmon fishing mortalities from each . The current FRAM base period for Coho Salmon includes catch years 1986-1992. During this period, fishing effort, tagging, and fishery sampling of Coho Salmon was high, allowing relatively fine-scale discrimination between salmon distributions. The marine distribution data of marked Coho Salmon populations in Canada was obtained through the Mark Recovery Program (MRP), operated by . Recoveries of coded-wire tagged and adipose-fin-clipped (AFC) marked Coho Salmon from various fisheries provide information on fishery and apparent marine distributions.

Table 4.14: Strait of Georgia MU average annual (total) and time period specific ERs used in the current FRAM base period.
Fishery Jan-Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct-Dec Total
Brookings Troll - 0.00% 0.00% - - 0.00%
Newport Sport 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% - - 0.01%
Newport Troll 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% - 0.03%
Coos Bay Sport 0.00% - 0.01% - - 0.01%
Coos Bay Troll 0.00% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% - 0.03%
Tillamook Sport - 0.00% 0.01% - - 0.01%
Tillamook Troll 0.00% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% - 0.05%
Col. Rvr. Buoy 10 Sport - - 0.01% 0.01% - 0.03%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Sport - 0.01% 0.01% - - 0.02%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Troll 0.00% 0.04% 0.03% - - 0.07%
WA Area 2 Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% - - 0.03%
WA Area 2 Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% - - 0.03%
WA Area 2 Sport 0.03% 0.09% 0.05% - - 0.17%
WA Area 3 Non-Treaty Troll 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% - 0.04%
WA Area 3 Treaty Troll 0.02% 0.03% 0.04% 0.02% - 0.10%
WA Area 3 Sport - 0.02% 0.01% - - 0.03%
WA Area 4 Sport 0.00% 0.21% 0.10% 0.02% - 0.32%
WA Area 4/4B Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.01% 0.16% 0.07% - 0.24%
WA Area 4/4B Treaty Troll 0.01% 0.22% 0.27% 0.25% - 0.76%
WA Area 5-6-6C Troll 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Non-Treaty Net 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.00% 0.05%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Treaty Net 0.01% 0.11% 0.34% 0.36% 0.48% 1.30%
WA Area 7-7A Non-Treaty Net - 0.04% 0.33% 0.87% 0.46% 1.70%
WA Area 7-7A Treaty Net - 0.04% 0.36% 1.50% 0.90% 2.80%
WA Area 5 Sport (Sekiu) 0.11% 0.35% 0.49% 0.57% 0.13% 1.65%
WA Area 6 Sport (Port Angeles) 0.02% 0.07% 0.06% 0.16% 0.10% 0.42%
WA Area 7 Sport (San Juan Islands) 0.00% 0.20% 0.31% 0.08% 0.22% 0.81%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Non-Treaty Net - - 0.00% 0.07% 0.05% 0.13%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Treaty Net - - 0.02% 0.10% 0.07% 0.19%
WA Area 8 Non-Treaty Net (Skagit) - - 0.02% - - 0.02%
WA Area 8 Treaty Net (Skagit) - - 0.01% - - 0.01%
WA Area 9 Sport (Admirality Inlet) - - - 0.01% - 0.01%
WA Area 8A Non-Treaty Net - - - - 0.01% 0.01%
WA Area 8A Treaty Net - - - - 0.02% 0.02%
WA Area 10 Sport (Seattle) - - 0.01% 0.01% - 0.03%
WA Area 10 Non-Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.06% 0.04% 0.10%
WA Area 10 Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.03% 0.02% 0.06%
WA Area 11 Sport (Tacoma) - - 0.01% - - 0.01%
Lower Fraser River Sport 0.00% 0.02% 0.05% 0.04% - 0.11%
Johnstone Strait Troll 0.14% 1.40% 0.58% 0.23% 0.13% 2.49%
BC Northern Troll - 0.37% 0.38% 0.05% - 0.80%
BC North Central Troll - 0.73% 0.35% 0.17% - 1.25%
BC South Central Troll 1.05% 3.63% 1.42% 0.48% - 6.58%
NW Vancouver Island Troll 0.23% 5.73% 3.08% 1.77% - 10.81%
SW Vancouver Island Troll 0.43% 7.11% 5.26% 1.43% - 14.22%
Georgia Straits Troll 0.43% 3.81% 1.13% 1.27% 0.41% 7.05%
BC Juan de Fuca Troll - 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% - 0.01%
BC Northern Net - 0.06% 0.06% 0.00% - 0.13%
BC Central Net - 0.57% 0.28% 0.27% - 1.12%
NW Vancouver Island Net - - - - 0.01% 0.01%
SW Vancouver Island Net 0.02% 0.01% - 0.08% 0.07% 0.17%
Johnstone Straits Net - 0.08% 4.30% 3.29% 1.50% 9.18%
Georgia Straits Net - 0.10% 0.36% 0.11% 2.03% 2.61%
Fraser R Gill Net - 0.06% 0.61% 0.25% 0.13% 1.04%
BC Juan de Fuca Net 0.00% 0.20% 4.27% 2.13% 0.08% 6.69%
Johnstone Strait Sport 0.11% 0.38% 0.38% - - 0.87%
BC Northern Sport - - - 0.00% - 0.00%
BC Central Sport 0.01% 0.14% 0.84% 0.44% - 1.42%
BC Juan de Fuca Sport 0.54% 1.01% 0.48% 0.98% 0.63% 3.65%
West Coast Vanc Is Sport 0.23% 0.23% 0.08% 0.12% - 0.65%
North Georgia Straits Sport 9.45% 8.06% 7.40% 4.37% 1.11% 30.39%
South Georgia Straits Sport 2.95% 1.27% 1.69% 1.21% 0.43% 7.56%
SEAK Southwest Troll - 0.01% 0.04% 0.04% - 0.10%
SEAK Southeast Troll 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.03% - 0.09%
SEAK Northwest Troll - 0.02% 0.05% 0.01% - 0.08%
SEAK Northeast Troll - 0.01% 0.00% - - 0.01%
Southeast Alaska Net - 0.01% 0.14% - - 0.15%
Figure 4.39: Post-season estimates of fishery mortality for the Strait of Georgia by mark-selective (MSF) and non-selective (NS) fisheries over catch years 1998 through 2021. These estimates are combined US and Canadian harvest impacts.
Table 4.15: Historical summary of annual total abundance (January age-3 without natural mortality), adult escapement, and (ER) of the Strait of Georgia Management Unit; since 2004.
catch_year abundance escapement
ER
Canada SUS
2004 306,419 281,303 3.0% 4.7%
2005 48,138 43,176 7.6% 2.4%
2006 51,218 46,341 5.8% 3.5%
2007 220,554 193,396 9.3% 2.5%
2008 15,361 13,847 7.9% 1.6%
2009 65,107 56,915 8.2% 4.0%
2010 80,449 74,314 4.9% 2.4%
2011 26,576 22,188 12.5% 3.6%
2012 28,866 24,272 12.7% 3.0%
2013 57,344 42,532 20.8% 4.4%
2014 42,333 28,757 26.3% 5.3%
2015 12,750 8,909 24.9% 4.8%
2016 12,356 11,134 8.5% 1.1%
2017 12,636 11,404 8.0% 1.5%
2018 45,757 39,200 11.4% 2.5%
2019 32,727 27,438 12.0% 3.8%
2020 109,574 101,501 4.7% 2.5%
2021 140,232 131,174 4.7% 1.4%
2022 128,444 117,105 6.3% 2.3%
Figure 4.40: Total exploitation rate (A) and escapement (B) of Strait of Georgia MU by country, catch years 1986 through 2022. Dashed line indicates escapement goal for the Strait of Georgia MU (Need esc goal for gs 30,000 individuals).
Historical Overview of Status of Management Unit
Figure 4.41: Strait of Georgia post-season estimates of ocean age-3 abundances, escapement, and harvest for catch years 2004 through 2021. The vertical dotted lines highlight catch year 2010)
Table 4.16: Preseason and post-season abundance estimates for Strait of Georgia from 2004 onwards.
catch_year abund_preseason abund_postseason
2004 324,767.9 306,419.5
2005 158,722.7 48,138.1
2006 108,304.6 51,217.7
2007 204,321.8 220,554.1
2008 43,858.6 15,361.2
2009 36,433.1 65,107.2
2010 100,612.3 80,448.7
2011 40,868.1 26,576.5
2012 55,485.3 28,866.1
2013 43,920.7 57,343.7
2014 71,802.9 42,332.6
2015 70,169.3 12,749.8
2016 13,219.0 12,356.4
2017 16,844.9 12,635.6
2018 10,146.0 45,756.9
2019 14,845.7 32,727.2
2020 11,893.4 109,573.6
2021 34,259.4 140,231.7
2022 73,440.7 128,443.7
2023 120,390.9 NA
2024 279,714.3 NA

4.2.4 Skagit

This description was prepared by U.S. members of the Coho Technical Committee.

4.2.4.1 Biological and Geographic Description

The Skagit is one of the US Inside (refer to figure of inside MUs). This is comprised of all wild Coho Salmon that originate from the Skagit Basin. The Skagit River consists of Coho Salmon in the Skagit River Basin and its major tributaries, the Baker, Sauk-Suiattle, and Cascade Rivers. The Skagit River is located in Northern Puget Sound midway between Seattle, Washington and Vancouver, British Columbia. The Skagit Basin drains the northern Cascade Mountains, flowing westward to Puget Sound and enters Puget Sound southwest of the city of Mt Vernon after splitting into to two similar-sized channels several miles above tidewater (Haymes 2008). The basin area accessible to anadromous salmonids downstream of the Skagit River reservoir system is 1,918 mi2 [4,968 km2] (Volkhardt et al. 2007). It drains Puget Sound’s largest basin, with an area of nearly 4,000 mi2 and an average discharge of over 16,000 cfs (one-third of the freshwater inflow to Puget Sound). It is the second largest river system in the state of Washington in terms of annual discharge, after the Columbia River. The Skagit River contains 162 miles of mainstem river, with its origin in the Coveole Mountains of British Columbia.

The mainstem Skagit and Sauk rivers have two periods of peak flow, first during winter rain and snowmelt events, and the second during peak snow runoff in spring and early summer. The smaller tributaries are largely rain-fed, and have peak flow events during the winter rain season. Average annual rainfall is 35 inches [89 cm] per year at Mt. Vernon in the lower valley, increasing to up to 180 inches [457 cm] per year in the upper basin. Three large reservoirs in the upper Skagit River drainage (the first located at river mile (RM) 96.6 [KM 155.5] from the estuary) and two in the Baker River drainage provide flood control and hydroelectric generation. Upriver fish passage is only provided at the Baker Reservoir system, via a trap and haul system located at a diversion dam 0.3 miles [0.5 km] upstream of the Baker River confluence with the Skagit River at a diversion dam. Puget Sound Energy completed construction of this new, enhanced fish trap below Lower Baker Dam to capture migrating adult salmon for upstream transport around both Baker River dams. Construction on a juvenile salmon downstream fish trap, a floating surface collector, was completed in 2008 behind the upper Baker River Dam. A similar fish trap is under construction on Lake Shannon, below Lower Baker Dam.

In the 3,910 mi2 [10,127 km2] watershed, 19% is owned by private and Washington State entities, 24% is managed by the Mt Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest, 44% by the North Cascade National Park and Recreation Area, and 13% is located within British Columbia (Beechie et al. 1994). The Skagit Bay estuary is partially enclosed by Whidbey Island to the west and Camano Island to the south. Relatively minimal development is located directly adjacent to the estuary in most areas. The WDFW Skagit Wildlife Area fronts the southeastern edge of Skagit Bay at the river mouth, and the northeastern end of the bay is bounded by the Swinomish Indian Reservation.

Recreational, conservation, and commercial forest activities are prevalent in the mid- and upper basin reaches. The lower and mid-basin areas have significant habitat impacts from agricultural and residential/commercial development in the floodplain and surrounding uplands. Extensive flood control structures degrade the salmonid habitat in the floodplain and estuary, with over 60 miles [97 km] of historically available slough and tributary habitat lost from the construction of flood control structures alone. The rapidly growing city of Mount Vernon, located adjacent to the Skagit River at RM 11 [KM 18] from the estuary, is the largest urban center in the . Other moderate-sized communities located in the are Burlington and Sedro Woolley, also located in the Skagit River floodplain a few miles upstream of Mt Vernon. Human population densities decline upstream of Sedro Woolley, though smaller, residentially-oriented communities are scattered along the Skagit mainstem upstream to the town of Newhalem at RM 96 (KM 154]. The Sauk River valley has only one significant population center, Darrington, located at RM 22 [KM 35] from the Sauk/Skagit confluence, though residential development and some agricultural activity is scattered along the valley floor.

In the upper reaches of the Skagit watershed, the land is primarily forested and moderately steep gradient; the main land use in this area is forestry. Below the confluence with the Sauk, the valley broadens and flattens and is used extensively for agriculture.

A major limiting factor on Skagit Coho Salmon production is floodplain diking and hydromodification, which has reduced distributary slough area by about 64%, and off-channel slough area by about 45% (Beechie et al. 1994). This has reduced Coho Salmon smolt production by an estimated 300,000 smolts per year (Puget Sound Salmon Stock Review Group 1992). Improperly placed culverts have also restricted access to a significant amount of tributary spawning and rearing habitat. Poor water quality and abnormally high flows, which are caused by agricultural practices and clear-cutting, have reduced production in much of the lower basin (Beamer et al. (2000)).

There are currently two recognized Coho Salmon populations in the system, Baker and Skagit (WDFW and WWTIT 1994). The Baker run historically entered the system somewhat earlier than the Skagit run, but the two populations are nonetheless managed as a single MU because: 1) there is considerable overlap in run timing, which would make it difficult to manage for separate escapement goals for each run; and 2) hatchery practices have so crossbred Baker and Skagit Coho Salmon that it is questionable whether a genetically separate Baker run population exists anymore (WDFW and WWTIT 1994).

Skagit Coho Salmon belong to the larger Puget Sound/Strait of Georgia Coho Salmon evolutionarily significant unit (ESU) (Weitkamp et al. 1995). This ESU is currently a species of concern under the US Endangered Species Act (Ford 2011).

Numerous salmon hatchery facilities exist within the Skagit Basin, including small and large operations (MU figure). Below is a list of the larger Coho Salmon programs that are operating in the Skagit Basin.

  • The WDFW operates the Marblemount Hatchery on the Cascade River at RM 0.5 at the confluence with Clark Creek (MU figure). The Cascade River is a tributary to the Skagit River at RM 78. Marblemount Hatchery was constructed in 1946 and currently rears Skagit spring, summer, and fall Chinook Salmon; Skagit Coho Salmon; Skagit Steelhead; and Ross Lake Rainbow Trout (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife 2003a). The Coho Salmon program is operated as an isolated harvest program with an annual production goal of 250,000 smolts to be released on station, 45,000 fish to net pen projects (Oak Harbor and Roche Harbor), 100,000 fish to Skagit System Coop (Swinomish Tribe), and 13,000 eggs to educational and volunteer cooperatives. Its current purpose is to provide harvest opportunity for non-tribal sport and commercial fishers and tribal fishers (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife 2003a). This program collects adult broodstock on-site, and has egg incubation and rearing facilities. Within the Skagit approximately 77% of the total hatchery fish reported to have been released for brood years 1983 through 2020 has been from the Marblemount Hatchery.

  • A fish culture facility has also been in operation on the Baker River since the early 1970s, producing Sockeye, Rainbow Trout, and Coho Salmon (WDFW_and_PSE_2003?). Puget Sound Energy completed construction in 2010 of a new hatchery on the Baker River near the upper Baker Dam. Coho Salmon fry from this program are transported to net pens on Lake Shannon and they are later released as smolts into the Baker River and both reservoirs. This Coho Salmon program is operated as an integrated harvest and research program with an annual goal of releasing 60,000 smolts. The purpose of this program is to supply experimental and research smolts for gulper efficiency testing, serve as an indicator stock for wild Skagit Coho Salmon, and supplement natural production in the basin.

  • Coho Salmon are also reared in net pens within the Oak Harbor Marina (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife 2003b). This Coho Salmon program is a marine net pen program operated by WDFW and local sport angling groups and usually receives stock from the Marblemount Hatchery and is operated as an isolated program with an annual goal of releasing 30,000 smolts. The purpose of this program is to provide harvest opportunity for sport and commercial fishers.

4.2.4.2 Management Framework

Objectives

Under the Comprehensive Coho Management Plan, Skagit River wild Coho Salmon is the primary (or key) and hatchery production are either secondary (Swinomish Channel, Oak Harbor Pens) or auxiliary (Marblemount Hatchery, Baker River Hatchery) (Comprehensive Coho Workgroup 1998). Under this plan, primary are controlling units in the sense that predefined management actions will be undertaken under specified abundance conditions, auxiliary are those managed to meet or exceed a minimum escapement, and secondary units are passively managed in mixed stock fisheries. Therefore, Skagit River Coho Salmon are managed for natural (wild) production. * JJ question - So, hatchery fish spawning in the river count towards the wild escapement goal, or not? This type of specificity should be spelled out for each MU very clearly.* While there is hatchery production within the system, fisheries are constrained to meet the natural escapement objectives. Thus, there are frequently significant surplus returns to the Marblemount Hatchery on the Cascade River. There have been fisheries in the Skagit terminal area targeted at hatchery Coho Salmon, but these have been sporadic, and have been confined to small areas (e.g., the creek immediately downstream of the hatchery, Swinomish Channel from 1986–1991, and Oak Harbor from 1994–1996).

Skagit Coho Salmon are also a primary for Puget Sound under the FMP (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2013). Other primary in this region are Strait of Juan de Fuca, Hood Canal, Snohomish, Stillaguamish, and South Puget Sound (hatchery) Coho Salmon (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2013). The ’s conservation objectives for these are based on the Puget Sound Salmon Management Plan, which includes management objectives and long-term goals for these stocks as developed by representatives from federal, state, and tribal agencies.

In Puget Sound, conservation objectives for specific stocks are based on either maximum sustainable production for stocks managed primarily for natural production or on hatchery escapement needs for stocks managed for artificial production. The original conservation objectives were developed by a State/Tribal Management Plan Development Team following the Boldt Decision (384 F. Supp. 312 [W.D. Wash. 1974]) with the goal for natural spawning stocks defined as “the adult spawning population that will, on the average, maximize biomass of juvenile outmigrants subsequent to incubation and freshwater rearing under average environmental conditions”. The method used to develop the objectives was based on assessment of the quantity and quality of rearing habitat and the number of adult spawners required to fully seed the habitat. Some objectives have subsequently been modified by the US District Court Fisheries Advisory Board and later determinations of the WDFW/Tribal Technical Committee. However, annual natural management objectives may be adopted by the and authorized by NMFS which vary from the fisheries management plan (FMP) conservation objectives if agreed to by WDFW and the treaty Indian tribes under the provisions of US versus Washington (384 F. Supp. 312 [W.D. Wash. 1974]) and subsequent US District Court orders.

In 2009, the adopted annual management objectives for Puget Sound Coho Salmon as recommended by WDFW and tribal co-managers under provisions of US versus Washington. The annual objectives were based on the categorical status and associated maximum limits. The formally adopted management objectives for Puget Sound Coho Salmon in November 2009, which were consistent with objectives, and in 2010 these new objectives replaced the longstanding FMP spawning escapement objectives.

The current / ceilings for the Skagit natural Coho Salmon population are provided in the table below. The current corresponding ocean abundance reference points are 62,500 and 22,857 adult Coho Salmon (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2013). Prior to adoption of -based management for this in domestic and international management processes, natural Skagit River origin Coho Salmon were managed for a fixed escapement goal of 30,000. This goal was derived from a freshwater juvenile carrying capacity model (Zillges 1977).

Table 4.17: Current Skagit ocean abundance reference breakpoints and maximum total by and status categories.
Status(/) Ocean Abundance
Reference Breakpoint
Total Exploitation Rate
Low/Critical < 22,858 Up to 20%
Moderate/Low 22,858 – 62,500 21% – 35%
Abundant/Normal > 62,500 36% – 60%
Stock Assessment
Indicator Stocks

The Skagit MU has both hatchery and wild Coho Salmon indicator stock programs. Wild Yearling Coho Salmon are captured, coded-wire-tagged, and released within the Skagit Basin (Litz 2023). These releases are currently used as a marine survival rate indicator for the wild stock. The Skagit hatchery stock releases from Marblemount Hatchery and the tagged wild stock releases are used as indicator stocks. Coho Salmon released from Marblemount Hatchery have been double index tagged starting with brood year 1994.

Coded wire tag recovery-based survival and data are available for the Marblemount Hatchery and wild Coho Salmon tagging programs (Haymes 2008). The wild stock program (AKA Baker River program) began with broodyear 1983 and its purpose is to supply experimental and research smolts for gulper efficiency testing, serve as an indicator stock for wild Skagit Coho Salmon, and supplement natural production in the basin (WDFW_and_PSE_2003?). An average of 39,000 Baker Lake wild smolts were captured, coded-wire tagged, and adipose fin clipped annually (Figure 4.42) for broodyears 1983 through 1995. Beginning with brood year 1996, an average of 20,000 fish have been captured and released annually with a and their fins intact. The Marblemount Hatchery Coho Salmon program has been in existence for over 64 years and its purpose is to provide harvest opportunity (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife 2003a). The hatchery indicator program is currently a program (differentially tagged fish released with or without adipose clips) with a goal of releasing 45,000 tagged fish of each group, one with an adipose fin clip and one without (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife 2003a) (Figure 4.43). Annual tagged and adipose fin clipped releases prior to the implementation of the program were 68,000 on average (Table 12.1). The program began with brood year 1994 and an average of 70,000 tagged and clipped fish have been released annually, while tagged and unclipped fish have averaged approximately 44,000 annually. values for the non-ad clipped+ Coho Salmon provide a surrogate measure of exploitation for natural origin Coho Salmon from this . There is no regular sampling of the freshwater sport fisheries in the , which results in some negative bias in tag recoveries. Double index tag groups released for the Skagit are provided below.

Figure 4.42: Number of wild fish caught, tagged, and released by clip status, within the Skagit MU over brood years 1983 through 2020.
Figure 4.43: Total number of coded-wire-tagged hatchery Coho Salmon released, by clip status, within the Skagit MU for brood years 1983 through 2020.
Forecast Methods

Since 1996, WDFW and tribal biologists have developed forecasts of wild Coho Salmon run size for all primary and most secondary in Puget Sound and the Washington coast (Zimmerman 2013). These annual forecasts are described in the ’s Preseason Forecast I document available each February [e.g., Pacific Fishery Management Council (2013); www.pcouncil.org]. These forecasts rely on estimates of wild Coho Salmon production (i.e., smolts) paired with estimates of marine survival. Wild Coho Salmon production estimates for each of the primary and secondary in Puget Sound were derived from results of juvenile trapping studies conducted in the Skagit, Stillaguamish, Snohomish, Green, Nisqually, and Deschutes rivers as well as in tributaries to Lake Washington and Hood Canal. Analyses of these long-term data sets have demonstrated that wild Coho Salmon smolt production is limited by a combination of factors including seeding levels (i.e., escapement), environmental effects (flows, marine derived nutrients), and habitat degradation (Zimmerman 2012).

Estimates of wild Coho Salmon production in the Skagit Basin are based on catch of wild Coho Salmon smolts in a juvenile trapping program on the lower mainstem Skagit River (Litz 2023). WDFW operates a scoop-and-screw trap combination in the lower Skagit River mainstem, located at RM 17 from the river mouth. Trapping began in 1990 and the juvenile trap is calibrated using recaptures of wild yearling Coho marked and released from an upstream tributary (Mannser Creek, RM 35). Coho Salmon abundance is calculated using a Petersen estimator with Chapman modification (Seber 1973; Volkhardt et al. 2007). Estimated smolt production has been quite consistent in the Skagit , averaging 1.1 million smolts annually from 1990 to 2022 (Figure 4.44). Smolt production has varied from a low of 426,963 in 2008 to a high of 1,885,000 in 2002 and has exceeded 1,000,000 smolts in 20 of the last 33 years. Freshwater productivity (smolts/female) during this period was a function of Coho spawner abundance. The smolt-spawner function derived based on Skagit Coho Salmon estimates is comparable to systems with census counts, lending further credibility to the Skagit juvenile and adult estimates.

Figure 4.44: Estimated number of Skagit MU wild Coho Salmon smolts outmigrants, years 1990 through 2022

Marine survival rates of wild Coho Salmon stocks have been estimated using wild indicator stocks in four geographic regions of Puget Sound: Big Beef Creek (within the Hood Canal MU); Deschutes River; South Fork Skykomish River; and Baker River (within the Skagit MU) (Zimmerman 2012). These populations are assumed to be representative of the different Puget Sound regions. In the Baker River, a tributary to the Skagit River, marine survival of Coho Salmon smolts has averaged 7.8% (range of 1.1% and 13.9%) over 29 brood years (1989–1997, 2000–2020), with a high of 13.9% for brood year 1987 and a low of 1.1% for brood year 2003. High survival (>11.5%) for brood years 2020 through 2022 is encouraging.

Figure 4.45: Estimated marine survival rates for Baker River Coho Salmon, (data provided by M. Litz, WDFW).

Most Recent Abundance Forecast and Methods

This information is available in the ’s 2024 Preseason Report 1 (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2024c) and (Litz 2024).

The 2024 Skagit abundance forecast is 63,430, resulting in a classification of the stock abundance as “Abundant” under the 2019 and “Normal” under the . This results in an allowable total of no more than 60%.

This forecast was based on a prediction of total (Baker wild + Skagit wild) smolt to ocean age-3 survival. Note that this forecast is not based on the Baker River wild indicator survival. Instead, the total survival was calculated assuming that the ratio of total wild terminal run size to Baker River wild indicator run size is equal to the ratio of total pre-terminal wild catch to Baker River pre-terminal wild catch. Using that ratio, total wild run size was calculated utilizing pieces of the Skagit co-manager run reconstruction, , and . Due to the large uncertainty surrounding how ocean conditions would influence the survival of 2023 outmigrants, ’s alternative Coho Salmon forecast for Baker River wild indicator survival in the report ‘2024 Wild Coho Forecasts for Puget Sound, Washington Coast, and Lower Columbia’ relying on generalized additive model methodology was also incorporated into the final agreed upon forecast (Litz 2024).

Escapement Monitoring

Escapements to the Baker system are counted at the Baker River trap. Hatchery fish are distinguished by ad-clips. Wild fish returning to the Baker, including those that carry , are not ad-clipped.

Natural Coho Salmon escapement estimation efforts in the Skagit have a long and problematic history and are a textbook example of the challenges of estimating Coho Salmon escapements to large watersheds (Haymes 2008). An early effort at estimating a basin-total Coho Salmon escapement to this was a 1961 Washington Department of Fisheries (WDF, now Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, or WDFW) mark-recapture (M/R) escapement study. This study focused on deriving a Pink Salmon escapement estimate for that year, but also tagged returning adult Coho Salmon to develop a Coho Salmon escapement estimate from spawning ground tag recoveries (Stockley 1963). The Coho Salmon escapement estimate derived from this study (116,726) was confounded by low numbers of tagged Coho Salmon adults (289), limited tag recovery effort during the Coho Salmon spawning season, low numbers of tags recovered, and poor distribution of the tag recoveries (68 tags, of which 60 came from the Baker Lake adult trap, a drainage which accounts for a small fraction of the total natural Coho Salmon escapement to this ).

A more serious attempt to directly estimate natural Coho escapements in the northern Puget Sound river basins was made in 1976 and 1977 when two major M/R escapement studies were conducted to estimate the Coho and Chum Salmon escapements to these rivers (Eames et al. 1983). The results of these studies provided the information needed for implementation of a Base-Year Index escapement estimation approach for the rivers in the Puget Sound region. The Base-Year Index escapement estimation approach was selected by the Washington Department of Fisheries (WDF) for annual estimation of Chum, Pink, and Coho Salmon escapements for these river basins because the method utilized visual spawning survey observations in lieu of expensive annual M/R studies.

However, questions soon arose about the accuracy of escapement estimates produced by the index-base year approach. A new M/R escapement study for the Skagit River was attempted by the treaty tribes in 1984 to generate a comparative escapement estimate, but an inadequate number of Coho Salmon were tagged to develop an estimate (Hayman and Beamer 1987). An alternative approach was also examined for the 1984 escapement using the ratio of wild to hatchery-origin Coho Salmon observed in the lower river test fisheries multiplied by the hatchery return to Marblemount Hatchery to estimate the wild escapement (a “reverse form” Petersen M/R-type estimate), which produced an estimate considerably higher than the Base-Year Index approach for that year, 100,000 vs. 35,600 (Hayman and Beamer 1987).

In the 1986 to 1990 time period, M/R-based natural Coho Salmon escapement estimation studies were again conducted in the Skagit Basin by the treaty tribes (Conrad et al. 1997, 1998a, 1998b, 1998c). Returning adult Coho Salmon were captured by beach seine in the lower river, jaw tagged, and the tags subsequently recovered in in-river test fisheries, hatchery, dam or tributary fish traps, or spawning ground surveys. Peterson and Darroch analyses were conducted on the jaw tag recoveries to estimate the escapement in each of these years and compared against Index Spawning Redd-based estimates, estimates based on the proportional contribution of hatchery origin Coho Salmon to the total escapement, and the traditional Base-Year Index method that were conducted in the same years. The M/R-based escapement estimates were up to 575% higher than the Base-Year Index estimates for the same time period. The estimates based on proportional contribution of hatchery Coho Salmon to the Skagit escapement conducted in the same time period were also considerably higher than the Base-Year Index approach. These results were also supported by the observed smolt production estimates in this same time period which indicated the escapement estimates generated by the Base-Year Index approach were too low to produce the observed juvenile production.

In the 1990s another escapement estimation approach was developed for Skagit Coho Salmon that uses the observed marine survival rate of tagged Baker Lake origin wild Coho Salmon for each year multiplied by the parent year Skagit basin smolt out-migration to produce an estimate of total adult recruitment, which is multiplied by (1 - the Baker Wild -recovery fishery ) to generate the escapement estimates (Seiler et al. 1995). These estimates were also typically considerably higher than the Base-Year Index estimates.

There are a number of reasons for the differences observed in the escapement estimates derived by the various methods discussed above. The Base-Year Index escapement formula for the Skagit has an inherent negative bias due to a decision made by WDF management biologists following completion of the 1977 mark-recapture escapement study to select a value approaching the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval from the M/R study results as the “base year” escapement estimate [WDF_1985]. The 29,200 value that was selected by the WDF managers is considerably lower than the M/R study point estimate of 43,000, which has a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 25,211–148,464. This decision was based on concern about the limited number of marks recovered in the M/R study, and the subsequent possibility of positive bias in the M/R-based estimate. Further uncertainty in the 1977 M/R estimate was highlighted by a re-analysis of the 1977 M/R study data by the Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission (NWIFC) that produced a point estimate of 110,758, with a 95% CI of 4,564–216,952 (Conrad n.d.).

There are uncertainties regarding the point estimates of escapement derived by the newer M/R-based estimates, due to the positive bias that can occur from missed mark recoveries at fish traps or spawning grounds, under-estimates of post-tagging mortality or tag loss, size selectivity in the terminal test fisheries, or other issues (Cousens et al. 1982). The accuracy of the “marine survival smolt outmigration”-based method is dependent upon the assumption that the Baker River natural-origin smolts survive and are exploited in fisheries at the same rate as the rest of the Skagit natural origin smolts, which may not be true. The veracity of the “test fishery hatchery/wild ratio”-based method is dependent upon an equal on the hatchery and wild populations. Due to unresolved uncertainties at this time regarding the accuracy of all the various available methods and associated estimates, the escapement estimates currently used by the co-managers for management purposes for the 1986-to-present period are an average of the annual results of the Base-Year Index and M/R (“Reverse Petersen”)-based estimates of escapement. Historical trends in escapement for the Skagit are provided in ToDo. Known distribution of spawners within the basin is depicted in Figure 4.46 (derived from WDFW’s Salmonid Stock Inventory (SaSI) located at: http://wdfw.wa.gov/conservation/fisheries/sasi/).

ToDo: create escapement figures (from post-season FRAM database) Skagit MU escapement estimates, return years x-x.

Figure 4.46: Spawner distribution of Coho Salmon in the Skagit River Basin.
Fishery Monitoring

A fundamental requirement of abundance-based Coho Salmon management under the is that all fishery impacts on individual be annually monitored with respect to both number of fish caught and CWTs. This requires basic reporting of total impacts by fishery and the capacity to estimate each fishery’s -specific impacts. Total fishing mortalities for each must be estimated to enable managers the ability to evaluate the annual relative to the -prescribed impact limits.

Assessments of total fishing mortalities for each must include both directed and incidentally-landed catch as well as estimates of non-landed mortalities. These estimates may be obtained through monitoring programs or, in some cases, generated through the use of algorithms built into the . Monitoring programs may involve test fisheries or data collected directly from fishers (e.g., through creel survey interviews, and other fisher-reported techniques, such as log books or fish-tickets). Estimation of non-landed fishing mortality requires annual estimates of encounter rates by fishery and gear.

Mark-selective fisheries have been intensively monitored to collect data to estimate key parameters characterizing MSF fisheries and their impacts on unmarked salmon. Sampling activities include dockside creel sampling, on-water observation, and a Voluntary Trip Report (VTR) system. Data collected from this sampling is used to estimate key parameters necessary to manage fisheries and integrate MSFs in the FRAM model. These parameters include: mark rate of the targeted Coho Salmon populations; total number of Coho Salmon harvested or released by mark-status, the coded-wire-tag stock composition of landed Coho Salmon, and total mortality of marked and unmarked Coho.

Management impacts for each are generally evaluated using the coast-wide system. This system manages information on the release and recovery of . The volume of tags recovered for a given will depend on tagging rates, marine survival rates, exploitation and escapement rates, and sampling rates in fisheries and escapements. A recent review of CWT methods (Pacific Salmon Commission Coded Wire Tag Workgroup 2008) recommends target sampling rates of 20% for the landed catch and 20% for escapements, with a minimum of 10 tags collected in each fishery or escapement stratum.

Post-season estimates are also generated using the Post-Season FRAM Model. Post-season estimates of catch and escapement are entered into the updated FRAM model with the same fishery regulation and effort package used for preseason modeling to generate post-season estimates.

Enhancement

There are numerous hatchery programs releasing Coho Salmon within the Skagit Basin. Since brood year 1983 to 2020, the largest ones include Marblemount, Baker Lake, Puget Sound Energy, and Swinomish Channel PD Hatchery programs. Over this time period approximately 690,000 Coho Salmon have been released annually on average. Marblemount Hatchery made up the majority (77%) of all releases, followed by Baker Lake Hatchery (9%), Puget Sound Energy (7%; ended with 2009 brood), and Swinomish Channel PD (2%; ended with 1990 brood). Prior to the implmentation of mass marking, total hatchery production within the of brood years 1983–1994 were highly variable, ranging from a high of three million fish released from brood year 1983 to a low of 380,000 fish from brood year 1988 (Figure 4.47) (Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission 1977). With the advent of technology to automatically remove adipose fins and/or insert using mobile “tagging trailers”, mass marking of hatchery fish was implemented for Coho Salmon in the mid-1990s (Selective Fishery Evaluation Committee 1999). Mass marking allows mark selective fisheries (MSF) for Coho Salmon in which marked hatchery fish can be retained and unmarked wild fish released, resulting in higher harvest rates on hatchery fish than wild fish. Mass marking was fully implemented for Coho Salmon from the Columbia River, Washington coast, and Puget Sound with the 1997 brood, including both mass marking (adipose fin clip) the vast majority of hatchery fish and use of select groups (paired clipped and unclipped fish with ) (Selective Fishery Evaluation Committee 1999). Double index tagging of hatchery fish at Marblemount Hatchery began with the 1994 brood and mass-marked fish were released beginning with brood year 1995. group releases and their associated tag codes are listed in Table 12.1. Hatchery production within the for brood years 1995 to brood year 2020 have averaged 500,000 annually, with a low of 252,000 in 2000 and a high of 795,000 in 2018. Of these, an average of 290,000 hatchery fish have been mass marked and released within the (Figure 4.47) (Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission 1977).

Figure 4.47: Hatchery production of Coho Salmon released within the Skagit , brood years 1983 through 2020.

4.2.4.3 Management Unit Performance

This section of the report includes summaries of forecast performance, abundances and abundance categories, and and associated impacting fisheries for the Skagit . Base period are also provided.

Forecast Evaluation

A comparison of preseason adult ocean age-3 recruit forecasts with post-season estimates derived from Backwards FRAM run reconstruction have been mixed, with some forecasts over estimating abundances and others underestimating it (Figure 4.48). During catch years 2004–2021, predicted cohort size (without natural mortality) ranged from a low of 26,799 (2007) to a high of 155,814 (2004), while post-season estimates ranged from 11,521 (2006) to 145,283 (2004). Accordingly, the difference between preseason and post-season estimates varied from -210% (2007) to +89% (2006) of the preseason estimates.

ToDo: SoPanel also wishes to see the numbers (pre, post, % diff from pre by year).

Figure 4.48: Comparison of preseason abundance predictions with the post-season estimates for the Skagit MU.
Fishery Mortality and Escapement

Base Period Exploitation Rates The base period for the FRAM defines the temporal and spatial distributions of salmon fishing mortalities from each . The current FRAM base period for Coho Salmon includes catch years 1986-1992. During this period, fishing effort, tagging, and fishery sampling of Coho Salmon was high, allowing relatively fine-scale discrimination between salmon distributions. Coded-wire-tag codes used during the base period for the Skagit are provided in the Appendix and average base period by individual fisheries are listed below.

ToDo: create table of the list of CWTs used in the base period. I think they are identified in the static file.

During the base period, Coho Salmon production from the Skagit contributed to US and Canadian marine sport and commercial fisheries in southern British Columbia, the northern Washington coast, Strait of Juan de Fuca, and inner Puget Sound. Terminal tribal and non-tribal set and drift-net Coho Salmon net fisheries occur in commercial fishery management area 8 and the lower Skagit River. Moderate-sized Coho Salmon sport fisheries occured in sport fishery management area 8.1, the mainstem Skagit River, and the Cascade River. The terminal fishery co-managers are WDFW, and the Upper Skagit, Sauk-Suiattle, and Swinomish Tribes.

Table 4.18: Skagit MU average annual (total) and time period specific ERs used in the current FRAM base period.
Fishery Jan-Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct-Dec Total
Brookings Sport - 0.00% - - - 0.00%
Brookings Troll 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% - 0.01%
Newport Sport 0.02% 0.05% 0.04% - - 0.11%
Newport Troll 0.04% 0.12% 0.04% 0.00% - 0.21%
Coos Bay Sport 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% - 0.05%
Coos Bay Troll 0.02% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% - 0.06%
Tillamook Sport 0.01% 0.03% 0.02% 0.00% - 0.06%
Tillamook Troll 0.01% 0.16% 0.06% 0.01% - 0.23%
Col. Rvr. Buoy 10 Sport - - 0.07% 0.01% - 0.08%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Sport 0.00% 0.06% 0.07% - - 0.13%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Troll 0.01% 0.09% 0.07% 0.08% 0.01% 0.25%
WA Area 2 Non-Treaty Troll 0.01% 0.04% 0.07% 0.01% - 0.13%
WA Area 2 Treaty Troll 0.01% 0.09% 0.06% 0.01% - 0.18%
WA Area 2 Sport 0.03% 0.32% 0.20% 0.02% - 0.56%
WA Area 3 Non-Treaty Troll 0.04% 0.01% 0.05% 0.04% - 0.14%
WA Area 3 Treaty Troll 0.06% 0.13% 0.18% 0.08% - 0.44%
WA Area 3 Sport 0.00% 0.04% 0.02% - - 0.06%
WA Area 4 Sport 0.01% 0.42% 0.44% 0.11% - 0.98%
WA Area 4/4B Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.04% 0.45% 0.10% 0.01% 0.59%
WA Area 4/4B Treaty Troll 0.18% 0.61% 0.78% 0.37% 0.05% 1.98%
WA Area 5-6-6C Troll 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.17% 0.00% 0.19%
Willapa Bay & FW Trib Net - - - - 0.01% 0.01%
Hoh R Net - - - - 0.00% 0.00%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.02% 0.07% 0.01% 0.09%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Treaty Net - 0.09% 0.38% 0.78% 0.51% 1.76%
WA Area 7-7A Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.09% 0.32% 0.08% 0.49%
WA Area 7-7A Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.10% 0.54% 0.16% 0.80%
WA Area 5 Sport (Sekiu) 0.24% 0.94% 1.79% 2.05% 0.19% 5.22%
WA Area 6 Sport (Port Angeles) 0.06% 0.30% 0.29% 0.85% 0.46% 1.95%
WA Area 7 Sport (San Juan Islands) 0.03% 0.06% 0.09% 0.15% 0.03% 0.35%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Non-Treaty Net - - 0.00% 0.16% 0.19% 0.35%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Treaty Net - - 0.02% 0.22% 0.26% 0.50%
WA Area 8 Non-Treaty Net (Skagit) - - 0.15% 0.62% 1.89% 2.66%
WA Area 8 Treaty Net (Skagit) - - 0.11% 1.79% 3.72% 5.61%
Skagit R Net - - - - 2.23% 2.23%
Skagit River Test Net - - - - 1.46% 1.46%
WA Area 8.1 Sport (Skagit Bay) - - 0.37% 0.04% 0.13% 0.54%
WA Area 9 Sport (Admirality Inlet) 0.18% 0.22% 0.29% 0.66% 0.29% 1.65%
Skagit R Sport - - - - 0.74% 0.74%
WA Area 8A Non-Treaty Net - - - 1.34% 1.50% 2.84%
WA Area 8A Treaty Net - - - 2.10% 2.24% 4.35%
WA Area 8.2 Sport (Everett) - - 0.07% 0.08% - 0.15%
WA Area 10 Sport (Seattle) 0.14% 0.09% 0.09% 0.10% 0.05% 0.46%
WA Area 10 Non-Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.73% 0.26% 0.99%
WA Area 10 Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.43% 0.15% 0.58%
WA Area 10E Non-Treaty Net (East Kitsap) - - - 0.00% - 0.00%
WA Area 10E Treaty Net (East Kitsap) - - - 0.00% - 0.00%
WA Area 10F-G Treaty Net (Lake Union) - - 0.04% - - 0.04%
WA Area 11 Sport (Tacoma) 0.04% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.07%
WA Area 11 Non-Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.18% 0.05% 0.23%
WA Area 11 Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.02% 0.01% 0.03%
WAArea 13 Marine Sport 0.01% - - 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%
Area 12 Marine Sport - - - - 0.00% 0.00%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Treaty Net - - - 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
Area 9/9A Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Area 9/9A Treaty Net (On Res) - - - 0.00% 0.03% 0.03%
Lower Fraser River Sport 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% - - 0.01%
Johnstone Strait Troll 0.03% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% - 0.17%
BC Northern Troll - 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% - 0.04%
BC North Central Troll - 0.09% 0.01% - - 0.10%
BC South Central Troll 0.12% 0.37% 0.07% 0.02% - 0.59%
NW Vancouver Island Troll 0.16% 3.07% 1.43% 0.57% - 5.23%
SW Vancouver Island Troll 0.76% 11.82% 8.56% 2.34% - 23.48%
Georgia Straits Troll 0.12% 0.51% 0.09% 0.04% - 0.77%
BC Juan de Fuca Troll - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% - 0.01%
BC Northern Net - 0.02% - - - 0.02%
BC Central Net - 0.01% 0.00% - - 0.02%
SW Vancouver Island Net 0.01% 0.00% - 0.22% 0.19% 0.42%
Johnstone Straits Net - 0.01% 0.18% 0.06% 0.01% 0.26%
Georgia Straits Net - - 0.02% - 0.00% 0.02%
Fraser R Gill Net - - 0.02% 0.02% - 0.05%
BC Juan de Fuca Net 0.01% 0.28% 5.01% 3.74% - 9.05%
Johnstone Strait Sport 0.02% 0.03% 0.02% - - 0.06%
BC Juan de Fuca Sport 0.57% 0.99% 0.45% 0.86% 0.23% 3.10%
West Coast Vanc Is Sport 0.02% 0.18% 0.09% 0.00% - 0.30%
North Georgia Straits Sport 1.27% 0.80% 0.53% 0.15% 0.00% 2.75%
South Georgia Straits Sport 0.64% 0.12% 0.14% 0.02% 0.04% 0.96%
SEAK Southwest Troll - 0.00% - - - 0.00%

ToDo: check this text and add summaries for MSF vs NSF too

In the most recent years assessed, the Skagit MU has been primarily harvested by Skagit River Net (median = 14% ER) and Skagit River Sport (8% ER) fisheries, both terminal area fisheries, with the remainder of the fisheries impacting this MU at an average of less than 4% per year.

ToDo: add (or call) the fishery figure for Skagit (fishery on y-axis and ER% on x axis averaged over a set number of years - I belive they are already created!)

Figure 4.49: Post-season estimates of fishery mortality for the Skagit by mark-selective (MSF) and non-selective (NS) fisheries over catch years 1998 through 2021. These estimates are combined US and Canadian harvest impacts.

Total have generally declined, averaging 59% between 1986 and 1995 then gradually falling to an extended period of low (26%) during 1998–2004 (Table 5 1; Figure 4 2). have increased somewhat since 2005, averaging 36% during 2005–2011. Up until 1997 the by Canadian fishers averaged 36%, but has since declined to an average of less than 1.5%. A comparison of by major fisheries during the base period and the most recent five years (2006–2010) is provided in Figure 5 1, while by major fisheries by year since 1986 are listed in Appendix D. Individual fishery management areas within Washington State are depicted in Figure Figure 1.4.

Table 4.19: Historical summary of annual total abundance (January age-3 without natural mortality), adult escapement, marine survival (Baker River Wild), and (ER) of the Skagit Management Unit; since 2004.
catch_year abundance marine_survival escapement
ER
Canada SUS
2004 169,157 9.8% 138,815 0.8% 17.2%
2005 52,362 6.4% 33,058 1.6% 35.3%
2006 11,518 1.1% 7,702 1.8% 31.3%
2007 84,423 8.6% 53,105 2.6% 34.5%
2008 35,458 4.5% 24,095 1.2% 30.9%
2009 87,600 12.3% 60,775 1.7% 28.9%
2010 64,581 3.4% 34,015 0.9% 46.5%
2011 78,116 4.1% 43,918 3.1% 40.6%
2012 139,009 8.3% 92,683 2.8% 30.5%
2013 150,661 6.6% 85,752 4.1% 39.0%
2014 51,696 5.2% 24,816 6.0% 46.0%
2015 15,512 1.3% 5,793 5.7% 56.9%
2016 44,736 5.9% 35,821 1.6% 18.3%
2017 22,278 5.6% 20,182 2.2% 7.2%
2018 36,911 9.7% 19,044 3.8% 44.6%
2019 27,499 6.7% 14,244 5.2% 43.0%
2020 41,468 6.0% 23,806 2.4% 40.2%
2021 111,989 13.2% 75,532 2.6% 30.0%
2022 124,042 12.8% 92,298 3.1% 22.5%
2023 NA 11.5% NA NA NA
2024 NA NA NA NA NA
Figure 4.50: Total exploitation rate (A) and escapement (B) of Skagit MU by country, catch years 1986 through 2022. Dashed line indicates escapement goal for the Skagit MU (30,000 individuals).
Historical Overview of Status of Management Unit

Abundances and Escapement, and Harvest Estimated total abundance and escapement in the Skagit has been quite variable during 2004–2021, with a downward trend in total abundance and in escapement during this period (Figure 4.51). Total abundance has averaged approximately 68,000 annually, and varied from a low of 11,518 fish (2006) to a high of 169,157 fish (2004) and has exceeded the Abundant category threshold of > 62,500 fish in 8 of 18 years between 2004 and 2021. During this time period, abundance has fallen below the critical threshold of 22,858 fish in of these years. Annual estimated escapement has averaged 43,786 during 2004 through 2021, with a low of 5,793 fish (2015) and a high of 138,815 (2004).

Harvest of Skagit MU has also varied from year to year, and has declined slightly over this time period. Less than 50,000 fish have been harvested annually in all but one of the years (2013) and most of the harvest has been in non-selective fisheries.

Figure 4.51: Skagit post-season estimates of ocean age-3 abundances, escapement, and harvest for catch years 2004 through 2021. The graphs include dashed trend lines and the vertical dotted lines highlight catch year 2010)
Figure 4.52: Skagit pre- and post-season abundance status for catch years 2004 through 2021
Table 4.20: Preseason and post-season abundance estimates for Skagit from 2004 onwards.
catch_year abund_preseason abund_postseason
2004 156,648.0 169,157.3
2005 62,122.2 52,362.3
2006 107,112.0 11,518.2
2007 26,935.9 84,422.8
2008 62,022.3 35,457.7
2009 33,559.5 87,600.3
2010 96,368.1 64,580.7
2011 138,755.9 78,115.7
2012 48,528.1 139,008.7
2013 137,868.9 150,661.2
2014 113,145.6 51,696.0
2015 122,122.0 15,511.6
2016 8,928.4 44,735.8
2017 11,195.4 22,278.3
2018 59,449.2 36,910.9
2019 58,238.1 27,499.0
2020 31,114.7 41,468.5
2021 58,820.8 111,989.0
2022 80,809.8 124,041.9
2023 43,406.6 NA
2024 63,837.1 NA

4.2.5 Stillaguamish

This description was prepared by U.S. members of the Coho Technical Committee.

4.2.5.1 Biological and Geographic Description

The Stillaguamish is one of the US Inside (refer to figure of inside MUs) and consists of the Stillaguamish River and its major tributaries, the North and South Forks (Figure x). Coho Salmon make use of all available habitat within the watershed not constrained by barriers to migration. The is made up of a single stock (Stillaguamish Coho Salmon), managed for natural production and for the purpose of achieving a desired spawning escapement objective. Stillaguamish River Coho Salmon belong to the larger Puget Sound/Strait of Georgia Coho Salmon evolutionarily significant unit [ESU; Weitkamp et al. (1995)]. This ESU is currently a species of concern under the US Endangered Species Act (NOAA Fisheries 2009).

The Stillaguamish River basin drains the north-central Cascade Mountains, flowing westward and entering Puget Sound at Port Susan, near the town of Stanwood. The basin is 685 mi2 (1774 km2) in area, with 975 linear miles (1,569 km) of mainstem and tributary habitat (Nelson et al. 1997). The North Fork Stillaguamish sub-basin has the highest quality Coho Salmon spawning and rearing habitat in the . The South Fork Stillaguamish basin is characterized by higher gradient habitat with lower average water temperatures that is less suitable for optimal Coho Salmon production, particularly upstream of approximately river mile 25 (KM 40), near the town of Jordan. The two forks unite at the city of Arlington in northwestern Snohomish County. The combined stream flows west, entering the north end of Port Susan, an arm of Puget Sound, approximately 10 miles (16 km) west of Arlington. The North and South Fork Stillaguamish mainstems have two periods of peak flow, first during winter rain and snowmelt events, and the second during peak snow runoff in spring and early summer. The smaller tributaries are largely rain-fed, and have most peak flow events during the winter season.

Recreational, environmental conservation, and commercial forest activities are prevalent in the mid and upper basin. The lower and mid-basin areas have significant habitat impacts from agricultural and residential/commercial development in the floodplain and surrounding uplands, and flood control activities. Residential developments and agricultural lands rim the Port Susan estuary.

There are no major dams or other large man-made fish passage impediments located in the . Granite Falls on the South Fork Stillaguamish River was considered to be a natural migration block to all anadromous salmonids except summer steelhead (C. Kraemer, WDFW retired, personal communication). In 1956, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) constructed a fish ladder at the falls to allow consistent anadromous salmonid access to the upper South Fork (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife 2001).

4.2.5.2 Management Framework

Objectives

Under the Comprehensive Coho Management Plan (Comprehensive Coho Workgroup 1998), Stillaguamish River wild Coho Salmon is the primary (key) , and off-station production is a secondary . Under this plan, primary are controlling units in the sense that predefined management actions will be undertaken under specified abundance conditions, auxiliary are those managed to meet or exceed a minimum escapement, and secondary units are passively managed in mixed stock fisheries.

The Stillaguamish consists of just one stock, managed for natural production and for the purpose of achieving a desired spawning escapement objective (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2011). Stillaguamish Coho Salmon are a primary for Puget Sound under the . Other primary in this region are eastern Juan de Fuca, Hood Canal, Skagit, Snohomish, and South Puget Sound (hatchery) Coho Salmon (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2011). The ’s conservation objectives for these are based on the Puget Sound Salmon Management Plan, which defines management objectives and long-term goals for these stocks as developed by representatives from Federal, state, and tribal agencies. Conservation objectives for specific stocks are based on either maximum sustainable production for stocks managed primarily for natural production or on hatchery escapement needs for stocks managed for artificial production. The original conservation objectives were developed by a State/Tribal Management Plan Development Team following the Boldt Decision (384 F. Supp. 312 [W.D. Wash. 1974]) with the goal for natural spawning stocks defined as “the adult spawning population that will, on the average, maximize biomass of juvenile outmigrants subsequent to incubation and freshwater rearing under average environmental conditions.” Assessments of the quantity and quality of rearing habitat and the number of adult spawners required to fully seed the habitat were used to develop the management objectives. Some objectives have subsequently been modified by the US District Court Fisheries Advisory Board and the WDFW/Tribal Technical Committee. However, annual natural management objectives may vary from the Fishery Management Plan (FMP) conservation objectives if agreed to by WDFW and the treaty Indian tribes under the provisions of US versus Washington (384 F. Supp. 312 [W.D. Wash. 1974]) and subsequent US District Court orders.

In 2009, the adopted annual management objectives for Puget Sound Coho Salmon as recommended by WDFW and tribal co-managers under provisions of US versus Washington. The annual objectives were based on the categorical status and associated maximum limits. The formally adopted management objectives for Puget Sound Coho Salmon which were consistent with objectives in November 2009. The current / ceilings for the Stillaguamish natural Coho Salmon population are provided in the table below. The current corresponding ocean abundance breakpoints are 20,000 and 9,385 (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2012). Prior to adoption of -based management for this in domestic and international management processes, natural Stillaguamish River origin Coho Salmon were managed for a fixed escapement goal of 17,000. This goal was derived from a freshwater juvenile carrying capacity model (Zillges 1977).

Table 4.21: Current Stillaguamish ocean abundance reference breakpoints and maximum total by and status categories.
Status(/) Ocean Abundance
Reference Breakpoint
Total Exploitation Rate
Low/Critical < 9,386 Up to 20%
Moderate/Low 9,386 – 20,000 21% – 35%
Abundant/Normal > 20,000 36% – 60%
Stock Assessment
Indicator Stocks

Hatchery and wild coded-wire tagging programs have been limited within the Stillaguamish basin. A smolt trapping study conducted by the Stillaguamish Tribe on brood years 1984–87, where approximately 47,000 Coho Salmon smolts were captured, clipped and tagged, and released annually, is the only source of wild tagging data from the Stillaguamish Watershed. Highly variable numbers of coded-wire-tagged and ad-clipped fish have been released from Harvey Creek which still operates, and Jim Creek and North Fork Hatcheries that have been discontinued. On average, 57,000 coded-wire-tagged fish have been released annually from Harvey Creek when the program has been implemented. Since 1986, this hatchery has reported releases for 20 broods, however, tagged fish have been released for only 8 of these brood years. The North Fork Hatchery released Coho Salmon smolts in 10 years during the period of 1988 to 2011; however, tagged fish were released for only BYs 2009 through 2011. Due to a lack of consistent tagging programs within the , analysts have used the following two indicator stocks releases in the Snohomish as surrogates in the development of the FRAM base period and subsequent -based analyses: Bernie Gobin Hatchery (Tulalip Creek) and Wallace River Hatchery (Skykomish) (CoTC 2011). Wallace River fish have been double index tagged starting with brood year 1996.

add text for recoveries? Make sure to include that this could include clipped and unclipped fish

Figure 4.53: Number of wild fish caught, tagged, and released by clip status, within the Stillaguamish MU over brood years 1983 through 2020.
Figure 4.54: Total number of coded-wire-tagged hatchery coho Salmon released, by clip status, within the Stillaguamish MU for brood years 1983 through 2020.
Forecast Methods

Each year, a preseason abundance forecast of age-3 ocean recruits for Stillaguamish Coho Salmon is developed jointly by the Stillaguamish and Tulalip Tribes and WDFW by February. These annual forecasts are described in the ’s Preseason Forecast I document each February [Pacific Fishery Management Council (2012); www.pcouncil.org]. This is part of a larger WDFW-tribal effort to develop forecasts of wild Coho Salmon run size for all primary and most secondary in Puget Sound and the Washington coast (Seiler et al. 1995; Zimmerman 2011). These forecasts rely on estimates of wild Coho Salmon production (i.e., smolts) paired with estimates of marine survival. Wild Coho Salmon production estimates for each of the primary and secondary in Puget Sound were derived from results of juvenile trapping studies conducted in the Skagit, Stillaguamish, Snohomish, Green, Nisqually, and Deschutes rivers, as well as in tributaries to Lake Washington and Hood Canal. Analysis of these long-term data sets have demonstrated that wild Coho Salmon smolt production is limited by a combination of factors including seeding levels (i.e., escapement), environmental effects (flows, marine derived nutrients), and habitat degradation (Zimmerman 2011).

WDFW’s Wild Salmon Production Evaluation (WSPE) Unit measured Coho Salmon production of brood years 1979 through 1981 in the Stillaguamish River. During these years, the watershed was considered to be adequately seeded. A juvenile trap was operated upstream of river mile 16 between 1981 and 1983. Basin-wide production was the sum of estimated production above the trap and expanded production below the trap. The average production estimate above the trap was 284,000 smolts (Seiler et al. 1984), 42.9% of the predicted production potential for this portion of the watershed (Zillges 1977). Expanded production below the trap (86,000 smolts) was calculated by applying the ratio of measured to potential production above the trap (42.9%) to the potential production below the trap (201,520 smolts).

Estimated smolt production has been quite consistent in the Stillaguamish , averaging 355,000 smolts annually during 1995 to 2022. Smolt production has varied from a low of 115,000 in 2016 to a high of 555,000 in 2010 (Table 4 1).

Figure 4.55: Estimated number of Stillaguamish MU wild Coho Salmon smolts outmigrants, years 1990 through 2022

Marine survival rates of wild Coho Salmon stocks have been measured using wild indicator stocks in four geographic regions of Puget Sound: Big Beef Creek, Deschutes River, South Fork Skykomish River, and Baker River (Zimmerman 2011). These populations are assumed to be representative of the different Puget Sound regions. Marine survival rates for wild Stillaguamish Coho Salmon are estimated from the S.F. Skykomish in the Snohomish . Marine survival for this indicator population has averaged 12.7% during return years 1986-2011, with a high of 23.6% in 1994 and a low of 3.6% in 2006.

Figure 4.56: Estimated marine survival rates for Skykomish River Coho Salmon, (data provided by M. Litz, WDFW).

Most Recent Abundance Forecast and Methods

This information is available in the ’s 2024 Preseason Report 1 (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2024c) and (Litz 2024).

The 2024 Stillaguamish abundance forecast is 30,809, resulting in a classification of the stock abundance as “Abundant” under the 2019 and “Normal” under the . This results in an allowable total of no more than 50%.

Regressing annual Coho Salmon smolt trap catch per unit of effort (CPUE; total fish/total hours fished) against terminal run size one year later generates a relationship that could be used to predict Stillaguamish adult returns. However, due to the high variability in marine survival, Coho Salmon smolt numbers at the trap are not a very precise predictor of adult returns one year later. Therefore, the SF Skykomish River marine survival estimate for each brood was used to correct the Stillaguamish smolt trap data, which tightened the regression relationship with the terminal run. The natural Coho Salmon marine survival rate from smolt to adult is estimated at 5.7%, based on recent 5-year SF Skykomish River marine survival estimates.

Escapement Monitoring

The method used for estimating natural Coho Salmon escapements in this is the Base-Year Index approach (Haymes 2008). This approach is used to estimate annual Coho Salmon escapements to most of the major river basins and geographically associated aggregations of smaller independent tributaries in the Puget Sound region, exclusive of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The Base-Year Index approach was adopted for estimating Coho Salmon escapements in this region because the distribution of Coho Salmon spawners is geographically broad in each river basin. Because of this, an approach is required that is not dependent on the direct census of a large portion of the total spawning habitat. In addition, assessments of serial live and/or dead fish observations are needed instead of spawning redd enumeration because the multiple species overlap and/or high spawning densities often make Coho Salmon redd enumeration impractical.

The Base-Year Index method allows expansion of an annual index of abundance developed from serial field counts of live or dead salmon, collected in a relatively small fraction of the total freshwater habitat, to an estimate of basin or region-total escapement. A series of point counts of live Coho Salmon abundance are made in several fixed-location survey reaches, distributed throughout each major river basin or region. At the end of the spawning season an abundance index is developed for each index survey reach using the “area under the curve” (AUC) approach (Ames 1984; Irvine et al. 1993). The sum of the individual abundance index values from an individual escapement estimation unit (usually a river basin) are then multiplied by a historical “base year” basin-total escapement estimate developed from a mark-recapture study. The resulting value is divided by the base year index of abundance calculated for the same survey reaches that were monitored in the current escapement year, to produce the basin-total escapement estimate for the current year. In the Stillaguamish River basin, Coho Salmon escapement is estimated from 17 index reaches covering 10.7 miles (17.2 km) (Haymes 2008). Historical trends in escapement for the Stillaguamish are provided in ToDo. Known distribution of spawners within the basin is depicted in Figure 4.57 (derived from WDFW’s Salmonid Stock Inventory (SaSI) located at: http://wdfw.wa.gov/conservation/fisheries/sasi/).

ToDo: create escapement figures (from post-season FRAM database) Stillaguamish MU escapement estimates, return years x-x.

Figure 4.57: Spawner distribution of Coho Salmon in the Stillaguamish River Basin.
Fishery Monitoring (canned language across all US MUs. Shall we move this?)

A fundamental requirement of abundance-based Coho Salmon management under the is that all fishery impacts on individual be annually monitored with respect to both number of fish caught and . This requires basic reporting of total impacts by fishery and the capacity to estimate each fishery’s -specific impacts. Total fishing mortalities for each must be estimated to enable managers the ability to evaluate the annual relative to the -prescribed impact limits. Assessments of total fishing mortalities for each must include both directed and incidentally-landed catch as well as estimates of non-landed mortalities. These estimates may be obtained through monitoring programs or, in some cases, generated through the use of algorithms built into the Fisheries Regulation Assessment Model (FRAM). Monitoring programs may involve test fisheries or data collected directly from fishers (e.g., through creel survey interviews, and other fisher-reported techniques, such as log books or fish-tickets). Estimation of non-landed fishing mortality requires annual estimates of encounter rates by fishery and gear.

Management-Unit-specific impacts are generally evaluated using the coast-wide system. This system manages information on the release and recovery of coded-wire tags. The volume of tags recovered for a given will depend on tagging rates, marine survival rates, exploitation and escapement rates, and sampling rates in fisheries and escapements. A recent review of methods (Pacific Salmon Commission Coded Wire Tag Workgroup 2008) recommends target sampling rates of 20% for the landed catch and 20% for escapements, with a minimum of 10 tags collected in each fishery or escapement stratum.

Mark selective fisheries have been intensively monitored to collect data to estimate key parameters characterizing MSF fisheries and their impacts on unmarked salmon. Sampling activities include dockside creel sampling, on-water observation, and a Voluntary Trip Report (VTR) system. Data collected from this sampling is used to estimate key parameters necessary to manage fisheries and integrate MSFs in FRAM. These parameters include the following:

  • mark rate of the targeted Coho Salmon populations;
  • total number of Coho Salmon harvested by mark-status, including an estimate of angler compliance rate with Coho Salmon MSF regulations;
  • total number of Coho Salmon released (by size/mark-status);
  • the coded-wire tag-stock composition of landed Coho Salmon; and
  • total mortality of marked and unmarked Coho Salmon
    Estimates of observed encounter rates or mortality can then be compared to preseason FRAM projections [WDFW_2011].

Post-season estimates are also generated using the Post-Season FRAM Model. Post-season estimates of catch and escapement are entered into the updated FRAM model with the same fishery regulation and effort package used for preseason modeling to generate post-season estimates.

Enhancement

Hatchery production within the Stillaguamish is very small compared to other US . Approximately 39,000 hatchery fish have been released within the basin annually since brood year 1985 (Figure 4.58). Hatchery releases have also been highly variable, from a high of 183,000 fish released from brood year 2007 to a low of 1,000 fish from brood year 2012 (Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission 1977). Hatchery production of Coho Salmon in the Stillaguamish is currently limited to a very small WDFW Coop program and the Harvey Creek Hatchery which is operated by the Stillaguamish Tribe, is located 2 miles upstream of the mouth of Harvey/Armstrong Creek, which is located 15.3 miles upstream of the mouth of the Stillaguamish main stem. Harvey Creek releases have averaged 74,000 annually since 2007 when production was raised considerably from previous years.

Two programs are no longer in operation, but contributed to hatchery production over the period of brood years 1983 to 2020. One is the the North Fork/Johnson Creek Hatchery, which was operated by the Stillaguamish Tribe and is located approximately 2.5 miles upstream of the mouth of Johnson Creek located on the North Fork Stillaguamish (Stillaguamish Tribe 2004) (Figure x). The other discontinued Coho Salmon program is the US Navy’s hatchery at Jim Creek. In the past the Stillaguamish Tribe propagated Coho Salmon at the Tribe’s Harvey Creek and Johnson Creek Hatcheries and at a satellite facility at the Navy’s Jim Creek Hatchery. Wild broodstock and the progeny of wild broodstock were captured at the respective sites. Small to moderate numbers of juvenile Coho Salmon produced from a wild broodstock collection program were released annually into selected lower Stillaguamish River tributaries for enhancement purposes since the 1993 brood year. Fish were collected with stick weirs and other approaches from lower river tributaries, then spawned and reared at Jim Creek Hatchery, a small incubation and rearing facility located on a lower river tributary and operated by the Stillaguamish Tribe.

The Stillaguamish Coho Salmon program is an integrated harvest/recovery program with the following goals: 1) providing for a limited selective terminal area fishery for tribal members during years when natural escapement requirements would not normally allow for a tribal fishery; and 2) to provide for a natural origin broodstock program for restoration activities within the basin (Stillaguamish Tribe 2004).

With the advent of technology to automatically remove adipose fins and/or insert using mobile “tagging trailers”, mass marking of hatchery fish was implemented for Coho Salmon in the mid-1990s (Selective Fishery Evaluation Committee 1999). Mass marking allows mark selective fisheries (MSFs) for Coho Salmon in which marked hatchery fish can be retained and unmarked wild fish released, resulting in higher harvest rates on hatchery fish than wild fish. Mass marking was implemented for Coho Salmon from the Columbia River, Washington Coast, and Puget Sound beginning with the 1994 brood, including both mass marking (adipose fin clip) the vast majority of hatchery fish and the use of select groups (unclipped fish with ) (Selective Fishery Evaluation Committee 1999). Mass marking of hatchery fish within the Stillaguamish began with the 2004 brood, but has been limited to an average of 8,000 fish annually (Figure 4.58) (Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission 1977). There are no programs within the Stillaguamish ; however, groups from the Snohomish are used as a surrogate and are listed in (Table 12.2).

Figure 4.58: Hatchery production of Coho Salmon released within the Stillaguamish , brood years 1983 through 2020.

4.2.5.3 Management Performance

Total by the US and Canada and escapement for the Stillaguamish for catch years 1986 to ????. estimates from 1986 to 1997 are based on recoveries and were generated using the Mixed-Stock Model and cohort reconstruction process. A post-season FRAM assessment technique was used to estimate ERs beginning with catch year 1998.

Forecast Evaluation

The forecasts of Stillaguamish Coho Salmon abundance have generally been higher than postseason estimates. During catch years 2004–2010, predicted cohort size (without natural mortality) ranged from a low of 13,400 (2009) to a high of 69,200 (2007) while post-season estimates ranged from 10,808 (2006) to 73,935 (2004) (CoTC 2011) (Table 4 2). Accordingly, the difference between preseason forecasts and post-season estimates varied from -130% (2009) to +77% (2006).

ToDo: SoPanel also wishes to see the numbers (pre, post, % diff from pre by year).

Figure 4.59: Comparison of preseason abundance predictions with the post-season estimates for the Stillaguamish MU.
Fishery Mortality and Escapement

The base period for the Fisheries Regulation Assessment Model (FRAM) defines the temporal and spatial distributions of salmon fishing mortalities from each . The current FRAM base period for Coho Salmon includes catch years 1986–1992. During this period, fishing effort, tagging, and fishery sampling of Coho Salmon was high, allowing relatively fine-scale discrimination between salmon distributions. Coded-wire-tag codes used during the base period for the Stillaguamish are provided in the Appendix and average base period by individual fisheries are provided ToDo.

ToDo: create table of the list of CWTs used in the base period. I think they are identified in the static file.

During the base period, Coho Salmon production from the Stillaguamish contributed to US and Canadian marine sport and commercial fisheries in southern BC, the northern Washington coast, Strait of Juan de Fuca, and inner Puget Sound (Haymes 2008). Terminal tribal and non-tribal set and drift-net Coho Salmon net fisheries occur in commercial Marine Management Areas (MMAs) 8A (Port Susan/Possession Sound) and 8D (Tulalip Bay). No directed commercial salmon fisheries typically occur in the Stillaguamish River, though there may periodically be tribal ceremonial and subsistence fisheries. A substantial marine sport fishery occurs in sport MMA 8.2 (Port Susan/Possession Sound), and small freshwater Coho Salmon sport fishery occurs in the Stillaguamish River basin. The terminal fishery co-managers are WDFW, and the Tulalip and Stillaguamish Tribes.

Table 4.22: Stillaguamish MU average annual (total) and time period specific ERs used in the current FRAM base period.
Fishery Jan-Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct-Dec Total
KMZ Sport 0.00% - - - - 0.00%
Brookings Troll 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% - - 0.01%
Newport Sport 0.02% 0.06% 0.04% - - 0.13%
Newport Troll 0.03% 0.16% 0.04% 0.00% - 0.23%
Coos Bay Sport 0.01% 0.03% 0.01% - - 0.05%
Coos Bay Troll 0.01% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% - 0.05%
Tillamook Sport 0.01% 0.04% 0.02% 0.01% - 0.07%
Tillamook Troll 0.01% 0.18% 0.04% 0.00% - 0.24%
Col. Rvr. Buoy 10 Sport - 0.03% 0.05% 0.00% - 0.08%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Sport 0.00% 0.08% 0.04% - - 0.12%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Troll 0.01% 0.11% 0.04% 0.01% - 0.16%
WA Area 2 Non-Treaty Troll 0.03% 0.04% 0.05% 0.00% - 0.12%
WA Area 2 Treaty Troll 0.03% 0.09% 0.04% 0.00% - 0.17%
WA Area 2 Sport 0.03% 0.26% 0.12% 0.05% - 0.46%
WA Area 3 Non-Treaty Troll 0.03% 0.00% 0.05% 0.04% - 0.11%
WA Area 3 Treaty Troll 0.04% 0.07% 0.16% 0.06% - 0.33%
WA Area 3 Sport 0.00% 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% - 0.07%
WA Area 4 Sport 0.02% 0.21% 0.22% 0.06% - 0.51%
WA Area 4/4B Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.02% 0.29% 0.07% - 0.39%
WA Area 4/4B Treaty Troll 0.08% 0.36% 0.51% 0.27% - 1.21%
WA Area 5-6-6C Troll 0.04% 0.02% 0.04% 0.05% 0.01% 0.18%
Queets R Net - - - 0.00% - 0.00%
Hoh R Net - - - - 0.00% 0.00%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.00% 0.06%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Treaty Net - 0.10% 0.34% 0.46% 0.29% 1.19%
WA Area 7-7A Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.02% 0.05% 0.00% 0.07%
WA Area 7-7A Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.02% 0.09% 0.01% 0.12%
WA Area 5 Sport (Sekiu) 0.15% 0.42% 0.87% 1.72% 0.28% 3.45%
WA Area 6 Sport (Port Angeles) 0.04% 0.12% 0.14% 0.57% 0.22% 1.08%
WA Area 7 Sport (San Juan Islands) 0.00% 0.01% - 0.04% 0.03% 0.08%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Non-Treaty Net - - 0.00% 0.02% 0.01% 0.03%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Treaty Net - - 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% 0.04%
WA Area 8 Non-Treaty Net (Skagit) - - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
WA Area 8 Treaty Net (Skagit) - - - 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%
WA Area 8.1 Sport (Skagit Bay) - - 0.04% - - 0.04%
WA Area 9 Sport (Admirality Inlet) 0.11% 0.08% 0.13% 0.73% 0.25% 1.30%
WA Area 8A Non-Treaty Net - - - 2.99% 5.42% 8.41%
WA Area 8A Treaty Net - - - 4.71% 8.08% 12.79%
WA Area 8D Non-Treaty Net (Tulalip Bay) - - - 0.26% 1.27% 1.53%
WA Area 8D Treaty Net (Tulalip Bay) - - - 1.98% 7.34% 9.33%
Stillaguamish R Net - - - - 13.60% 13.60%
WA Area 8.2 Sport (Everett) 0.01% - - 2.00% 0.97% 2.98%
Stillaguamish R Sport - - - - 0.49% 0.49%
WA Area 10 Sport (Seattle) 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.05% - 0.13%
WA Area 10 Non-Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.64% 0.28% 0.92%
WA Area 10 Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.38% 0.16% 0.54%
WA Area 10F-G Treaty Net (Lake Union) - - 0.02% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03%
WA Area 11 Sport (Tacoma) 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% - 0.03%
WA Area 11 Non-Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.19% 0.05% 0.24%
WA Area 11 Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.02% 0.01% 0.03%
WAArea 13 Marine Sport 0.00% - 0.01% - - 0.01%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Treaty Net - - - 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
Area 9/9A Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Area 9/9A Treaty Net (On Res) - - - 0.01% 0.05% 0.06%
Lower Fraser River Sport 0.00% 0.00% - - - 0.00%
Johnstone Strait Troll - 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% - 0.02%
BC Northern Troll - 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% - 0.03%
BC North Central Troll - 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% - 0.02%
BC South Central Troll 0.08% 0.35% 0.07% 0.02% - 0.52%
NW Vancouver Island Troll 0.23% 4.02% 1.43% 0.54% - 6.22%
SW Vancouver Island Troll 0.43% 9.37% 6.43% 1.28% - 17.52%
Georgia Straits Troll 0.01% 0.02% 0.00% 0.01% - 0.04%
BC Juan de Fuca Troll - 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% - 0.02%
BC Northern Net - 0.00% 0.00% - - 0.00%
BC Central Net - 0.02% - 0.00% - 0.02%
SW Vancouver Island Net 0.02% - - 0.15% 0.06% 0.23%
Johnstone Straits Net - - 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% 0.07%
Fraser R Gill Net - 0.00% 0.00% - - 0.00%
BC Juan de Fuca Net 0.01% 0.23% 2.80% 1.44% 0.07% 4.55%
Johnstone Strait Sport 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% - - 0.01%
BC Central Sport - 0.00% - - - 0.00%
BC Juan de Fuca Sport 0.14% 0.41% 0.18% 0.22% 0.05% 1.00%
West Coast Vanc Is Sport 0.02% 0.09% 0.07% 0.00% - 0.18%
North Georgia Straits Sport 0.08% 0.05% 0.01% 0.01% - 0.16%
South Georgia Straits Sport 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.01% - 0.06%
Figure 4.60: Post-season estimates of fishery mortality for the Stillaguamish by mark-selective (MSF) and non-selective (NS) fisheries over catch years 1998 through 2022. These estimates are combined US and Canadian harvest impacts.

Total have generally declined since 1986 having averaged 71% during 1986–1993, then gradually falling to an extended period of low (10%) during 2002–2004 (Table 4 3; Figure 4 1). have increased since 2004, averaging 23% during 2005–2009. Up until 1997 the by Canadian fishers averaged 26%, but has since declined to an average of less than 1.0% (Appendix D).

A comparison of by major fisheries during the base period and the most recent five years (2006–2010) is provided in Figure 5 1, while by major fisheries by year since 1986 are given in Appendix D. Individual fishery management areas within Washington State are depicted in Figure Figure 1.4.

Table 4.23: Historical summary of annual total abundance (January age-3 without natural mortality), adult escapement, marine survival (Skykomish), and (ER) of the Stillaguamish Management Unit; since 2004.
catch_year abundance marine_survival escapement
ER
Canada SUS
2004 66,035 16.6% 58,142 0.4% 11.6%
2005 30,687 9.6% 22,589 0.8% 25.5%
2006 10,804 3.6% 8,548 1.0% 19.8%
2007 51,708 11.8% 38,731 1.5% 23.6%
2008 16,874 3.7% 12,939 0.7% 22.6%
2009 30,871 14.9% 22,180 1.0% 27.2%
2010 16,753 3.5% 15,171 0.5% 9.0%
2011 61,324 16.2% 49,990 1.6% 16.9%
2012 60,518 8.5% 45,155 1.5% 23.9%
2013 78,066 12.9% 60,386 2.0% 20.7%
2014 49,138 5.0% 35,827 2.6% 24.5%
2015 5,455 3.7% 2,915 2.9% 43.6%
2016 15,619 5.0% 13,048 0.8% 15.7%
2017 6,918 1.7% 6,100 1.2% 10.6%
2018 30,885 6.0% 23,937 2.4% 20.1%
2019 16,165 3.9% 12,887 3.4% 16.9%
2020 24,654 5.1% 21,555 1.6% 11.0%
2021 42,702 7.0% 38,176 1.6% 9.0%
2022 59,711 6.6% 53,820 1.8% 8.1%
2023 NA 18.2% NA NA NA
Figure 4.61: Total exploitation rate (A) and escapement (B) of Stillaguamish MU by country, catch years 1986 through 2022. Dashed line indicates escapement goal for the Stillaguamish MU (Need esc goal for Stilly 30,000 individuals).
Historical Overview of Status of Management Unit

ToDo: Need to add a summary here

Figure 4.62: Stillaguamish post-season estimates of ocean age-3 abundances, escapement, and harvest for catch years 2004 through 2022. The graphs include dashed trend lines and the vertical dotted lines highlight catch year 2010)
Figure 4.63: Stillaguamish pre- and post-season abundance status for catch years 2004 through 2021
Table 4.24: Preseason and post-season abundance estimates for Stillaguamish from 2004 onwards.
catch_year abund_preseason abund_postseason
2004 38,290.4 66,035.2
2005 57,116.9 30,686.6
2006 45,330.5 10,804.1
2007 69,683.6 51,708.4
2008 34,639.0 16,873.9
2009 13,465.3 30,871.0
2010 26,060.0 16,753.4
2011 66,919.4 61,323.6
2012 47,746.5 60,517.7
2013 33,241.7 78,066.0
2014 32,659.0 49,138.2
2015 31,452.9 5,454.5
2016 2,775.5 15,618.8
2017 7,638.2 6,917.7
2018 19,041.5 30,884.9
2019 23,918.4 16,164.8
2020 19,531.6 24,653.7
2021 26,985.6 42,702.4
2022 25,052.9 59,710.6
2023 30,412.0 NA
2024 31,029.2 NA

4.2.6 Snohomish

This description was prepared by U.S. members of the Coho Technical Committee.

4.2.6.1 Biological and Geographic Description

The Snohomish is one of the US Inside and includes all accessible waters of the Snohomish River Basin, Washington State, including its major tributaries, the Skykomish and Snoqualmie rivers.

The Snohomish River basin is 1,780 mi2 [4,610 km2] in size, draining the Cascade Mountains to the east of Everett and Seattle, and entering Puget Sound at Everett. The has extensive moderate to high quality juvenile Coho Salmon spawning and rearing habitat, due the large number of low gradient tributaries. The main tributaries directly draining the Cascades tend to have two periods of peak flow, first during winter flood events and the second during peak snow runoff in spring and early summer. The smaller tributaries are largely rain-fed, and have peak flows during the winter rain season.

Recreational, environmental conservation, and commercial forest activities are prevalent in the mid and upper basin. The lower and mid-basin areas have significant habitat impacts from agricultural and residential/commercial development in the floodplain and surrounding uplands, and flood control activities. Major urban centers in the include Everett, Snohomish, and Monroe, with numerous smaller residentially oriented communities located through the basin.

There is only one major dam located in the , Spada Reservoir at RM 16.2 [KM 26] on Sultan River, with a diversion dam located at RM 9.7 [KM 16] on the Sultan River that blocks upstream passage of anadromous fish past this point. A significant increase in available natural Coho Salmon production habitat in the Snohomish occurred in 1958 when the Sunset Falls Fishway became operational and 362 mi2 [938 km2] of habitat above a large natural waterfall system was opened to anadromous salmonid use (WDF 1958).

All wild Coho Salmon that originate from the Snohomish basin constitute a single and are managed as a single stock. Snohomish River Coho Salmon belong to the larger Puget Sound/Strait of Georgia Coho Salmon evolutionarily significant unit (ESU; (Weitkamp et al. 1995)). This ESU is currently a species of concern under the US Endangered Species Act (NOAA Fisheries 2009).

4.2.6.2 Management Framework

Objectives

Under the Comprehensive Coho Salmon Management Plan (Comprehensive Coho Workgroup 1998), Snohomish River wild Coho Salmon is the primary (key) and hatchery production is an auxiliary (Comprehensive Coho Workgroup 1998). Under this plan, primary are controlling units in the sense that predefined management actions that will be undertaken under specified abundance conditions, auxiliary are those managed to meet or exceed a minimum escapement, and secondary units are passively managed in mixed stock fisheries. Therefore, Snohomish River Coho Salmon are managed for natural (wild) production.

Snohomish Coho Salmon are a primary for Puget Sound under the (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2011). Other primary in this region are eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca, Hood Canal, Skagit, Stillaguamish, and South Puget Sound (hatchery) Coho Salmon (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2011). The ’s conservation objectives for these are based on the Puget Sound Salmon Management Plan, which includes management objectives and long-term goals for these stocks as developed by representatives from federal, state, and tribal agencies.

In Puget Sound, conservation objectives for specific stocks are based on either maximum sustainable production for stocks managed primarily for natural production or on hatchery escapement needs for stocks managed for artificial production. The original conservation objectives were developed by a State/Tribal Management Plan Development Team following the Boldt Decision (384 F. Supp. 312 [W.D. Wash. 1974]) with the goal for natural spawning stocks defined as “the adult spawning population that will, on the average, maximize biomass of juvenile outmigrants subsequent to incubation and freshwater rearing under average environmental conditions”. The method used to develop the objectives was based on assessment of the quantity and quality of rearing habitat and the number of adult spawners required to fully seed the habitat. Some objectives have subsequently been modified by the US District Court Fisheries Advisory Board and later determinations of the WDFW/Tribal Technical Committee. However, annual natural management objectives may vary from the fisheries management plan (FMP) conservation objectives if agreed to by WDFW and the treaty Indian tribes under the provisions of US versus Washington (384 F. Supp. 312 [W.D. Wash. 1974]) and subsequent US District Court orders.

In 2009, the adopted annual management objectives for Puget Sound Coho Salmon as recommended by WDFW and tribal co-managers under provisions of US versus Washington. The annual objectives were based on the categorical status and associated maximum limits. The formally adopted management objectives for Puget Sound Coho Salmon in November 2009, which were consistent with objectives, and will replace the longstanding FMP spawning escapement objectives in 2010.

The current / ceilings for the Snohomish natural Coho Salmon population are provided here:

Table 4.25: Current Snohomish ocean abundance reference breakpoints and maximum total by and status categories.
Status(/) Ocean Abundance
Reference Breakpoint
Total Exploitation Rate
Low/Critical < 51,668 Up to 20%
Moderate/Low 51,668 – 125,000 21% – 40%
Abundant/Normal > 125,000 41% – 60%

Queets River natural Coho Salmon, Strait of Juan de Fuca natural Coho Salmon, and Snohomish River natural Coho Salmon were found to meet the criteria for being classified as overfished in the PFMC Review of 2017 Ocean Salmon Fisheries, released in February 2018. Snohomish natural Coho Salmon now meet the criteria for rebuilt status based on the most recent three-year geometric mean of escapement estimates (2019-2021) (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2023a).

Stock Assessment
Indicator Stocks

Like the Stillaguamish , the Snohomish primarily relies on the following two indicator stocks releases in the Snohomish : Bernie Gobin Hatchery (Tulalip Creek) and Wallace River Hatchery (Skykomish) (Joint Coho Technical Committee 2013). Approximately 45,000 coded wire tagged and clipped fish have been released from Wallace River Hatchery since brood year 1983. A double index tag program of 45,000 tagged and unclipped fish was implemented at this hatchery beginning with brood year 1996. Approximately 48,000 tagged fish have been released annually from Bernie Gobin Hatchery, where all broods but 1997 and 1998 were clipped and tagged. Wild stock coded-wire tagging programs have been limited within the basin. A smolt trapping study conducted by the Stillaguamish Tribe on brood years 1984–87 is the only source of wild tagging data from the Stillaguamish Watershed (Figure 4 4).

Is this still true???? –> There are no direct estimates of marine survival or exploitation for this due to the limited numbers of released from the enhancement projects, and lack of formal escapement accounting for the returning tagged Coho Salmon. Tagged hatchery and wild fish released in the Snohomish are used as surrogates for the Stillaguamish .

add text for recoveries? Make sure to include that this could include clipped and unclipped fish

Figure 4.64: Number of wild fish caught, tagged, and released by clip status, within the Snohomish MU over brood years 1983 through 2020.
Figure 4.65: Total number of coded-wire-tagged hatchery coho Salmon released, by clip status, within the Snohomish MU for brood years 1983 through 2020.
Forecast Methods

Since 1996, WDFW and tribal biologists have developed forecasts of wild Coho Salmon run size for all primary and most secondary in Puget Sound and the Washington coast (Zimmerman 2013). These annual forecasts are described in the ’s Preseason Forecast I document each February [e.g., Pacific Fishery Management Council (2013); www.pcouncil.org]. These forecasts rely on estimates of wild Coho Salmon production (i.e., smolts) paired with estimates of marine survival. Wild Coho Salmon production estimates for each of the primary and secondary in Puget Sound were derived from results of juvenile trapping studies conducted in the Skagit, Stillaguamish, Snohomish, Green, Nisqually, and Deschutes rivers as well as in tributaries to Lake Washington and Hood Canal. Analysis of these long-term data sets have demonstrated that wild Coho Salmon smolt production is limited by a combination of factors including seeding levels (i.e., escapement), environmental effects (flows, marine derived nutrients), and habitat degradation (Zimmerman 2012).

Estimates of wild Coho Salmon production in the Snohomish Basin are based on catch of wild Coho Salmon in a juvenile trapping program on the Skykomish River. Between 1978 and 1986, WDFW operated a juvenile trap below Sunset Falls on the South Fork Skykomish River (Zimmerman 2011). Coho Salmon production estimates were generated with a back-calculation method (Petersen-Chapman estimator). For a given brood year, the back-calculation applied the incidence of coded-wire tag returns to the Sunset Falls adult trap to the number of tagged Coho Salmon smolts released from the juvenile trap. The back-calculation method accounts for South Fork Skykomish Coho Salmon production above and below the trap.

Between 1978 and 1983, average production was 276,000 smolts (range = 212,000 to 354,000 smolts) and inter annual variation in smolt production was not correlated with spawner abundance. Between 1982 and 1984 (corresponding to the 1984 to 1986 outmigration), escapement was experimentally reduced in order to determine whether smolt production could be limited by lower escapements. For these three years, limited escapement (1,000 to 3,000 females) reduced Coho Salmon production to an average of 198,000 smolts. A basin-wide estimate for these years was derived by expanding average Coho Salmon production in the South Fork Skykomish by 20.7%, the portion of the Snohomish system’s drainage area represented by the South Fork Skykomish sub-basin. With this method, average Coho Salmon production for the Snohomish Basin is 1,333,000 smolts (Seiler 1996). This estimate was subsequently reduced to 1,000,000 smolts to account for the portions of the watershed that are not accessible to anadromous fish (i.e., 450 mi2 or 26%; Seiler 1999).

Estimated smolt production has averaged approximately 1.27 million smolts annually during 1995–2022. In more recent years, estimated smolt production has been quite consistent in the Snohomish , averaging approximately 1,100,000 smolts annually during 2000–2010 (Figure 4.66). Smolt production has varied from a low of 720,000 in 2008 to a high of 2,200,000 in 2014, exceeding 1 million smolts in 21 of the last 28 years.

Figure 4.66: Estimated number of Snohomish MU wild Coho Salmon smolts outmigrants, years 1990 through 2022
Figure 4.67: Estimated marine survival rates for Snohomish River Coho Salmon, (data provided by M. Litz, WDFW).

Most Recent Abundance Forecast and Methods This information is available in the ’s 2024 Preseason Report 1 (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2024c) and (Litz 2024).

The 2024 Snohomish abundance forecast is 71,600, resulting in a classification of the stock abundance as “Moderate” under the 2019 and “Low” under the . This results in an allowable total of no more than 40%.

The Snohomish MU forecast is based on 2023 out-migrant smolts estimated from a mark-recapture estimate of smolt abundance from two smolt traps, one operated on the Skykomish River (river mile 26.5) and the second on the Snoqualmie River (river mile 12.2). Smolt trap estimates for the Skykomish and Snoqualmie rivers are summed and further expanded for rearing downstream of the trap locations in the Snohomish River. A marine survival rate of 4.6% was applied to the total smolt production estimate for the Snohomish watershed of 1,557,000 smolts (Litz 2024). The resulting forecast was rounded to the nearest hundred to account for co-manager agreed-to precision.

Escapement Monitoring

Known distribution of spawners within the basin is depicted in Figure 4.68 (derived from WDFW’s Salmonid Stock Inventory (SaSI) located at: http://wdfw.wa.gov/conservation/fisheries/sasi/).

ToDo: create escapement figures (from post-season FRAM database) Snohomish MU escapement estimates, return years x-x.

Figure 4.68: Spawner distribution of Coho Salmon in the Snohomish River Basin.
Fishery Monitoring
Enhancement

Hatchery production within the Snohomish is much larger than the Skagit and Stillaguamish , averaging 1.5 million Coho Salmon released annually over brood years 1983 to 2020. Most of the production is from the Bernie Kai-Kai Gobin Hatchery (822,000 annually; 54% of total hatchery releases) and the Wallace River Hatchery (581,000 annually; 38% of total hatchery releases), both of which are located within the Snohomish Basin (Figure 4.68). The Bernie Kai-Kai Gobin Hatchery opened in 1983 and is located at the juncture of the east and west Forks of Tulalip Creek and is operated by the Tulalip Tribes (Tulalip Tribes 2004). This Coho Salmon program is an isolated program and the purpose of this program is to provide Coho salmon for harvest by Tulalip Tribal members in a terminal area fishery. Production from this program is also available for harvest by the non- Indian sport fishery and contributes to other directed and incidental harvest of Coho Salmon in other preterminal fisheries. The Wallace River Hatchery is located at RM 4 on the Wallace River (07.0940) at the confluence with May Creek (07.0943) and is operated by WDFW (WDFW 2003). Salmonids have been reared at the Wallace River site since 1907. The current Wallace River Hatchery Coho Salmon program is an integrated program with the goal of providing fish for harvest opportunity (WDFW 2003). Adults are collected at the following two collection facilities: 1) an instream trap located on May Creek; and 2) with the use of a weir placed across the Wallace River from June until October 1st.

Mass marking within the began with the 1996 brood and has averaged 738,000 marked fish released annually through brood 2020.

Figure 4.69: Hatchery production of Coho Salmon released within the Snohomish , brood years 1983 through 2020.

4.2.6.3 Management Performance

Forecast Evaluation

ToDo: SoPanel also wishes to see the numbers (pre, post, % diff from pre by year).

Figure 4.70: Comparison of preseason abundance predictions with the post-season estimates for the Snohomish MU.
Fishery Mortality and Escapement

The base period for the FRAM defines the temporal and spatial distributions of salmon fishing mortalities from each . The current FRAM base period for Coho Salmon includes catch years 1986-1992. During this period, fishing effort, tagging, and fishery sampling of Coho Salmon was high, allowing relatively fine-scale discrimination between salmon distributions. Coded-wire-tag codes used during the base period for the Snohomish are provided in the Appendix and average base period by individual fisheries are listed below.

Table 4.26: Snohomish MU average annual (total) and time period specific ERs used in the current FRAM base period.
Fishery Jan-Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct-Dec Total
KMZ Sport 0.00% - - - - 0.00%
Brookings Troll 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% - - 0.01%
Newport Sport 0.02% 0.06% 0.04% - - 0.13%
Newport Troll 0.03% 0.16% 0.04% 0.00% - 0.23%
Coos Bay Sport 0.01% 0.03% 0.01% - - 0.05%
Coos Bay Troll 0.01% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% - 0.05%
Tillamook Sport 0.01% 0.04% 0.02% 0.01% - 0.08%
Tillamook Troll 0.01% 0.18% 0.04% 0.00% - 0.24%
Col. Rvr. Buoy 10 Sport - 0.03% 0.05% 0.00% - 0.08%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Sport 0.00% 0.08% 0.04% - - 0.12%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Troll 0.01% 0.11% 0.04% 0.01% - 0.16%
WA Area 2 Non-Treaty Troll 0.03% 0.04% 0.05% 0.00% - 0.12%
WA Area 2 Treaty Troll 0.03% 0.09% 0.04% 0.00% - 0.17%
WA Area 2 Sport 0.03% 0.26% 0.12% 0.05% - 0.46%
WA Area 3 Non-Treaty Troll 0.03% 0.00% 0.05% 0.04% - 0.11%
WA Area 3 Treaty Troll 0.04% 0.07% 0.16% 0.06% - 0.33%
WA Area 3 Sport 0.00% 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% - 0.07%
WA Area 4 Sport 0.02% 0.21% 0.22% 0.06% - 0.51%
WA Area 4/4B Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.02% 0.29% 0.07% - 0.39%
WA Area 4/4B Treaty Troll 0.08% 0.36% 0.51% 0.27% - 1.22%
WA Area 5-6-6C Troll 0.04% 0.02% 0.04% 0.05% 0.01% 0.18%
Queets R Net - - - 0.00% - 0.00%
Hoh R Net - - - - 0.00% 0.00%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.00% 0.06%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Treaty Net - 0.10% 0.34% 0.46% 0.30% 1.20%
WA Area 7-7A Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.02% 0.05% 0.00% 0.07%
WA Area 7-7A Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.02% 0.09% 0.01% 0.12%
WA Area 5 Sport (Sekiu) 0.15% 0.42% 0.88% 1.72% 0.29% 3.45%
WA Area 6 Sport (Port Angeles) 0.04% 0.12% 0.14% 0.57% 0.22% 1.09%
WA Area 7 Sport (San Juan Islands) 0.00% 0.01% - 0.04% 0.03% 0.08%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Non-Treaty Net - - 0.00% 0.02% 0.01% 0.03%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Treaty Net - - 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% 0.04%
WA Area 8 Non-Treaty Net (Skagit) - - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
WA Area 8 Treaty Net (Skagit) - - - 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%
WA Area 8.1 Sport (Skagit Bay) - - 0.04% - - 0.04%
WA Area 9 Sport (Admirality Inlet) 0.11% 0.08% 0.13% 0.74% 0.25% 1.30%
WA Area 8A Non-Treaty Net - - - 3.37% 5.99% 9.36%
WA Area 8A Treaty Net - - - 5.31% 8.93% 14.24%
WA Area 8D Non-Treaty Net (Tulalip Bay) - - - 0.26% 1.28% 1.54%
WA Area 8D Treaty Net (Tulalip Bay) - - - 1.98% 7.36% 9.34%
Snohomish R Net - - - - 0.32% 0.32%
WA Area 8.2 Sport (Everett) 0.01% - - 2.36% 1.19% 3.56%
Snohomish R Sport - - - - 0.63% 0.63%
WA Area 10 Sport (Seattle) 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.05% - 0.13%
WA Area 10 Non-Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.64% 0.28% 0.93%
WA Area 10 Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.38% 0.17% 0.54%
WA Area 10F-G Treaty Net (Lake Union) - - 0.02% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03%
WA Area 11 Sport (Tacoma) 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% - 0.03%
WA Area 11 Non-Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.19% 0.05% 0.25%
WA Area 11 Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.02% 0.01% 0.03%
WAArea 13 Marine Sport 0.00% - 0.01% - - 0.01%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Treaty Net - - - 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
Area 9/9A Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Area 9/9A Treaty Net (On Res) - - - 0.01% 0.05% 0.06%
Lower Fraser River Sport 0.00% 0.00% - - - 0.00%
Johnstone Strait Troll - 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% - 0.02%
BC Northern Troll - 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% - 0.03%
BC North Central Troll - 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% - 0.02%
BC South Central Troll 0.08% 0.35% 0.07% 0.02% - 0.52%
NW Vancouver Island Troll 0.23% 4.02% 1.43% 0.54% - 6.23%
SW Vancouver Island Troll 0.44% 9.38% 6.44% 1.28% - 17.54%
Georgia Straits Troll 0.01% 0.02% 0.00% 0.01% - 0.04%
BC Juan de Fuca Troll - 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% - 0.02%
BC Northern Net - 0.00% 0.00% - - 0.00%
BC Central Net - 0.02% - 0.00% - 0.02%
SW Vancouver Island Net 0.03% - - 0.15% 0.06% 0.23%
Johnstone Straits Net - - 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% 0.07%
Fraser R Gill Net - 0.00% 0.00% - - 0.00%
BC Juan de Fuca Net 0.01% 0.23% 2.81% 1.44% 0.07% 4.56%
Johnstone Strait Sport 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% - - 0.01%
BC Central Sport - 0.00% - - - 0.00%
BC Juan de Fuca Sport 0.14% 0.41% 0.18% 0.22% 0.06% 1.00%
West Coast Vanc Is Sport 0.02% 0.09% 0.07% 0.00% - 0.18%
North Georgia Straits Sport 0.08% 0.05% 0.01% 0.01% - 0.16%
South Georgia Straits Sport 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.01% - 0.06%
Figure 4.71: Post-season estimates of fishery mortality for the Snohomish by mark-selective (MSF) and non-selective (NS) fisheries over catch years 1998 through 2022. These estimates are combined US and Canadian harvest impacts.
Table 4.27: Historical summary of annual total abundance (January age-3 without natural mortality), adult escapement, marine survival (Snohomish), and (ER) of the Snohomish Management Unit; since 2004.
catch_year abundance marine_survival escapement
ER
Canada SUS
2004 289,505 12.8% 252,787 0.4% 12.3%
2005 133,924 3.1% 104,149 0.8% 21.4%
2006 94,754 12.8% 75,626 1.0% 19.2%
2007 157,393 6.7% 117,737 1.5% 23.7%
2008 49,412 20.8% 35,816 0.7% 26.8%
2009 134,407 26.5% 98,950 1.0% 25.4%
2010 54,375 6.3% 49,101 0.5% 9.2%
2011 137,411 8.8% 111,376 1.6% 17.3%
2012 175,650 11.3% 130,639 1.5% 24.1%
2013 175,980 9.9% 125,872 2.0% 26.5%
2014 66,635 3.9% 46,243 2.6% 28.0%
2015 27,593 1.5% 12,808 2.9% 50.7%
2016 54,137 10.6% 44,144 0.8% 17.7%
2017 23,190 2.4% 18,196 1.2% 20.3%
2018 77,581 6.9% 58,129 2.4% 22.6%
2019 48,671 4.7% 40,312 3.4% 13.8%
2020 47,717 6.1% 42,674 1.6% 9.0%
2021 109,873 NA 97,523 1.6% 9.6%
2022 93,201 NA 85,683 1.8% 6.3%
Figure 4.72: Total exploitation rate (A) and escapement (B) of Snohomish MU by country, catch years 1986 through 2022. Dashed line indicates escapement goal for the Snohomish MU (Need esc goal for Snohomish 30,000 individuals).
Historical Overview of Status of Management Unit

ToDo: Need to add a summary here

Figure 4.73: Snohomish post-season estimates of ocean age-3 abundances, escapement, and harvest for catch years 2004 through 2022. The graphs include dashed trend lines and the vertical dotted lines highlight catch year 2010)
Figure 4.74: Snohomish pre- and post-season abundance status for catch years 2004 through 2021
Table 4.28: Preseason and post-season abundance estimates for Snohomish from 2004 onwards.
catch_year abund_preseason abund_postseason
2004 193,583.4 289,504.7
2005 243,394.7 133,924.0
2006 140,544.4 94,754.1
2007 99,599.0 157,393.4
2008 108,640.6 49,412.1
2009 67,334.6 134,406.7
2010 100,035.1 54,375.2
2011 180,881.9 137,410.9
2012 109,559.7 175,649.8
2013 164,558.6 175,980.3
2014 150,992.6 66,634.7
2015 152,515.5 27,592.7
2016 16,774.1 54,137.3
2017 107,587.7 23,190.4
2018 66,259.7 77,580.7
2019 62,869.9 48,671.5
2020 39,157.7 47,716.7
2021 60,371.2 109,873.2
2022 64,621.0 93,201.4
2023 76,963.1 NA
2024 72,130.4 NA

4.2.7 Hood Canal

This description was prepared by U.S. members of the Coho Technical Committee.

4.2.7.1 Biological and Geographic Description

The Hood Canal is one of the US Inside and includes all waters south and east of a line from Olele Point to Foulweather Bluff [WDFW_and_WWTIT_1994] (Figure 4.75). This consists of the following nine stocks: Northeast Hood Canal, Dewatto, Southeast Hood Canal, Skokomish, Southwest Hood Canal, Hamma Hamma, Duckabush, Dosewallips, and Quilcene/Dabob Bays (Comprehensive Coho Workgroup 1998). Coho Salmon utilize almost all of the accessible tributaries draining into Hood Canal. Hood Canal Coho Salmon belong to the larger Puget Sound/Strait of Georgia Coho Salmon evolutionarily significant unit (ESU; (Weitkamp et al. 1995). This ESU is currently a species of concern under the US Endangered Species Act (NOAA Fisheries 2009).

Figure 4.75: Hood Canal MU Watershed

TODO: add newest hatcheries to map (salwater park and north fork salmon)

Hood Canal is a 61 mile long fish hook-shaped fjord, bordered on the west by the heavily forested Olympic Mountains and the low rolling hills of the Kitsap Peninsula border it on the east. It is 1.2 to 2.5 miles (2 to 4 km) wide, and up to 570 feet (175 meters) deep in the main body of the canal. The depth at the northern entrance to the canal is 165 to 245 feet (50 to 75 meters), and shallows to 130 feet (40 meters) or less in the “arm” on the southern end of Hood Canal. The freshwater habitat of this consists of numerous small to medium-sized river basins entering Hood Canal.

Watersheds flowing into Hood Canal from the west, draining out of the Olympic Mountains, are high gradient rivers with limited access to anadromous fish due to natural barriers. They consist of river systems from the Skokomish River at the southwest corner northward to the Big Quilcene River. The Skokomish River, including the South and North forks, is the largest watershed. The other major watersheds that flow into the canal from the west include the Hamma Hamma, Duckabush, and Dosewallips rivers. These systems drain the eastern slopes of the Olympic Mountain Range, are of consistently higher gradient, and receive snowmelt runoff in addition to rain-fed discharge. The Duckabush and Dosewallips rivers also have some glacial input. Most tributaries entering the west side of Hood Canal are not highly productive for natural Coho Salmon due to the high average gradients, with the exception of some tributaries in the Skokomish River drainage.

Watersheds flowing into Hood Canal from the east, off the Kitsap Peninsula, are lower gradient, smaller systems. These river systems include the Union, Dewatto, and Tahuya rivers. The Kitsap Peninsula tributaries have some of the highest quality Coho Salmon spawning and rearing habitat in the , due to the numerous low gradient tributaries and limited urban development in most of this area.

Much of the land base in the region is managed for commercial timber production, though the upper reaches of the longer western Hood Canal tributaries originate in Olympic National Park. There are several small to moderate-sized communities scattered through the . Residential and commercial development rates are increasing rapidly on the Kitsap Peninsula, with the fastest growth around the town of Belfair on the southeastern end of the Hood Canal arm and along the northeast side of Hood Canal northwest of Bremerton.

There have been severe water quality issues in Hood Canal in recent years due to seasonally low dissolved oxygen (DO) problems. It is thought that the DO problem is associated with the shallow sill at the northern end that prevents full tidal exchange of the deep water layer, and organic pollutant inputs from human activities have exacerbated the periodic anoxic conditions in the sub-surface water layers in recent years (Allen 2007). It is currently unknown what the implications of this problem are for the future productivity of salmon populations in the region.

A number of salmon hatchery facilities exist within the Hood Canal and listed below are the Coho Salmon programs in the canal (Figure 4.75).

  • The Quilcene National Fish Hatchery (QNFH) is located in the northwestern section of Hood Canal on the Big Quilcene River at RM 3 [KM 4.8] from the estuary (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2007). This facility was constructed in 1911 and is operated by the US Fish and Wildlife Service. Coho Salmon have been raised continuously since 1911, presumably begun with local Quilcene River broodstock. It is an integrated harvest program with the goal of providing adult Coho Salmon for harvest (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1999). Current Coho Salmon annual production goals include 400,000 smolts (24,000 lbs) to be released on-station, 200,000 pre-smolts (9,050 lbs at transfer) to be transferred to the Skokomish Tribal net pen in Quilcene Bay, and 450,000 eyed eggs to be transferred to George Adams Hatchery (which are transferred later to the Port Gamble Bay Net Pens) (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2007). The QNFH stock is a somewhat early returning population compared to most other hatchery and wild populations in the Puget Sound region.

  • George Adams Hatchery is operated by WDFW and is located on Purdy Creek, a tributary to the lower Skokomish River in southwestern Hood Canal (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife 2003c). The hatchery was constructed in 1960 and expanded in 1977. The purpose of the Coho Salmon program at George Adams is to augment harvest opportunities and, in part, mitigate for reduced natural production in the Skokomish system, primarily caused by hydroelectric dams on the North Fork Skokomish River. The program is intended to be an isolated harvest program; however, an unknown number of adults stray into the spawning grounds of the Skokomish River. Current Coho Salmon production goal is 500,000 yearlings released annually into Purdy Creek. In addition to WDFW production at George Adams, the hatchery receives 450,000 eyed eggs from the QNFH and rears the fish for eventual transfer to the Port Gamble Bay Net Pens.

  • The WDFW Hoodsport Hatchery, located on the southwestern side of Hood Canal north of the Skokomish River, discontinued Coho Salmon production after the 1993 brood.

  • The Quilcene Net Pens are anchored at the southeast end of Quilcene Bay near Fisherman’s Point (commercial Marine Management Area [MMA] 12A), in northwestern Hood Canal (Seiler et al. 2003). This program is operated by the Skokomish Tribe and began releasing Coho Salmon in 1986. Eggs are collected from QNFH broodstock, incubated and hatched, and the fry are reared to smolts in the same hatchery before transfer to the Quilcene Bay Net Pens. The net pens receive the Coho Salmon smolts in January and the fish are reared until release in April or May. The program is intended to be an isolated harvest program and the production goal is to release 200,000 Coho Salmon smolts annually. Due to spring algal blooms, Coho Salmon have not been reared and released from the Net Pens since BY 2013. Instead, these fish have been kept at Quilcene NFH and released into the Big Quilcene River.

  • Little Boston Hatchery is a fall Chum Salmon hatchery program located at the mouth of Little Boston Creek on Port Gamble Bay and is operated by the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe. The hatchery is an isolated harvest program to support local fall Chum Salmon fishing opportunities. This program enhances the stability and viability of treaty and non-treaty fisheries. Up to 1300 adult Chum Salmon are collected each fall in order to release 950,000 fry during the following spring.

  • The Port Gamble Net Pens are anchored at the northern end of Port Gamble Bay (commercial MMA 9A) in northern Hood Canal. This is a cooperative effort with the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife and US Fish and Wildlife Service. The net pens are operated by the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe and began releasing Coho Salmon smolts in 1981 (Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe 2003). Eggs are collected from QNFH broodstock and transferred to George Adams Hatchery where they are hatched and the fry are reared to smolts before transfer to the Port Gamble Net Pens. The Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe operates and maintains the net pens, and fish food is provided by WDFW. Around 425,000 yearling Coho salmon are released each year after April 15. The program is intended to be an isolated harvest program and the production goal is to release 400,000 Coho Salmon smolts annually. update new release goals due to SRKW increases here

  • The newest hatcheries within the Canal include Saltwater Park Sockeye Hatchery and the North Fork Salmon Hatchery.

Figure 4.76: Saltwater park hatchery stuff

Both of these programs are operated through a partnership between the Skokomish Tribe and Tacoma Power. The Saltwater Park Sockeye Hatchery is located next to the powerhouse on the shores of Hood Canal and have raised and released only Sockeye Salmon, beginning with BY 2016 fish. Spring Chinook Salmon, Coho Salmon, and steelhead are raised and released from the North Fork Salmon Hatchery which is located on the southern shore of Lake Kokanee. Coho Salmon have been released from this hatchery beginning with BY 2013.

4.2.7.2 Management Framework

Objectives

Under the Comprehensive Coho Management Plan (Comprehensive Coho Workgroup 1998), mainstem Hood Canal wild Coho Salmon is the primary (key) and other aggregate (Area 9A [Port Gamble Net Pens and Area 9A wild], Area 12A [Area 12A wild, Quilcene NFH, Quilcene Bay net pens], and George Adams Hatchery) production are auxiliary (Comprehensive Coho Workgroup 1998). Under this plan, primary are controlling units in the sense that predefined management actions will be undertaken under specified abundance conditions, auxiliary are those managed to meet or exceed a minimum escapement, and secondary units are passively managed in mixed stock fisheries. Therefore, Hood Canal CCoho Salmonoho are managed for natural production.

Hood Canal Coho Salmon are also a primary for Puget Sound under the (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2013). Other primary in this region are eastern Juan de Fuca, Stillaguamish, Skagit, Snohomish, and South Puget Sound (hatchery) Coho Salmon. The ’s conservation objectives for these were based on the Puget Sound Salmon Management Plan, which defined management objectives and long-term goals for these stocks as developed by representatives from Federal, state, and tribal agencies. Conservation objectives for specific stocks were based on either maximum sustainable production for stocks managed primarily for natural production or on hatchery escapement needs for stocks managed for artificial production. The original conservation objectives were developed by a State/Tribal Management Plan Development Team following the Boldt Decision (384 F. Supp. 312 [W.D. Wash. 1974 ) with the goal for natural spawning stocks defined as “the adult spawning population that will, on the average, maximize biomass of juvenile outmigrants subsequent to incubation and freshwater rearing under average environmental conditions.” The method used to develop the objectives was based on assessment of the quantity and quality of rearing habitat and the number of adult spawners required to fully seed the habitat. Some objectives have subsequently been modified by the US District Court Fisheries Advisory Board and later determinations of the WDFW/Tribal Technical Committee. However, annual natural management objectives may vary from the FMP conservation objectives if agreed to by WDFW and the treaty Indian tribes under the provisions of US versus Washington (384 F. Supp. 312 [W.D. Wash. 1974 ) and subsequent US District Court orders.

In 2009, the adopted annual management objectives for Puget Sound Coho Salmon as recommended by WDFW and tribal co-managers under provisions of US versus Washington. The annual objectives were based on the categorical status and associated maximum limits. The formally adopted ER management objectives for Puget Sound Coho Salmon in November 2009, which were consistent with objectives, and in 2010 it replaced the longstanding FMP spawning escapement objectives.

The current / ceilings for the Hood Canal natural Coho Salmon population are provided in the table below. The current corresponding ocean abundance breakpoints are 19,545 and 41,000 adult Coho Salmon (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2013). Prior to adoption of -based management in domestic and international management processes, natural origin Hood Canal Coho Salmon were managed for a fixed escapement goal of 21,500, which was derived by use of a maximum freshwater juvenile carrying capacity model (Zillges 1977).

Table 4.29: Current Hood Canal ocean abundance reference breakpoints and maximum total by and status categories.
Status(/) Ocean Abundance
Reference Breakpoint
Total Exploitation Rate
Low/Critical < 19,546 Up to 20%
Moderate/Low 19,546 – 41,000 21% – 45%
Abundant/Normal > 41,000 46% – 65%

Once a preseason forecast of ocean age-3 adult Coho Salmon has been made, the forecast abundance is assessed relative to the prescribe abundance breakpoints; from these breakpoints, the status is assigned. For the Hood Canal , forecast abundances at or below 19,545 have “low” () or “critical” () status, those between 19,545 and 41,000 are “moderate” () or “low” () status, and those above 41,000 are “abundant” () or “normal” () status (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2013).

Stock Assessment
Indicator Stocks

The Hood Canal indicator programs include a wild fish indicator program at Big Beef Creek amd numerous hatchery tagging programs. Wild Coho Salmon survival and are monitored by natural-origin marked Coho Salmon from the WDFW Big Beef Creek Research Station. All upstream migrating adults and downstream migrating juveniles are enumerated, a portion of the out-migrants coded-wire tagged, and a portion of the returning adults sampled for recoveries (Volkhardt et al. 2007). An average of 26,000 wild Coho Salmon were coded-wire tagged and released for brood years years 1983-2020, annually (Figure 4.77) (Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission 1977). Released fish were adipose fin clipped brood years 1983-1995 and 1997. All other recent years the Coho Salmon have been released unclipped. Harvest rates may be higher for Big Beef Creek-origin Coho Salmon than Hood Canal natural Coho Salmon in aggregate. This is due to the presence of intensive tribal net fisheries in the marine waters adjacent to Big Beef Creek that may exploit Coho Salmon staging for entry to Big Beef Creek and adjacent streams at a higher rate than the other natural populations in the basin.

Figure 4.77: Number of wild fish caught, tagged, and released by clip status, within the Hood Canal MU over brood years 1983 through 2020.

In addition to wild stock tagging at Big Beef Creek, coded-wire-tag recovery-based estimates of survival rates are available for the Port Gamble Net Pens, Quilcene Bay Net Pens, Quilcene NFH, and George Adams Hatchery programs. Since brood year 1983, approximately 188,000 tagged and clipped Coho Salmon have been release annually from these programs combined. programs ( groups are marked and unmarked pairs of Coho Salmon) began with brood 1995 at George Adams, with brood 1996 at Quilene National Fish Hatchery, and were implemented for a few years at Quilcene Net Pens and Port Gamble Net Pens. The values for the non-adipose fin clipped and tagged Coho Salmon from these programs provide a surrogate measure of exploitation for natural-origin Coho Salmon from this region, particularly for non-terminal fisheries. Terminal harvest rates on these stocks are more intensive than for Hood Canal natural Coho Salmon in aggregate because of the intensive extreme terminal area fisheries targeted at returns to these programs. Approximately 46,000 tagged and unclipped Coho Salmon have been released annually from George Adams since brood 1995. The program at Quilcene has been an average annual release size of 41,000 for broods 1996 through 2010. In attempt to improve survival and data for the hatchery stock, the number of tagged fish released was increased beginning with brood 2011 to approximately 75,000 for each component of the program. The groups released for the Hood Canal are provided in table Table 12.3 (ToDo –> cross reference).

Figure 4.78: Total number of coded-wire-tagged hatchery coho Salmon released, by clip status, within the Hood Canal MU for brood years 1983 through 2020.

estimates are available for the Quilcene NFH and George Adams Hatchery programs. Coho Salmon broodstock are not collected at the net pen release sites, so there is no complete accounting of escapement of coded-wire-tagged Coho Salmon originating from these facilities, and cannot be directly calculated for these programs. The intensive fisheries adjacent to the Quilcene Bay and Port Gamble net pens are designed to harvest the majority of available Coho Salmon retuning to these areas, so the sum of all tag recoveries in fisheries and escapement are considered to provide reasonable relative estimates of marine survival for these programs, albeit with some negative bias.

Forecast Methods

Since 1996, WDFW and tribal biologists have developed forecasts of wild Coho Salmon run size for all primary and most secondary in Puget Sound and the Washington coast (Zimmerman 2013). These annual forecasts are described in the ’s Preseason Forecast I document available each February [Pacific Fishery Management Council (2013); www.pcouncil.org]. These forecasts rely on estimates of wild Coho Salmon production (i.e., smolts) paired with estimates of marine survival. Wild Coho Salmon production estimates for each of the primary and secondary in Puget Sound were derived from results of juvenile trapping studies conducted in the Skagit, Stillaguamish, Snohomish, Green, Nisqually, East Kitsap, and Deschutes rivers as well as in tributaries to Lake Washington and Hood Canal. Analyses of these long-term data sets have demonstrated that wild Coho Salmon smolt production is limited by a combination of factors including seeding levels (i.e., escapement), environmental effects (flows, marine derived nutrients), and habitat degradation (Zimmerman 2013).

For Hood Canal , natural smolt production and adult escapements are intensively monitored by WDFW at the Big Beef Creek Research Station and three nearby tributaries that enter Hood Canal on the Kitsap Peninsula northeast of Bremerton. A permanent WDFW upstream/downstream migrant weir is located on Big Beef Creek just upstream of the estuary, and juvenile fence traps are installed annually on Little Anderson, Seabeck, and Stavis creeks, which are smaller adjacent tributaries (WRIAs 15.0377, 15.0400, and 15.0404).

Production is not directly measured in all Hood Canal tributaries; therefore estimates are based on an expansion of the measured production. Three approaches have been used to expand measured production at Big Beef Creek and neighboring tributaries to a Hood Canal estimate (Zimmerman 2012). The first approach assumes that Coho Salmon production from four tributaries (Little Anderson, Big Beef, Seabeck, and Stavis creeks) is 5.9% that of the entire Hood Canal (Zillges 1977). A subsequent review by the Hood Canal Joint Technical Committee (HCJTC) estimated that Coho Salmon production from these same four tributaries to be 7.6% that of Hood Canal (Hood Canal Joint Technical Committee 1994). A third approach (Volkhardt and Seiler 2001), based on the HCJTC forecast review in summer of 2001, estimated that Coho Salmon production from Big Beef Creek was 4.56% that of Hood Canal.

Estimated smolt production in the Hood Canal averaged 538,000 smolts annually during 1995 to 2022. Smolt production has varied from a low of 67,000 in 2021 to a high of 995,000 in 2009 (Table 4.1).

Figure 4.79: Estimated number of Hood Canal MU wild Coho Salmon smolts outmigrants, years 1990 through 2022
Table 4.30: Hood Canal natural smolt production, 1995-2012 out-migration years (Zimmerman 2012, 2013).
Out-migration Year Smolt Production
1995 392,000
1996 511,000
1997 672,000
1998 551,000
1999 429,000
2000 928,000
2001 479,000
2002 534,000
2003 791,000
2004 550,000
2005 707,000
2006 846,000
2007 626,875
2008 601,293
2009 995,000
2010 535,000
2011 804,000
2012 323,000
2013 490,000
2014 889,000
2015 163,000
2016 386,000
2017 359,000
2018 386,000
2019 430,000
2020 320,000
2021 67,000
2022 295,000

Marine survival rates of wild Coho Salmon stocks have been measured using wild indicator stocks in four geographic regions of Puget Sound: Big Beef Creek, Deschutes River, South Fork Skykomish River, and Baker River (Zimmerman 2013). These populations are assumed to be representative of the different Puget Sound regions. Marine survival of Big Beef Coho Salmon (Hood Canal) was correlated with jack return rates. Between 1977 and 1996, the ratio of adult to jack return rates averaged 11.3 (range = 6 to 18) and was remarkably consistent among years. During these years, 78% of the variation in age-3 Coho Salmon marine survival could be predicted from jack return rates. Over the past decade, the ratio of adult to jack returns has increased (average = 26.8). During this period, jack return rates explain 70% of the variation in marine survival of Big Beef Coho Salmon.

Jack returns represent the composite of variables impacting early survival in the marine environment assuming that early marine survival remains the driver of overall return rates. While this assumption has been moderately supported by results from the WSPE monitoring stations, there are years when jack returns have had very poor predictive capacity and periods when the ratio of jack to adult returns change without a clear explanation. In the preparation for developing the adult forecast, this uncertainty was further addressed by examining the relationships between major ocean indicators (i.e., PDO, upwelling, spring transition) and marine survival. When significant correlations existed, predicted age-3 marine survival was compared between the ocean indicator and jack return approach.

Marine survival for the indicator stock for the Hood Canal , Big Beef Creek, has averaged 15% during return years 1978-2012 (broods 1975-2009), with a high of 32% in 1986 and a low of 2% in 2010 (Figure 4.80). Marine survival of broods 1975-2002 averaged 17%, while marine survival of broods 2003-2009 averaged only 6.3%. Like other Puget Sound indicators, the long term trend in marine survival is downwards although marine survivals exceeding 20% during the period from 2002 to 2004 is encouraging.

Figure 4.80: Estimated marine survival rates for Big Beef Creek Coho Salmon, (data provided by M. Litz, WDFW).

Most Recent Abundance Forecast and Methods This information is available in the ’s 2024 Preseason Report 1 (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2024c) and (Litz 2024).

The 2024 Hood Canal abundance forecast is 36,541, resulting in a classification of the stock abundance as “Moderate” under the 2019 and “Low” under the . This results in an allowable total of no more than 45%.

This forecast is based on a linear regression model that related the return of tagged natural jack Coho Salmon at Big Beef Creek to Hood Canal December age-2 recruits in the subsequent run year, using brood years 1983–1998 and 2002–2019. This forecast was then converted to abundance. The 1999–2001 broods were excluded because of the unusually high recruit-per-tagged jack ratio, which is not expected to occur this year. For 2024, as was done since 2016, the co-managers agreed to apply a conservative bias correction for forecasting natural Coho Salmon in Hood Canal.

Escapement Monitoring

The method used for estimating natural Coho Salmon escapements in this is the Base-Year Index approach (Haymes 2008). This approach is used to estimate annual Coho Salmon escapements to most of the major river basins and geographically associated aggregations of smaller independent tributaries in the Puget Sound region, exclusive of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The Base-Year Index approach was adopted for estimating Coho escapements in this region because the distribution of Coho Salmon spawners is geographically broad in each river basin and an approach is required that is not dependent on the direct census of a large portion of the total spawning habitat, and that can use serial live and/or dead fish observations instead of spawning redd enumeration because the multiple species overlap and/or high spawning densities often make Coho Salmon redd enumeration impractical.

The Base-Year Index method allows expansion of an annual index of abundance developed from serial field counts of live or dead salmon, collected in a relatively small fraction of the total freshwater habitat to an estimate of basin or region-total escapement. A series of point counts of live Coho Salmon abundance are made in several fixed-location survey reaches, distributed throughout each major river basin or region. At the end of the spawning season an abundance index is developed for each index survey reach using the “area under the curve” (AUC) approach (Ames 1984; Irvine et al. 1993). The sum of the individual abundance index values from an individual escapement estimation unit (usually a river basin) are then multiplied by a historical “base year” basin-total escapement estimate developed from a mark-recapture study. The resulting value is divided by the base year index of abundance calculated for the same survey reaches that were monitored in the current escapement year, to produce the basin-total escapement estimate for the current year.

In the Hood Canal , escapements are estimated in 10 survey reaches covering 9 miles (14.5 km) (Haymes 2008). In addition, natural smolt production and adult escapements are intensively monitored by WDFW at the Big Beef Creek Research Station and 3 nearby tributaries that enter Hood Canal on the Kitsap Peninsula northeast of Bremerton. A permanent WDFW upstream/downstream migrant weir is located on Big Beef Cr. just upstream of the estuary, and juvenile fence traps are installed annually on 3 smaller adjacent tributaries (WRIAs 15.0377, 15.0400, and 15.0404). The adult escapement information collected at this weir is used as an index abundance adjustment scalar in the Base-Year Index escapement estimation process for the . Spawning redd enumeration-based accounting of adult escapement is currently conducted on the three study streams adjacent to Big Beef that are being monitored for juvenile production as part of an ongoing habitat productivity study (Volkhardt et al. 2007). Historical trends in escapement for the Hood Canal are provided in Table ToDo and Figure ToDo. Known distribution of spawners within the basin is depicted in Figure 4.81.

ToDo –> add figure 4.2

Total by US and Canada and escapement for the Hood Canal for catch years 1986 to 2009. () estimates from 1986 to 1997 are based on CWT recoveries and were generated using the Mixed-Stock Model and cohort reconstruction process. A post-season FRAM assessment technique was used to estimate for catch years 1998 to 2009.

ToDo –> add figure 4.3

Figure 4.81: Spawner distribution of Coho Salmon in the Hood Canal River Basin.
Fishery Monitoring (should this be moved to above escapement monitoring?)

A fundamental requirement of abundance-based Coho Salmon management under the is that all fishery impacts on individual be monitored with respect to both number of fish caught and CWTs. This requires basic reporting of total impacts by fishery and the capacity to estimate each fishery’s -specific impacts. Total fishing mortalities for each must be estimated to enable managers the ability to evaluate the annual relative to the -prescribed impact limits. Assessments of total fishing mortalities for each must include both directed and incidentally-landed catch as well as estimates of non-landed mortalities. These estimates may be obtained through monitoring programs or, in some cases, generated through the use of algorithms built into the Fishery Regulation Assessment Model (FRAM). Monitoring programs may involve test fisheries or data collected directly from fishers (e.g., through creel survey interviews and other fisher-reported techniques, such as log books or fish-tickets). Estimation of non-landed fishing mortality requires annual estimates of encounter rates by fishery and gear.

Management-Unit-specific impacts are generally evaluated using the coast-wide system. This system manages information on the release and recovery of coded-wire tags. The volume of tags recovered for a given will depend on tagging rates, marine survival rates, exploitation and escapement rates, and sampling rates in fisheries and escapements. A recent review of the coastwide program (Pacific Salmon Commission Coded Wire Tag Workgroup 2008) recommends target sampling rates of 20% for the landed catch and 20% for escapements, with a minimum of 10 tags collected in each fishery or escapement stratum.

Post-season estimates are also generated using the Post-Season FRAM Model. Post-season estimates of catch and escapement are entered into the updated FRAM model with the same fishery regulation and effort package used for preseason modeling to generate post-season estimates.

Enhancement

Hatchery production within the Hood Canal is large, averaging 1.7 million Coho Salmon released annually for broods 1983 through 2020. These releases are from numerous small cooperative programs and a few larger hatchery programs within the , including net pens. The largest programs currently in operation include Quilcene National Fish Hatchery (34% of the total released 1983-2020), George Adams Hatchery (28%), Port Gamble Net Pens (26%), and Quilcene Net Pens (9%). Coho Salmon were released from Hoodsport Hatchery in South Hood Canal for broods 1983 through 1994 and average 119,000 per year during this period. A new program at the NF Skokomish Hatchery began in 2013 and has released an average of 9,000 fish since its inception.

Mass marking in the began with brood 1995 and has averaged 962,000 marked Coho Salmon annually.

Figure 4.82: Hatchery production of Coho Salmon released within the Hood Canal , brood years 1983 through 2020.

4.2.7.3 Management Performance

Forecast Evaluation

The performances of forecasts for Hood Canal Coho abundance have generally underestimated actual abundance, resulting in negative differences between pre- and post-season estimates (Figure 4.83). During catch years 2004-2010, predicted cohort size (without natural mortality) ranged from a low of 30,363 (2008) to a high of 98,400 (2005) while post-season estimates ranged from 14,812 (2010) to 240,822 (2004). Accordingly, the difference between preseason and post-season estimates varied from −145% (2004) to +55% (2010) of the preseason estimates.

ToDo: SoPanel also wishes to see the numbers (pre, post, % diff from pre by year).

Figure 4.83: Comparison of preseason abundance predictions with the post-season estimates for the Hood Canal MU.
Fishery Mortality and Escapement

The base period for the FRAM defines the temporal and spatial distributions of salmon fishing mortalities from each . The current FRAM base period for Coho Salmon Salmon includes catch years 1986-1992. During this period, fishing effort, tagging, and fishery sampling of Coho Salmon Salmon was high, allowing relatively fine-scale discrimination between salmon distributions. Coded-wire-tag codes used to develop the base period for the Hood Canal are provided in (To-do –> add reference to table here) and average base period by individual fisheries are provided here (To-do –> add base period fishery impacts).

During the base period, Coho Salmon production from the Hood Canal contributed to sport and commercial fisheries in southern BC, the northern Washington coast, Strait of Juan de Fuca, and inner Puget Sound (Figure 5.1; Appendix C). Terminal commercial purse seine, gill and set-net fisheries occur in commercial fishery management areas 9A, 12A, 12, 12B, 12C, 12D, and the Skokomish River.

Table 4.31: Hood Canal MU average annual (total) and time period specific ERs used in the current FRAM base period.
Fishery Jan-Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct-Dec Total
Brookings Troll - 0.01% 0.00% - - 0.02%
Newport Sport 0.03% 0.07% 0.09% - - 0.19%
Newport Troll 0.04% 0.17% 0.08% 0.01% - 0.30%
Coos Bay Sport 0.01% 0.03% - - - 0.05%
Coos Bay Troll 0.03% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% - 0.12%
Tillamook Sport 0.00% 0.03% 0.06% - - 0.10%
Tillamook Troll 0.03% 0.33% 0.11% 0.03% - 0.50%
Col. Rvr. Buoy 10 Sport - 0.06% 0.02% 0.04% - 0.12%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Sport 0.01% 0.12% 0.08% - - 0.21%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Troll 0.00% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% - 0.22%
WA Area 2 Non-Treaty Troll 0.04% 0.04% 0.05% 0.01% - 0.13%
WA Area 2 Treaty Troll 0.04% 0.09% 0.04% 0.03% - 0.19%
WA Area 2 Sport 0.05% 0.44% 0.24% 0.02% - 0.74%
WA Area 3 Non-Treaty Troll 0.09% 0.01% 0.06% 0.01% - 0.18%
WA Area 3 Treaty Troll 0.12% 0.22% 0.22% 0.02% - 0.58%
WA Area 3 Sport - 0.06% 0.02% 0.03% - 0.11%
WA Area 4 Sport - 0.42% 0.58% 0.10% - 1.09%
WA Area 4/4B Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.04% 0.49% 0.07% - 0.61%
WA Area 4/4B Treaty Troll 0.13% 0.66% 0.86% 0.26% - 1.90%
WA Area 5-6-6C Troll 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.12% 0.03% 0.23%
Grays Harbor Estuary Net - - - - 0.01% 0.01%
Hoh R Net - - - 0.00% - 0.00%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Non-Treaty Net 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.09% 0.02% 0.14%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Treaty Net 0.00% 0.16% 0.60% 1.01% 1.97% 3.75%
WA Area 7-7A Non-Treaty Net - 0.02% 0.02% 0.07% 0.02% 0.14%
WA Area 7-7A Treaty Net - 0.03% 0.02% 0.13% 0.05% 0.22%
WA Area 5 Sport (Sekiu) 0.32% 1.18% 2.25% 3.55% 0.92% 8.21%
WA Area 6 Sport (Port Angeles) 0.06% 0.38% 0.52% 1.08% 1.11% 3.15%
WA Area 7 Sport (San Juan Islands) - 0.03% 0.01% 0.05% - 0.08%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Non-Treaty Net - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Treaty Net - - 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.02%
WA Area 8 Non-Treaty Net (Skagit) - - - 0.00% - 0.00%
WA Area 8 Treaty Net (Skagit) - - - 0.01% - 0.01%
WA Area 9 Sport (Admirality Inlet) 0.08% 0.21% 0.41% 1.71% 1.44% 3.85%
WA Area 8A Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.10% 0.09% 0.20%
WA Area 8A Treaty Net - - - 0.16% 0.14% 0.30%
WA Area 8.2 Sport (Everett) - - 0.23% - - 0.23%
WA Area 10 Sport (Seattle) 0.03% 0.04% 0.21% 0.79% 1.08% 2.14%
WA Area 10 Non-Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 6.34% 5.83% 12.17%
WA Area 10 Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 3.71% 3.38% 7.10%
WA Area 10E Non-Treaty Net (East Kitsap) - - - 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
WA Area 10E Treaty Net (East Kitsap) - - - 0.08% 0.25% 0.33%
WA Area 10F-G Treaty Net (Lake Union) - - - 0.01% 0.04% 0.04%
WA Area 11 Sport (Tacoma) 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.06% 0.05% 0.14%
WA Area 11 Non-Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.58% 0.76% 1.34%
WA Area 11 Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.07% 0.09% 0.16%
WAArea 13 Marine Sport - 0.01% - - 0.07% 0.08%
Area 13 Non-Treaty Net (So Puget Sound) - - - - 0.00% 0.00%
Area 13 Treaty Net (So Puget Sound) - - - - 0.08% 0.08%
Area 12 Marine Sport - - 0.01% 0.21% 0.44% 0.65%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Non-Treaty Net - - 0.02% 2.37% 6.26% 8.65%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Treaty Net - - 0.03% 2.40% 8.20% 10.63%
Area 9/9A Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.01% 0.06% 0.07%
Area 9/9A Treaty Net (On Res) - - - 1.08% 6.14% 7.22%
Area 12C-12D Non-Treaty Net (SE Hood Canal) - - - 0.27% 0.86% 1.13%
Area 12C-12D Treaty Net (SE Hood Canal) - - - 2.12% 4.02% 6.14%
Skokomish R Net - - - - 18.88% 18.88%
12, 12B Trib FW Sport - - - - 0.11% 0.11%
12C, 12D Trib FW Sport - - - - 0.53% 0.53%
Skokomish R Sport - - - - 0.57% 0.57%
Lower Fraser River Sport 0.00% - 0.00% - - 0.00%
Johnstone Strait Troll - 0.06% - - - 0.06%
BC Northern Troll - 0.07% 0.06% 0.00% - 0.12%
BC North Central Troll - 0.10% 0.00% - - 0.10%
BC South Central Troll 0.05% 0.42% 0.03% 0.01% - 0.51%
NW Vancouver Island Troll 0.28% 5.64% 2.28% 1.85% - 10.05%
SW Vancouver Island Troll 0.62% 14.64% 11.98% 5.15% - 32.39%
Georgia Straits Troll - 0.04% 0.06% 0.03% - 0.12%
BC Juan de Fuca Troll - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% - 0.00%
BC Northern Net - - 0.01% - - 0.01%
BC Central Net - 0.01% - - - 0.01%
SW Vancouver Island Net 0.00% 0.02% - 0.22% 0.08% 0.33%
Johnstone Straits Net - - 0.08% 0.05% 0.04% 0.17%
Georgia Straits Net - - 0.02% - - 0.02%
Fraser R Gill Net - - 0.03% - - 0.03%
BC Juan de Fuca Net 0.02% 0.28% 5.88% 2.93% 0.05% 9.15%
Johnstone Strait Sport 0.01% 0.02% 0.01% - - 0.04%
BC Juan de Fuca Sport 0.37% 0.75% 0.60% 0.65% 0.40% 2.78%
West Coast Vanc Is Sport 0.14% 0.06% 0.13% 0.02% - 0.36%
North Georgia Straits Sport 0.08% 0.06% 0.01% 0.02% - 0.16%
South Georgia Straits Sport 0.02% 0.03% 0.01% - - 0.06%
SEAK Southwest Troll - - 0.01% - - 0.01%
Southeast Alaska Net - - 0.02% - - 0.02%

A species-selective commercial beach seine fishery occurs in Area 12A to allow harvest of Coho Salmon during the ESA protected summer chum run. A marine Coho Salmon sport fishery occurs in sport fishery management area 12, and significant freshwater Coho Salmon sport fisheries occur in the Dewatto, Tahuya, Skokomish and Big Quilcene rivers. The terminal fishery co-managers are WDFW, the Point No Point Treaty Council/Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe, Jamestown S’klallam Tribe, Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe, and the Skokomish Tribe.

Figure 4.84: Post-season estimates of fishery mortality for the Hood Canal by mark-selective (MSF) and non-selective (NS) fisheries over catch years 1998 through 2022. These estimates are combined US and Canadian harvest impacts.

Total have generally declined, averaging 72% between 1986 and 1996 then gradually falling to an extended period of low (27%) during 1997-2004 (Figure 4.85). have increased since 2004, averaging 59% during 2005-2009 (Table 4.32). Up until 1996, the by Canadian fishers averaged 40%, but has since declined to an average of less than 1.5%.

ToDo - Remove this paragraph? A comparison of by major fisheries during the base period and the most recent five years (2006-2010) is provided in Figure 5.1. Individual commercial fishery management areas within Washington State are depicted in Figure 5.2 and 5.3.

Table 4.32: Historical summary of annual total abundance (January age-3 without natural mortality), adult escapement, marine survival (Big Beef Creek), and (ER) of the Hood Canal Management Unit; since 2004.
catch_year abundance marine_survival escapement
ER
Canada SUS
2004 199,071 22.2% 112,005 0.7% 43.0%
2005 54,731 15.7% 34,076 1.8% 35.9%
2006 51,153 4.8% 13,269 1.9% 72.1%
2007 88,814 9.2% 46,350 2.6% 45.2%
2008 40,827 4.2% 23,477 1.2% 41.3%
2009 58,159 13.4% 26,925 1.7% 51.9%
2010 14,526 2.0% 4,170 0.9% 70.4%
2011 56,824 7.4% 24,369 2.9% 54.2%
2012 125,109 10.8% 51,758 2.6% 56.0%
2013 37,882 10.7% 16,037 3.7% 54.0%
2014 69,596 7.6% 22,087 5.8% 62.5%
2015 63,699 5.6% 26,302 5.7% 53.0%
2016 31,828 8.3% 19,065 1.3% 38.7%
2017 34,963 7.0% 22,507 2.3% 33.3%
2018 18,696 7.5% 7,982 4.0% 53.2%
2019 14,666 3.5% 7,908 5.5% 40.5%
2020 23,616 3.4% 16,829 3.4% 25.4%
2021 45,719 8.9% 34,388 3.4% 21.3%
2022 20,007 4.2% 9,189 3.5% 50.6%
2023 NA 5.6% NA NA NA
Figure 4.85: Total exploitation rate (A) and escapement (B) of Hood Canal MU by country, catch years 1986 through 2022. Dashed line indicates escapement goal for the Hood Canal MU (Need esc goal for Hood Canal 30,000 individuals).
Historical Overview of Status of Management Unit
Figure 4.86: Hood Canal post-season estimates of ocean age-3 abundances, escapement, and harvest for catch years 2004 through 2022. The graphs include dashed trend lines and the vertical dotted lines highlight catch year 2010)
Figure 4.87: Hood Canal pre- and post-season abundance status for catch years 2004 through 2021
Table 4.33: Preseason and post-season abundance estimates for Hood Canal from 2004 onwards.
catch_year abund_preseason abund_postseason
2004 99,424.9 199,070.8
2005 98,952.1 54,730.8
2006 59,812.2 51,153.3
2007 42,628.1 88,814.5
2008 29,347.0 40,827.4
2009 48,990.5 58,159.3
2010 33,440.9 14,525.9
2011 75,237.4 56,823.6
2012 73,928.5 125,109.1
2013 37,092.1 37,882.0
2014 47,989.5 69,595.9
2015 61,914.7 63,698.8
2016 35,467.1 31,828.2
2017 116,091.8 34,962.8
2018 59,861.9 18,696.2
2019 40,410.6 14,666.3
2020 35,231.9 23,616.1
2021 29,047.5 45,718.6
2022 20,368.4 20,007.0
2023 38,213.0 NA
2024 36,873.6 NA

4.2.8 US Strait of Juan de Fuca (JDF)

This description was prepared by U.S. members of the Coho Technical Committee.

4.2.8.1 Biological and Geographic Description

The US Strait JDF is one of the US Inside and includes Coho Salmon inhabiting the numerous streams and rivers along the southern side of Strait of Juan de Fuca. This spans two evolutionarily significant units (ESUs). Populations inhabiting the western Straits (from Salt Creek westwards) are part of the Olympic Peninsula ESU, while those inhabiting the Elwha River eastwards belong to the Puget Sound/Strait of Georgia ESU (Weitkamp et al. 1995). The former was deemed “not warranted” for listing under the US Endangered Species Act, while the latter is a “species of concern” (NOAA Fisheries 2009).

The Strait of Juan de Fuca covers an area of approximately 1,500 mi2 and includes some 48 independent watersheds that support Coho Salmon ranging in size of basin from less than 10 mi2 to more than 300 mi2. Its boundaries are Cape Flattery to the west and Point Wilson to the east along the northern end of the Olympic Peninsula.

The Strait of Juan de Fuca consists of numerous small to large tributaries draining the Olympic Mountain range and surrounding foothills. The western portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca (WSJF) encompasses waters emptying to the Strait of Juan de Fuca west of the Elwha River, to the tip of Cape Flattery. The WSJF contains 27 salmonid-bearing watersheds that drain directly into the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The largest subbasin within the watershed is the Hoko River, followed by the Lyre, Pysht, Sekiu, and Clallam rivers (Smith 1999). The eastern portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca includes all streams and rivers from the Elwha River east to Chimacum Creek.

The climate varies widely throughout the , with higher annual precipitation to the west and at higher elevations. Annual rainfall decreases dramatically from the western to the eastern portion of the , due to the rain-shadow effect of the Olympic Mountains on the eastern portion of the . The eastern portion of the receives as little as 15 inches [38 cm] of rain a year, increasing to over 85 inches [216 cm] in the western portion of the .

The estuarine habitat in the is somewhat transitional between the more sheltered inland estuaries of inner Puget Sound and the open Pacific Ocean, with decreasing shallow, sheltered marine habitat encountered moving westward from inner Puget Sound.

Coho Salmon in the Strait of Juan de Fuca are significantly influenced by degradation of freshwater habitats (McHenry 1996). Habitat conditions in the Dungeness River are so severely degraded that only limited natural production occurs. The lower 11 miles of the Dungeness River has been extensively channelized and systematically cleared of large woody debris. Surface water withdrawals on the Dungeness River currently average about 60% of the river’s natural stream flow. Construction of hydroelectric dams without passage facilities on the Elwha River at RM 4.9 and RM 12.0 effectively eliminated 35.9 miles of mainstem and 42.9 mi of tributary habitat from production. A major improvement in anadromous salmonid habitat is happening in the with the recent removal of the two Elwha River dams. Their removal has opened this currently inaccessible habitat, much of which is located within Olympic National Park and in extremely good condition.

Much of the freshwater habitat in the is managed for commercial timber production, though the upper reaches of the longer tributaries in the region around the Elwha River originate in Olympic National Park. The main population centers of Sequim and Port Angeles are located in the eastern part of the . Urbanization, agricultural activities, and water withdraws have degraded the productivity of streams in this part of the , with the exception of the upper reaches of the longer tributaries that originate in Olympic National Park.

A few salmon hatchery facilities exist within the Strait of Juan de Fuca (Figure 4.88). Below is a list of those programs that rear and release Coho Salmon.

  • The Lower Elwha Fish Hatchery is located on RM 1.25 on the Elwha River. It was completed in 2011 and replaced the Elwha Hatchery which was located near the mouth of the Elwha River (RM 0.25) on the Elwha Reservation (Elwha Klallam Tribe 2003; LEKT 2012). The current Coho Salmon program is operated as an “integrated harvest” program with an annual production goal of 425,000 smolts to be released on station. The goals of the current program are to preserve and rebuild natural Coho Salmon production in the Elwha River by supplementing the abundance of juvenile and returning adult fish. Long term goals include recolonization of suitable Coho Salmon spawning and rearing habitat and enhanced in-river terminal harvest opportunities.

  • The Dungeness Hatchery is located on the Dungeness River at RM 10.5 from the estuary, and is operated by WDFW (WDFW 2003a). The current Coho Salmon program is operated as a “segregated” program with an annual production goal of 500,000 smolts to be released on station, 2,000 fry planted into Cooper Creek, and up to 1,900 eyed eggs transferred to local school projects. The goal of this program is provide fish for sport and commercial harvest.

  • Hurd Creek Hatchery is operated by WDFW and is located on Hurd Creek (WRIA 18.0028), a tributary to the Dungeness River (WRIA 18.0018) at RM 3 (WDFW 2003b). The facility began operating in 1980 and its primary purpose is to aid in wild stock restoration. The Coho Salmon program has been operated as an “integrated recovery” program with the goal of contributing to the restoration of a healthy, natural, self-sustaining population of Coho Salmon that will maintain the genetic characteristic of the native stock. This program began with the 1998 brood and was to last 9 years (3 complete broods). Program specifications include that Coho Salmon are to be collected from Snow Creek and spawned, with the goal of releasing 18,000 unfed fry each into Snow and Andrews creeks and 9,000 fingerling and 9,000 yearlings into Crocker Lake.

Figure 4.88: Strait of Juan De Fuca MU Watershed

4.2.8.2 Management Framework

Objectives

Under the Comprehensive Coho Management Plan, eastern and western Strait of Juan de Fuca wild Coho are primary (key) , while aggregate production from the Dungeness and Elwha rivers are auxiliary (CCW 1998). Under this plan, primary are controlling units in the sense that predefined management actions will be undertaken under specified abundance conditions, auxiliary are those managed to meet or exceed a minimum escapement, and secondary units are passively managed in mixed stock fisheries.

The western portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca (west of the Sekiu River) is managed with Washington coastal populations, while the eastern portion is managed with Puget Sound populations (PFMC 2011). The Washington coastal group includes Coho Salmon inhabiting streams north of the Columbia River through the western Strait of Juan de Fuca; major populations include Willapa Bay (hatchery), Grays Harbor, Quinault (hatchery), Queets, Hoh, and Quillayute Coho Salmon. The Puget Sound group includes primary of Hood Canal, Skagit, Snohomish, Stillaguamish, South Puget Sound (hatchery), and the eastern portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca (PFMC 2011).

Management goals for Washington coastal Coho Salmon stocks (including western Strait of Juan de Fuca) include achieving natural spawning escapement objectives and treaty Indian allocation requirements (PFMC 2011). The ’s conservation objectives for stocks managed for natural production were based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY) spawner escapements established pursuant to the US District Court order in Hoh versus Baldrige (No. 81-742 [R] C). The conservation objectives for the Queets, Hoh, and Quillayute rivers were developed as ranges intended to bracket estimates of MSY escapement. The range reflects the degree of uncertainty inherent by using the high estimate of recruits-per-spawner and the low estimate of carrying capacity for the lower bound, and the low estimate of recruits-per-spawner and the high estimate of smolt carrying capacity for the upper end of the range. The ranges were further adjusted upward by 26-184% for risk aversion and habitat considerations. However, annual natural spawning escapement targets may vary from the Fishery Management Plan (FMP) conservation objectives if agreed to by WDFW and the treaty Indian tribes under the provisions of Hoh versus Baldrige and subsequent US District Court orders. After an annual agreement is reached, ocean fishery escapement objectives are established for each river, or region of origin. The agreement includes provisions for treaty Indian allocation requirements and inside non-Indian fishery needs.

For the eastern portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca , the ’s conservation objectives are based on the Puget Sound Salmon Management Plan, which define management objectives and long-term goals for these stocks as developed by representatives from Federal, state, and tribal agencies (PFMC 2011). Conservation objectives for specific stocks are based on either maximum sustainable production for stocks managed primarily for natural production or on hatchery escapement needs for stocks managed for artificial production. The original conservation objectives were developed by a State/Tribal Management Plan Development Team following the Boldt Decision with the goal for natural spawning stocks defined as “the adult spawning population that will, on the average, maximize biomass of juvenile outmigrants subsequent to incubation and freshwater rearing under average environmental conditions”. The method used to develop the objectives was based on assessment of the quantity and quality of rearing habitat and the number of adult spawners required to fully seed the habitat. Some objectives have subsequently been modified by the US District Court Fisheries Advisory Board and later determinations of the WDFW/Tribal Technical Committee. However, annual natural management objectives may vary from the FMP conservation objectives if agreed to by WDFW and the treaty Indian tribes under the provisions of US versus Washington (384 F. Supp. 312 [W.D. Wash. 1974]) and subsequent US District Court orders.

In 2009, the adopted annual management objectives for Puget Sound Coho Salmon as recommended by WDFW and tribal co-managers under provisions of US versus Washington. The annual objectives were based on the categorical status and associated maximum limits. The formally adopted management objectives for Puget Sound Coho Salmon in November 2009, which were consistent with objectives, and in 2010 it replaced the longstanding FMP spawning escapement objectives. The current / reference points for the Strait of Juan de Fuca natural Coho Salmon population are provided below.

Table 4.34: Current Strait of Juan de Fuca ocean abundance reference breakpoints and maximum total by and status categories.
Status(/) Ocean Abundance
Breakpoint
Total Exploitation Rate
Low/Critical < 11,680 Up to 20%
Moderate/Low 11,680 – 27,445 21% – 40%
Abundant/Normal > 27,445 41% – 60%

Queets River natural Coho Salmon, Strait of Juan de Fuca natural Coho Salmon, and Snohomish River natural Coho Salmon were found to meet the criteria for being classified as overfished in the PFMC Review of 2017 Ocean Salmon Fisheries, released in February 2018. Strait of Juan de Fuca natural Coho Salmon have met the criteria for not overfished/rebuilding status (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2023a).

Stock Assessment
Indicator Stocks

Wild stock tagging within this was only implemented on small numbers of Coho Salmon for broods 1984 through 1987 Figure 4.89; therfore, long-term indicators within this are limited to the Dungeness and Lower Elwha hatchery stocks. Approximately 69,000 tagged and clipped fish have been released from the Dungeness Hatchery in 14 years of the years since brood 1983. Beginning in 1985, the Lower Elwha Hatchery has released 90,000 clipped and tagged Coho Salmon smolts annually. A program was implemented there with brood 1995 and approximately 75,000 tagged and unclipped have been released annually in most years.

Figure 4.89: Number of wild fish caught, tagged, and released by clip status, within the Strait of Juan de Fuca MU over brood years 1983 through 2020.
Figure 4.90: Total number of coded-wire-tagged hatchery coho Salmon released, by clip status, within the Strait of Juan de Fuca MU for brood years 1983 through 2020.
Forecast Methods
Figure 4.91: Estimated number of Strait of Juan de Fuca MU wild Coho Salmon smolts outmigrants, years 1990 through 2022
Figure 4.92: Estimated marine survival rates for Strait of Juan de Fuca Coho Salmon, (data provided by M. Litz, WDFW).

Most Recent Abundance Forecast and Methods

This information is available in the ’s 2024 Preseason Report 1 (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2024c) and (Litz 2024).

The 2024 Strait of Juan de Fuca abundance forecast is 19,690, resulting in a classification of the stock abundance as “Moderate” under the 2019 and “Low” under the . This results in an allowable total of no more than 40%.

This forecast includes both Eastern and Western Strait of Juan de Fuca drainages. ocean recruits were predicted as the product of the estimated 2023 Coho Salmon smolt outmigration from all independent tributaries of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and a predicted marine survival rate of 7.15%. The marine survival rate was predicted by an r-square-weighted average of two linear regression models using the southern copepod biomass anomaly and the Pacific decadal oscillation index (PDO) from May through September, both during the year of smolt outmigration. The linear relationships that these models solved for have r-square values of 0.34 and 0.33, respectively.

Escapement Monitoring
Fishery Monitoring
Enhancement

Hatchery production within this has averaged 1.3 million Coho Salmon released annually over broods 1983 through 2020. Most of this production has been split between the Dungeness (50%) and the Lower Elwha Hatchery (44%). Approximately 673,000 Coho Salmon have been released annually from the Dungeness Hatchery over this period with another 626,000 released annually from the Lower Elwha Hatchery beginning with brood 1985. Mass marking of hatchery fish began with brood 1995 at the Lower Elwha Hatchery and with brood 1996 at the Dungeness Hatchery, averaging 1.1 million annually in total in recent years (Figure 4.47) (Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission 1977).

Figure 4.93: Hatchery production of Coho Salmon released within the Strait of Juan de Fuca , brood years 1983 through 2020.

4.2.8.3 Management Performance

Forecast Evaluation
Figure 4.94: Comparison of preseason abundance predictions with the post-season estimates for the Strait of Juan de Fuca MU.
Fishery Mortality and Escapement

The base period for the FRAM defines the temporal and spatial distributions of salmon fishing mortalities from each . The current FRAM base period for Coho Salmon includes catch years 1986-1992. During this period, fishing effort, tagging, and fishery sampling of Coho Salmon was high, allowing relatively fine-scale discrimination between salmon distributions. Coded-wire-tag codes used during the base period for the Strait of Juan de Fuca are provided in the Appendix and average base period by individual fisheries are listed below.

Table 4.35: Strait of Juan de Fuca MU average annual (total) and time period specific ERs used in the current FRAM base period.
Fishery Jan-Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct-Dec Total
KMZ Sport 0.01% - - - - 0.01%
KMZ Troll 0.04% - - - - 0.04%
Brookings Sport 0.00% 0.03% - - - 0.03%
Brookings Troll 0.00% - 0.00% 0.00% - 0.01%
Newport Sport 0.00% 0.11% 0.11% 0.17% - 0.39%
Newport Troll 0.14% 0.23% 0.01% 0.01% - 0.39%
Coos Bay Sport 0.03% 0.06% 0.02% - - 0.11%
Coos Bay Troll 0.00% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% - 0.06%
Tillamook Sport 0.00% 0.06% 0.00% - - 0.07%
Tillamook Troll 0.02% 0.55% 0.28% 0.03% - 0.87%
Col. Rvr. Buoy 10 Sport - - 0.06% - - 0.06%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Sport - 0.15% 0.08% - - 0.23%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Troll 0.01% 0.14% 0.10% 0.04% - 0.28%
WA Area 2 Non-Treaty Troll 0.01% 0.10% 0.04% 0.00% - 0.15%
WA Area 2 Treaty Troll 0.01% 0.25% 0.04% 0.00% - 0.30%
WA Area 2 Sport 0.06% 0.34% 0.20% - - 0.60%
WA Area 3 Non-Treaty Troll - 0.00% 0.04% 0.06% - 0.10%
WA Area 3 Treaty Troll - 0.02% 0.15% 0.10% - 0.27%
WA Area 3 Sport - 0.00% 0.03% - - 0.03%
WA Area 4 Sport - 0.12% 0.13% 0.03% - 0.28%
WA Area 4/4B Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.03% 0.42% 0.08% - 0.53%
WA Area 4/4B Treaty Troll 0.08% 0.41% 0.73% 0.29% - 1.52%
WA Area 5-6-6C Troll - 0.00% 0.01% 0.14% 0.11% 0.26%
Grays Harbor Estuary Net - - - - 0.00% 0.00%
Hoh R Net - - - - 0.00% 0.00%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.08% 0.14%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Treaty Net - 0.05% 0.29% 0.55% 7.96% 8.85%
West JDF Straits Trib Net - - - - 0.59% 0.59%
WA Area 7-7A Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.07% 0.12%
WA Area 7-7A Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.01% 0.08% 0.13% 0.22%
West JDF Straits Trib Sport - - - - 0.10% 0.10%
WA Area 5 Sport (Sekiu) 0.18% 0.47% 1.45% 4.10% 1.17% 7.38%
WA Area 6 Sport (Port Angeles) 0.00% 0.21% 0.29% 1.24% 0.59% 2.34%
WA Area 7 Sport (San Juan Islands) 0.00% - - - - 0.00%
WA Area 9 Sport (Admirality Inlet) - - 0.01% 0.07% 0.02% 0.10%
WA Area 8A Non-Treaty Net - - - - 0.03% 0.03%
WA Area 8A Treaty Net - - - - 0.04% 0.04%
WA Area 10 Sport (Seattle) - - - 0.01% 0.06% 0.08%
WA Area 10 Non-Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.17% 0.24% 0.41%
WA Area 10 Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.10% 0.14% 0.24%
WA Area 10E Non-Treaty Net (East Kitsap) - - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
WA Area 10E Treaty Net (East Kitsap) - - - 0.00% 0.02% 0.03%
WA Area 11 Non-Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.01% 0.11% 0.11%
WA Area 11 Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Non-Treaty Net - - - - 0.09% 0.09%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Treaty Net - - - - 0.11% 0.11%
Area 9/9A Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Area 9/9A Treaty Net (On Res) - - - 0.04% 0.14% 0.18%
BC Northern Troll - 0.06% 0.14% - - 0.20%
BC North Central Troll - 0.01% 0.08% - - 0.09%
BC South Central Troll 0.12% 0.71% 0.39% 0.21% - 1.44%
NW Vancouver Island Troll 0.44% 5.64% 3.84% 2.25% - 12.17%
SW Vancouver Island Troll 0.92% 14.20% 10.32% 2.88% - 28.31%
Georgia Straits Troll - 0.03% - - - 0.03%
BC Northern Net - 0.04% 0.05% - - 0.08%
BC Central Net - - - 0.04% - 0.04%
SW Vancouver Island Net - - - 0.15% 0.08% 0.23%
Johnstone Straits Net - 0.01% 0.03% 0.08% 0.08% 0.20%
Georgia Straits Net - - - - 0.00% 0.00%
BC Juan de Fuca Net - 0.17% 2.30% 1.52% 0.08% 4.07%
Johnstone Strait Sport - 0.00% 0.08% - - 0.09%
BC Northern Sport - - - 0.00% - 0.00%
BC Juan de Fuca Sport 0.01% 0.52% 0.25% 0.46% 0.30% 1.54%
West Coast Vanc Is Sport - 0.09% 0.04% 0.00% - 0.13%
North Georgia Straits Sport 0.05% 0.11% 0.04% - 0.00% 0.20%
South Georgia Straits Sport 0.01% - - - - 0.01%
SEAK Southwest Troll - - 0.03% 0.04% - 0.07%
SEAK Northwest Troll - 0.04% 0.19% 0.08% - 0.31%
Southeast Alaska Net - - 0.11% - - 0.11%
Figure 4.95: Post-season estimates of fishery mortality for the Strait of Juan de Fuca by mark-selective (MSF) and non-selective (NS) fisheries over catch years 1998 through 2021. These estimates are combined US and Canadian harvest impacts.
Table 4.36: Historical summary of annual total abundance (January age-3 without natural mortality), adult escapement, marine survival, and (ER) of the Strait of Juan de Fuca Management Unit; since 2004.
catch_year abundance marine_survival escapement
ER
Canada SUS
2004 21,816 7.8% 19,756 0.7% 8.3%
2005 10,933 5.6% 10,186 1.5% 5.0%
2006 4,184 1.5% 3,802 1.6% 7.3%
2007 8,613 2.4% 7,528 2.5% 9.6%
2008 3,487 0.9% 3,179 1.0% 7.4%
2009 16,743 8.2% 14,199 1.0% 13.8%
2010 20,053 8.4% 18,417 0.5% 7.3%
2011 11,715 4.6% 10,731 2.1% 5.8%
2012 12,534 4.0% 11,020 1.7% 10.1%
2013 9,800 5.4% 8,459 2.9% 10.1%
2014 13,811 3.5% 11,487 4.6% 11.5%
2015 4,711 1.4% 3,860 3.7% 14.0%
2016 8,692 3.9% 8,435 0.8% 1.7%
2017 5,856 2.1% 5,530 1.3% 3.9%
2018 5,939 3.2% 5,470 2.7% 4.8%
2019 5,258 2.4% 4,625 3.1% 8.5%
2020 9,200 3.7% 8,548 2.7% 4.1%
2021 22,440 7.0% 20,837 2.5% 4.3%
2022 18,396 10.3% 16,975 2.1% 5.3%
Figure 4.96: Total exploitation rate (A) and escapement (B) of Strait of Juan de Fuca MU by country, catch years 1986 through 2022. Dashed line indicates escapement goal for the Strait of Juan de Fuca MU (Need esc goal for SJF 30,000 individuals).
Historical Overview of Status of Management Unit
Figure 4.97: Strait of Juan De Fuca post-season estimates of ocean age-3 abundances, escapement, and harvest for catch years 2004 through 2022. The graphs include dashed trend lines and the vertical dotted lines highlight catch year 2010)
Figure 4.98: Strait of Juan de Fuca pre- and post-season abundance status for catch years 2004 through 2021
Table 4.37: Preseason and post-season abundance estimates for Strait of Juan de Fuca from 2004 onwards.
catch_year abund_preseason abund_postseason
2004 35,883.8 21,816.5
2005 20,747.2 10,932.6
2006 26,208.1 4,183.7
2007 30,033.1 8,612.6
2008 24,276.1 3,486.7
2009 20,542.7 16,743.0
2010 8,493.2 20,053.2
2011 12,355.8 11,714.8
2012 12,670.9 12,534.1
2013 12,602.7 9,800.1
2014 12,588.5 13,811.5
2015 11,168.8 4,710.8
2016 4,434.0 8,692.2
2017 13,081.1 5,855.9
2018 7,182.9 5,939.3
2019 8,825.5 5,257.8
2020 7,547.2 9,200.2
2021 6,702.5 22,439.9
2022 7,318.7 18,396.1
2023 15,676.8 NA
2024 22,134.5 NA

4.2.9 Quillayute

This description was prepared by U.S. members of the Coho Technical Committee.

Note that Quillayute and Queets values are those from the FRAM database and have not yet been extracted from the relevant TAMM cells for each year

4.2.9.1 Biological and Geographic Description

The Quillayute consists of naturally-produced fall run Coho Salmon in the Quillayute River basin and its tributaries (Dickey, Sol Duc, Sitkum, Calawah, and Bogachiel rivers) (Figure 4.99). The Quillayute River has two unique populations of Coho Salmon, a summer run and a fall run (Haymes 2008). The summer Coho Salmon run has a peak river entry from the last week of August to the first week of September. The fall Coho Salmon run has a run timing typical of other coastal Coho Salmon populations, with peak river entry in mid-October. There is a hatchery and natural-origin production component to each population. The Quillayute River consists of the natural-origin fall run. Quillayute Coho Salmon belong to the Olympic Peninsula evolutionarily significant unit (ESU) (Weitkamp et al. 1995). This ESU was deemed “not warranted” for listing under the US Endangered Species Act (Ford 2011).

The Quillayute consists of five primary tributaries and numerous smaller tributaries that join to form the Quillayute River (Haymes 2008; Hunter 2006). The Quillayute River has a short mainstem of 5.5 river miles (RM). At RM 5 the Bogachiel and Sol Duc river systems combine to form the Quillayute. The upper reaches of the Sol Duc, Calawah, and Bogachiel rivers originate inside the Olympic National Park, draining the northwest and western slopes of the Olympic Mountains. These tributaries flow westward to converge and enter the Pacific Ocean at the town of La Push. The Dickey River drains the coastal hills to the north of the Quillayute River, flowing southward to join the lower mainstem Quillayute one mile from the Pacific Ocean near the town of La Push.

The Quillayute system drains over 825 mi2 (Hunter 2006). The basin is primarily rain-fed, with the exception of some snowmelt input into the upper Sol Duc, Bogachiel, and Calawah sub-basins during the winter and spring. Rainfall is high, exceeding 100 inches [254 cm] in the lower valley, and 150+ inches [381+ cm] in upper reaches of the basin.

The estuary, like other north coastal rivers is minimal in size, essentially consisting of a one mile stretch of river channel that is subject to tidal exchange, draining directly into the open Pacific Ocean.

The Olympic National Park owns the largest percentage of the coastal lands and the very highest reaches of the Olympic Mountains (Hunter 2006). This includes the headwaters of the upper Sol Duc, Calawah, Sitkum and Bogachiel Rivers. Land use outside of the park is largely dominated by timber production. The US Forest Service (USFS) manages the lands downstream of the Park (middle altitudes). Private timber and state lands are downstream from the USFS holdings. The basin is relatively lightly populated. The City of Forks is the only incorporated city and a few small towns exist, the towns of Beaver, Sappho, and La Push.

Figure 4.99: Quillayute MU Watershed

4.2.9.2 Management Framework

Objectives

The Quillayute is managed together with other Washington coastal populations, which include all natural and hatchery stocks originating in Washington coastal streams north of the Columbia River to the western Strait of Juan de Fuca (west of the Sekiu River) (PFMC 2013a). Management goals for Washington coastal Coho Salmon stocks include achieving natural spawning escapement objectives and treaty Indian allocation requirements (PFMC 2013a).

’s conservation objectives for stocks managed for natural production were based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY) spawner escapements established pursuant to the US District Court order in Hoh versus Baldrige (No. 81-742 [R] C). When the adopted Amendment 16 to the Salmon FMP in 2011 (76 FR 81852, December 29, 2011), it brought the Salmon Fishery Management Plan (FMP) into compliance with the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSA) as amended in 2007, and the corresponding revised National Standard 1 Guidelines’ (NS1Gs) mandate to end and prevent overfishing. In doing so, the adopted new status determination criteria (SDC) for overfishing, approaching an overfished condition, overfished, not overfished/rebuilding, and rebuilt under FMP Amendment 16. The PFMC also adopted corresponding maximum fishing mortality thresholds, which are based on the maximum sustainable yield . Status determinations for overfishing, overfished, not overfished/rebuilding, and rebuilt were reported in the annual SAFE document, Review of 2012 Ocean Salmon Fisheries (PFMC 2013b). Amendment 16 also added to the FMP “de minimis” fishing provisions that allow for low levels of fishing impacts on specified stocks that are at low levels of abundance.

The conservation objectives for the Queets, Hoh, and Quillayute rivers were developed as ranges intended to bracket estimates of MSY escapement. For The Quillayute , management objectives are expressed as a range of spawning escapements expected to produce MSY. Allowable are calculated from the forecast abundance and the lower end of the escapement range and used to classify the categorical status of the . This rate is the maximum allowed under the when the is in the moderate or abundant status, but up to 20% are allowed if the is in the low abundance status. The range reflects inherent uncertainty by using the high estimate of recruits-per-spawner and the low estimate of carrying capacity for the lower bound, and the low estimate of recruits-per-spawner and the high estimate of smolt carrying capacity for the upper end of the range. The ranges were further adjusted upward by 26-184% for risk aversion and habitat considerations. However, annual natural spawning escapement targets may vary from the FMP conservation objectives if agreed to by WDFW and the treaty Indian tribes under the provisions of Hoh versus Baldrige and subsequent US District Court orders. After an annual agreement is reached, ocean fishery escapement objectives are established for each river, or region of origin. The agreement includes provisions for treaty Indian allocation requirements and inside non-Indian fishery needs. Agreements on annual spawning targets for Washington coastal Coho Salmon other than those in the FMP are not made every year (PFMC 2013b).

For US “outside” , total ceiling for the natural fall Coho Salmon population is defined as the maximum rate that will meet the minimum escapement goal of 6,300, when applied to the preseason ocean abundance forecast (Haymes 2008). For the 2009 return, for example, Quillayute fall Coho Salmon Salmon ocean abundance of age-3 fish was forecast as 19,261 fish or in the “abundant” category. Therefore, ocean abundance (19,261) minus the minimum escapement goal (6,300) is 12,961 fish available to harvest, or 67.3% of the preseason forecast (12,961÷19,261 = 0.673). The current PST/ ceilings for the Quillayute Coho Salmon population are provided below.

There is no management objective for the summer Coho Salmon run. The Quillayute is currently managed in US fisheries for a natural fall Coho Salmon escapement goal range of 6,300 to 15,800 adult spawners, and annual egg-take objectives for summer and fall Coho Salmon at Sol Duc Hatchery.

Table 4.38: Current Qullayute ocean abundance reference breakpoints and maximum total by and status categories.
Status(/) Ocean Abundance
Reference Breakpoint
Total Exploitation Rate
Low/Critical < 7,875 Up to 20%
Moderate/Low 7,875 – 10,500 21% – 40%
Abundant/Normal > 10,500 > 40% (footnote)

footnote - Limit of 59% (maximum fishery mortality threshold) under Amendment 16 (see Appendix E of The Ad Hoc Salmon Amendment Committee 2011).

Stock Assessment
Indicator Stocks
Figure 4.100: Number of wild fish caught, tagged, and released by clip status, within the Quillayute MU over brood years 1983 through 2020.
Figure 4.101: Total number of coded-wire-tagged hatchery coho Salmon released, by clip status, within the Quillayute MU for brood years 1983 through 2020.
Forecast Methods

The estimated number of total fall smolts averaged 350,000 annually from 1995 to 2022, with a high of 655,000 in 2011 and a low of 135,000 in 1999.

Figure 4.102: Estimated number of Quillayute MU wild Coho Salmon smolts outmigrants, years 1995 through 2022

Most Recent Abundance Forecast and Methods

This information is available in the ’s 2024 Preseason Report 1 (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2024c) and (Litz 2024).

The 2024 Quillayute abundance forecast consists of summer (393 adults) and fall (10,246 adults) run components, totalling 10,639 . This forecast results in a classification of the stock abundance as “Moderate”, with a total allowable ER of 39%, under the 2019 .

This forecast is based on Coho Salmon smolt data measured in the Quillayute watershed in 2023 by West Fork Environmental and the Quileute Nation. A total of 252,000 Coho Salmon smolts are estimated to have emigrated from the Quillayute River system in 2023. Smolt abundance from the Dickey River was estimated to be 27,431 wild Coho Salmon smolts (245 smolts per square mile). Smolt abundance from the Bogachiel, Calawah, and Sol Duc rivers combined was estimated to be 164,701 wild Coho Salmon smolts (316 smolts per square mile). Total smolts were separated into summer and fall natural Coho Salmon smolts by the relative number of natural brood year 2021 spawners, 3.69% and 96.31%, respectively. Results from this separation yield estimates of 9,300 natural summer Coho Salmon smolts and 242,700 natural fall Coho Salmon smolts. The natural Coho Salmon forecast is based on the estimated total natural summer and fall Coho Salmon smolt production (252,000) and a projected marine survival rate of 5.2%.

Escapement Monitoring
Fishery Monitoring
Enhancement

A few salmon hatchery facilities exist within the basin; however, only one currently produces Coho Salmon, WDFW’s Sol Duc Hatchery on the Sol Duc River at RM 29. This facility began operating in 1970, collects adult broodstock on-site, and has egg incubation and rearing facilities. Both summer and fall stock Coho Salmon are produced at this facility and both programs are integrated harvest programs (2012 future brood document available at: http://wdfw.wa.gov/publications/01356/wdfw01356.pdf). The goals of the programs are to release 250,000 fall run smolts and 100,000 summer run smolts annually.

Figure 4.103: Hatchery production of Coho Salmon released within the Quillayute , brood years 1983 through 2020.

4.2.9.3 Management Performance

Forecast Evaluation
Figure 4.104: Comparison of preseason abundance predictions with the post-season estimates for the Quillayute MU.
Fishery Mortality and Escapement

The base period for the FRAM defines the temporal and spatial distributions of salmon fishing mortalities from each . The current FRAM base period for Coho Salmon includes catch years 1986-1992. During this period, fishing effort, tagging, and fishery sampling of Coho Salmon was high, allowing relatively fine-scale discrimination between salmon distributions. Coded-wire-tag codes used during the base period for the Quillayute are provided in the Appendix and average base period by individual fisheries are listed below.

Table 4.39: Quillayute MU average annual (total) and time period specific ERs used in the current FRAM base period.
Fishery Jan-Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct-Dec Total
Fort Bragg Sport - 0.01% 0.00% - - 0.01%
KMZ Sport 0.01% - - - - 0.01%
KMZ Troll 0.01% - - - - 0.01%
So Calif. Troll 0.01% - - - - 0.01%
Brookings Sport 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% - - 0.02%
Brookings Troll 0.00% - 0.00% - - 0.00%
Newport Sport 0.06% 0.30% 0.17% - - 0.52%
Newport Troll 0.32% 0.74% 0.28% 0.02% - 1.37%
Coos Bay Sport 0.05% 0.07% 0.04% - - 0.15%
Coos Bay Troll 0.11% 0.36% 0.14% 0.01% - 0.62%
Tillamook Sport 0.02% 0.21% 0.03% - - 0.26%
Tillamook Troll 0.04% 1.13% 0.35% 0.08% - 1.60%
Col. Rvr. Buoy 10 Sport - - 0.16% 0.06% 0.01% 0.23%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Sport - 0.23% 0.32% 0.02% - 0.57%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Troll 0.01% 0.18% 0.51% - - 0.70%
WA Area 2 Non-Treaty Troll 0.03% 0.08% 0.16% 0.06% - 0.33%
WA Area 2 Treaty Troll 0.03% 0.20% 0.13% 0.11% - 0.47%
WA Area 2 Sport - 0.50% 0.60% - - 1.09%
WA Area 3 Non-Treaty Troll 0.25% 0.03% 0.13% 0.08% - 0.48%
WA Area 3 Treaty Troll 0.33% 0.49% 0.45% 0.13% - 1.41%
WA Area 3 Sport - 0.07% 0.03% - - 0.10%
WA Area 4 Sport - 0.08% 0.22% 0.02% - 0.32%
WA Area 4/4B Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.03% 0.34% 0.03% 0.03% 0.43%
WA Area 4/4B Treaty Troll 0.14% 0.48% 0.59% 0.10% 0.19% 1.51%
WA Area 5-6-6C Troll - 0.00% 0.00% - 0.00% 0.01%
Quinault R Net - - - 0.02% - 0.02%
Queets R Net - - - - 0.01% 0.01%
Quillayute R Sport - - - - 2.91% 2.91%
Quillayute R Net - - - 7.99% 19.84% 27.82%
Quillayute R C&S - - - - 0.67% 0.67%
Hoh R Net - - - 0.07% 0.48% 0.55%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.02%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Treaty Net - 0.01% 0.06% 0.10% 0.42% 0.59%
WA Area 7-7A Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.01% - 0.01%
WA Area 7-7A Treaty Net - - - 0.01% - 0.01%
WA Area 5 Sport (Sekiu) 0.03% 0.34% 0.31% 0.25% 0.47% 1.40%
WA Area 6 Sport (Port Angeles) - - 0.02% 0.01% - 0.03%
WA Area 7 Sport (San Juan Islands) - - - 0.05% - 0.05%
Johnstone Strait Troll - - - 0.01% - 0.01%
BC Northern Troll - 0.14% 0.10% 0.13% - 0.37%
BC North Central Troll - - 0.00% 0.07% - 0.08%
BC South Central Troll 0.06% 0.34% 0.11% 0.10% - 0.61%
NW Vancouver Island Troll 0.08% 2.76% 2.99% 0.57% - 6.41%
SW Vancouver Island Troll 0.58% 7.82% 7.72% 2.77% - 18.87%
Georgia Straits Troll - 0.02% - - - 0.02%
BC Northern Net - 0.02% - - - 0.02%
SW Vancouver Island Net - - - 0.01% 0.58% 0.59%
Johnstone Straits Net - 0.04% 0.04% - - 0.08%
BC Juan de Fuca Net - 0.10% 0.69% 0.32% 0.08% 1.19%
BC Juan de Fuca Sport - 0.04% 0.17% 0.12% 0.14% 0.47%
West Coast Vanc Is Sport - 0.02% 0.01% - - 0.03%
North Georgia Straits Sport - 0.01% - - - 0.01%
SEAK Southwest Troll - 0.02% - - - 0.02%
SEAK Southeast Troll - 0.01% 0.03% - - 0.04%
SEAK Northwest Troll - 0.01% - - - 0.01%
Figure 4.105: Post-season estimates of fishery mortality for the Quillayute by mark-selective (MSF) and non-selective (NS) fisheries over catch years 1998 through 2021. These estimates are combined US and Canadian harvest impacts.
Table 4.40: Historical summary of annual total abundance (January age-3 without natural mortality), adult escapement, and (ER) of the Quillayute Management Unit; since 2004.
catch_year abundance escapement
ER
Canada SUS
2004 14,090 6,767 0.4% 51.5%
2005 20,820 11,500 0.9% 43.8%
2006 9,455 4,681 0.8% 49.7%
2007 10,672 6,162 0.9% 41.2%
2008 10,018 6,190 0.3% 37.7%
2009 12,475 3,626 0.4% 70.5%
2010 17,083 9,832 0.2% 42.2%
2011 13,348 8,067 0.8% 38.7%
2012 12,815 5,841 0.8% 53.5%
2013 15,788 7,059 1.2% 53.9%
2014 17,258 7,401 2.0% 55.1%
2015 4,800 2,538 1.3% 45.7%
2016 11,696 9,545 0.4% 17.9%
2017 12,931 7,467 0.4% 41.8%
2018 8,666 6,089 1.1% 28.6%
2019 10,905 6,848 1.0% 36.2%
2020 9,107 7,539 1.6% 15.6%
2021 11,578 11,145 1.7% 2.0%
2022 16,266 13,211 1.1% 17.7%
Figure 4.106: Total exploitation rate (A) and escapement (B) of Quillayute MU by country, catch years 1986 through 2022. Dashed line indicates escapement goal for the Quillayute MU (Need esc goal for Quillayute 30,000 individuals).
Historical Overview of Status of Management Unit
Figure 4.107: Quillayute post-season estimates of ocean age-3 abundances, escapement, and harvest for catch years 2004 through 2022. The graphs include dashed trend lines and the vertical dotted lines highlight catch year 2010)
Figure 4.108: Quillayute pre- and post-season abundance status for catch years 2004 through 2021
Table 4.41: Preseason and post-season abundance estimates for Quillayute from 2004 onwards.
catch_year abund_preseason abund_postseason
2004 21,377.6 14,090.2
2005 18,667.1 20,820.5
2006 14,702.3 9,455.2
2007 10,877.9 10,672.4
2008 10,588.1 10,017.5
2009 19,355.9 12,475.2
2010 22,156.2 17,082.7
2011 28,308.0 13,347.5
2012 33,702.7 12,814.9
2013 17,296.3 15,787.8
2014 18,484.8 17,258.0
2015 10,537.3 4,799.6
2016 4,481.9 11,695.6
2017 15,882.1 12,931.5
2018 10,581.5 8,666.3
2019 14,790.3 10,905.5
2020 9,189.5 9,106.8
2021 7,560.9 11,577.7
2022 12,524.8 16,266.1
2023 13,524.2 NA
2024 10,279.2 NA

4.2.10 Hoh

This description was prepared by U.S. members of the Coho Technical Committee.

4.2.10.1 Biological and Geographic Description

The Hoh consists of the Hoh River basin and consists of a single population of Coho Salmon occupying the Riverbasin. This belongs to the Olympic Peninsula evolutionarily significant unit (ESU) (Weitkamp et al. 1995). It was deemed “not warranted” for listing under the US Endangered Species Act (NOAA 2009).

The freshwater habitat of the includes the mainstem Hoh river and numerous tributaries, with a total basin area of 299 mi2 (774 km2) (Haymes 2008). The Hoh River originates in the center of the Olympic Mountains and flows westward, entering the Pacific Ocean at the Hoh Indian Reservation. The main Hoh River channel is glacially fed, originating from glacier fields on Mt. Olympus. The tributaries are largely rainwater fed. Annual rainfall is high, exceeding 100 inches [254 cm] in the lower valley, and 150+ inches [381+ cm] in upper reaches of the basin.

The estuary, like other north Olympic Peninsula coastal rivers is quite small, and essentially consists of a short stretch of river channel that is subject to tidal exchange, and enters the Pacific Ocean directly.

The upper basin is located within Olympic National Park. Land use outside of Olympic National Park is largely dominated by timber production. The is lightly populated, with the Hoh Indian Reservation community located at the mouth of the Hoh River, and scattered farms and residential development located in the lower and mid valley.

Figure 4.109: Hoh MU Watershed

4.2.10.2 Management Framework

Objectives

The Hoh is managed with together with other Washington coastal populations, which include all natural and hatchery stocks originating in Washington coastal streams north of the Columbia River to the western Strait of Juan de Fuca (PFMC 2011). Management goals for Washington coastal Coho Salmon stocks include achieving natural spawning escapement objectives and treaty Indian allocation requirements (PFMC 2011).

Management goals for Washington coastal Coho Salmon stocks include achieving natural spawning escapement objectives and treaty Indian allocation requirements (PFMC 2011). The ’s conservation objectives for stocks managed for natural production were based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY) spawner escapements established pursuant to the US District Court order in Hoh versus Baldrige. The conservation objectives for the Queets, Hoh, and Quillayute Rivers were developed as ranges intended to bracket estimates of MSY escapement. The range reflects inherent uncertainty by using the high estimate of recruits-per-spawner and the low estimate of carrying capacity for the lower bound, and the low estimate of recruits-per-spawner and the high estimate of smolt carrying capacity for the upper end of the range. The ranges were further adjusted upward by 26-184% for risk aversion and habitat considerations. However, annual natural spawning escapement targets may vary from the Fishery Management Plan (FMP) conservation objectives if agreed to by WDFW and the treaty Indian tribes under the provisions of Hoh versus Baldrige and subsequent US District Court orders. After an annual agreement is reached, ocean fishery escapement objectives are established for each river, or region of origin. The agreement includes provisions for treaty Indian allocation requirements and inside non-Indian fishery needs. Agreements on annual spawning targets for Washington coastal Coho Salmon other than those in the FMP are not made every year (PFMC 2011).

The current total ceiling for the natural Coho Salmon population is defined as the maximum rate that will meet the minimum escapement goal of 2,000 when applied to the pre-season ocean abundance forecast (Haymes 2008). The basin is currently managed in US fisheries for a natural fall Coho Salmon escapement goal range of 2,000 to 5,000. The current ceilings for the Hoh Coho Salmon population are listed below.

Table 4.42: Current Hoh ocean abundance reference breakpoints and maximum total by and status categories.
Status(/) Ocean Abundance
Reference Breakpoint
Total Exploitation Rate
Low/Critical < 2,500 Up to 20%
Moderate/Low 2,500 – 3,333 21% – 35%
Abundant/Normal > 3,333 36% – 60%
Stock Assessment
Indicator Stocks
Figure 4.110: Number of wild fish caught, tagged, and released by clip status, within the Hoh MU over brood years 1983 through 2020.
Figure 4.111: Total number of coded-wire-tagged hatchery coho Salmon released, by clip status, within the Hoh MU for brood years 1983 through 2020.
Forecast Methods

The estimated number of total smolts averaged 162,000 annually from 2000 to 2022, with a high of 286,000 in 2011 and a low of 69,000 in 2015.

Figure 4.112: Estimated number of Hoh MU wild Coho Salmon smolts outmigrants, years 1995 through 2022

Most Recent Abundance Forecast and Methods

This information is available in the ’s 2024 Preseason Report 1 (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2024c) and (Litz 2024).

The 2024 Hoh abundance forecast is 4,870, resulting in a classification of the stock status as “Abundant”, with a total allowable ER of 59%, under the 2019 .

This forecast is based on estimated average natural smolt production per square mile of watershed from the Clearwater River tributary which lies between the Queets River mainstem and the Hoh River. The Quinault Fisheries Department has a long-standing trapping program on the Clearwater River to estimate smolt production; it is assumed the two rivers produce smolts at a comparable rate per square mile of watershed. In 2023, the Clearwater produced 51,620 smolts at the rate of 369 smolts per mile. Applying that rate to the Hoh watershed of 299 square miles yields 110,331 natural Coho Salmon smolts emigrating from the Hoh River in 2023.

A marine survival estimate to of 5.44% was applied to the total natural smolt production estimate to predict the 2024 return of Hoh River natural Coho Salmon. This rate is the mean of two marine survival estimates of wild stocks that are to the north and south of the Hoh River: the Queets wild Coho Salmon to the south with a marine survival estimate of 7.69% and Washington Coast wild Coho Salmon stocks with a marine survival estimate of 3.20% . The average marine survival rate of 5.44% (4.41% ) is within 2% of the survival of 3.2% predicted in 2024 for other Washington Coast Coho Salmon stocks (Litz 2024).

Escapement Monitoring
Fishery Monitoring
Enhancement

There is currently no hatchery Coho Salmon production present in the . The Chalaat Creek Hatchery is run by the Hoh Indian Tribe and formerly produced Coho Salmon. There have been periodic releases of hatchery Coho Salmon from other coastal basins.

Figure 4.113: Hatchery production of Coho Salmon released within the Hoh , brood years 1983 through 2020.

4.2.10.3 Management Performance

Forecast Evaluation
Figure 4.114: Comparison of preseason abundance predictions with the post-season estimates for the Hoh MU.
Fishery Mortality and Escapement

The base period for the FRAM defines the temporal and spatial distributions of salmon fishing mortalities from each . The current FRAM base period for Coho Salmon includes catch years 1986-1992. During this period, fishing effort, tagging, and fishery sampling of Coho Salmon was high, allowing relatively fine-scale discrimination between salmon distributions. Coded-wire-tag codes used during the base period for the Hoh are provided in the Appendix and average base period by individual fisheries are listed below.

Table 4.43: Hoh MU average annual (total) and time period specific ERs used in the current FRAM base period.
Fishery Jan-Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct-Dec Total
Brookings Troll 0.02% - - - - 0.02%
Newport Sport 0.04% 0.52% 0.33% 0.10% - 0.99%
Newport Troll 0.18% 2.16% 0.74% 0.11% - 3.19%
Coos Bay Sport - 0.24% 0.15% 0.05% - 0.44%
Coos Bay Troll 0.10% 0.37% 0.17% 0.03% - 0.66%
Tillamook Sport - 0.10% 0.40% - - 0.50%
Tillamook Troll 0.07% 1.46% 0.49% 0.13% - 2.15%
Col. Rvr. Buoy 10 Sport - 0.11% 0.28% 0.07% - 0.47%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Sport 0.09% 0.39% 0.34% 0.10% - 0.92%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Troll 0.03% 0.28% 0.96% 0.22% - 1.49%
WA Area 2 Non-Treaty Troll 0.03% 0.17% 0.48% 0.12% - 0.80%
WA Area 2 Treaty Troll 0.03% 0.42% 0.41% 0.22% - 1.08%
WA Area 2 Sport 0.07% 0.55% 1.88% 0.83% - 3.33%
WA Area 3 Non-Treaty Troll 0.11% 0.01% 0.28% 0.41% - 0.82%
WA Area 3 Treaty Troll 0.15% 0.27% 1.01% 0.72% - 2.16%
WA Area 3 Sport - 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% - 0.23%
WA Area 4 Sport - 0.13% 0.58% 0.06% - 0.77%
WA Area 4/4B Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.08% 0.73% 0.17% - 0.99%
WA Area 4/4B Treaty Troll 0.27% 1.31% 1.26% 0.64% - 3.48%
WA Area 5-6-6C Troll - - 0.00% - 0.32% 0.32%
Grays Harbor Estuary Net - - - - 0.06% 0.06%
Quinault R Net - - - - 0.25% 0.25%
Queets R Net - - - 0.13% 0.39% 0.51%
Hoh R Sport - - - - 2.37% 2.37%
Hoh R Net - - - 1.33% 29.66% 30.99%
Hoh R C&S - - - - 0.45% 0.45%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Treaty Net - 0.01% 0.07% 0.03% 1.34% 1.45%
WA Area 5 Sport (Sekiu) - 0.04% 1.03% 0.60% 0.46% 2.13%
WA Area 6 Sport (Port Angeles) - - - 0.17% 0.19% 0.36%
WA Area 10 Non-Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.01% - 0.01%
WA Area 10 Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.01% - 0.01%
WA Area 11 Sport (Tacoma) - - - 0.04% - 0.04%
Johnstone Strait Troll - - 0.01% - - 0.01%
BC Northern Troll - 0.18% 0.55% 0.07% - 0.80%
BC North Central Troll - 0.51% 0.09% - - 0.60%
BC South Central Troll - 0.20% 0.09% 0.38% - 0.67%
NW Vancouver Island Troll 0.25% 5.88% 5.01% 2.47% - 13.61%
SW Vancouver Island Troll 0.19% 9.62% 13.18% 5.59% - 28.59%
Georgia Straits Troll - - 0.11% - - 0.11%
BC Northern Net - 0.10% - - - 0.10%
SW Vancouver Island Net - - - - 0.11% 0.11%
Johnstone Straits Net - - 0.13% - 0.05% 0.18%
BC Juan de Fuca Net 0.03% 0.04% 0.58% 0.28% - 0.93%
Johnstone Strait Sport - 0.08% 0.04% - - 0.12%
BC Juan de Fuca Sport - - 0.08% 0.29% - 0.36%
West Coast Vanc Is Sport - - 0.24% - - 0.24%
North Georgia Straits Sport - - - 0.12% - 0.12%
SEAK Northwest Troll - 0.08% 0.12% - - 0.20%
Southeast Alaska Net - - 0.17% - - 0.17%
Figure 4.115: Post-season estimates of fishery mortality for the Hoh by mark-selective (MSF) and non-selective (NS) fisheries over catch years 1998 through 2021. These estimates are combined US and Canadian harvest impacts.
Table 4.44: Historical summary of annual total abundance (January age-3 without natural mortality), adult escapement, and (ER) of the Hoh Management Unit; since 2004.
catch_year abundance escapement
ER
Canada SUS
2004 14,090 6,767 0.4% 51.5%
2005 20,820 11,500 0.9% 43.8%
2006 9,455 4,681 0.8% 49.7%
2007 10,672 6,162 0.9% 41.2%
2008 10,018 6,190 0.3% 37.7%
2009 12,475 3,626 0.4% 70.5%
2010 17,083 9,832 0.2% 42.2%
2011 13,348 8,067 0.8% 38.7%
2012 12,815 5,841 0.8% 53.5%
2013 15,788 7,059 1.2% 53.9%
2014 17,258 7,401 2.0% 55.1%
2015 4,800 2,538 1.3% 45.7%
2016 11,696 9,545 0.4% 17.9%
2017 12,931 7,467 0.4% 41.8%
2018 8,666 6,089 1.1% 28.6%
2019 10,905 6,848 1.0% 36.2%
2020 9,107 7,539 1.6% 15.6%
2021 11,578 11,145 1.7% 2.0%
2022 16,266 13,211 1.1% 17.7%
Figure 4.116: Total exploitation rate (A) and escapement (B) of Hoh MU by country, catch years 1986 through 2022. Dashed line indicates escapement goal for the Hoh MU (Need esc goal for Hoh 30,000 individuals).
Historical Overview of Status of Management Unit
Figure 4.117: Hoh post-season estimates of ocean age-3 abundances, escapement, and harvest for catch years 2004 through 2022. The graphs include dashed trend lines and the vertical dotted lines highlight catch year 2010)
Figure 4.118: Hoh pre- and post-season abundance status for catch years 2004 through 2021
Table 4.45: Preseason and post-season abundance estimates for Hoh from 2004 onwards.
catch_year abund_preseason abund_postseason
2004 8,159.2 5,366.2
2005 7,656.1 8,217.0
2006 6,418.9 2,063.8
2007 5,434.3 4,903.6
2008 4,383.5 3,969.7
2009 9,563.7 12,023.3
2010 7,657.5 11,375.4
2011 11,690.8 12,978.1
2012 14,414.6 8,088.8
2013 8,662.0 9,151.9
2014 9,009.0 9,136.2
2015 5,159.1 2,927.7
2016 2,073.7 5,417.2
2017 6,223.1 6,043.8
2018 5,841.0 3,739.1
2019 7,012.4 5,157.1
2020 4,183.1 5,385.7
2021 3,030.9 7,789.6
2022 4,712.0 11,686.3
2023 6,575.6 NA
2024 4,900.8 NA

4.2.11 Queets

This description was prepared by U.S. members of the Coho Technical Committee.

Note that Quillayute and Queets values are those from the FRAM database and have not yet been extracted from the relevant TAMM cells for each year

4.2.11.1 Biological and Geographic Description

The Queets consists of a single population of Coho Salmon occupying the Queets River and its major tributary, the Clearwater River. This belongs to the Olympic Peninsula evolutionarily significant unit (ESU) (Weitkamp et al. 1995). It was deemed “not warranted” for listing under the US Endangered Species Act (NOAA 2009).

The freshwater habitat of the consists of a large glacially influenced main river channel (Queets River), a moderate sized rain-fed tributary (Clearwater River), and numerous smaller rain-fed tributaries (Haymes 2008). The Queets River originates in the center of the Olympic Mountains, and flows westward, entering the Pacific Ocean at the northern end of the Quinault Indian Reservation. The Clearwater River originates in the Olympic Mountain foothills to the north of the Queets River and flows southward to the Queets at RM 6.7 from the estuary. Rainfall is high in the , ranging from 100 to 200 inches [254 to 508 cm] a year.

The estuary, like other north Olympic Peninsula coastal rivers is quite small, consisting of a short stretch of river channel that is subject to tidal exchange and enters the Pacific Ocean directly.

Much of the land base in the is managed for commercial timber production, though a thin (1-5 mile wide) strip of Olympic National Park land encompasses the floodplain in the middle reach of the river (Haymes 2008). The upper reach of the river is contained entirely inside of the Olympic National Park, and originates from glacier fields on Mount Olympus. Human development is very limited in this . One small community (Queets) is located adjacent to the river, at the Highway 101 bridge crossing. The river downstream of the Clearwater Road bridge crossing at RM 6.5 [KM 10.5] is within the boundary of the Quinault Reservation.

Figure 4.119: Queets MU Watershed

4.2.11.2 Management Framework

Objectives

The Queets is managed together with other Washington coastal populations, which include all natural and hatchery stocks originating in Washington coastal streams north of the Columbia River to the western Strait of Juan de Fuca (PFMC 2011). Management goals for Washington coastal Coho Salmon stocks include achieving natural spawning escapement objectives and treaty Indian allocation requirements (PFMC 2011).

Management goals for Washington coastal Coho Salmon stocks include achieving natural spawning escapement objectives and treaty Indian allocation requirements (PFMC 2011). The ’s conservation objectives for stocks managed for natural production were based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY) spawner escapements established pursuant to the US District Court order in Hoh versus Baldrige. The conservation objectives for the Queets, Hoh, and Quillayute rivers were developed as ranges intended to bracket estimates of MSY escapement. The range reflects inherent uncertainty by using the high estimate of recruits-per-spawner and the low estimate of carrying capacity for the lower bound, and the low estimate of recruits-per-spawner and the high estimate of smolt carrying capacity for the upper end of the range. The ranges were further adjusted upward by 26-184% for risk aversion and habitat considerations. However, annual natural spawning escapement targets may vary from the Fishery Management Plan (FMP) conservation objectives if agreed to by WDFW and the treaty Indian tribes under the provisions of Hoh versus Baldrige and subsequent US District Court orders. After an annual agreement is reached, ocean fishery escapement objectives are established for each river, or region of origin. The agreement includes provisions for treaty Indian allocation requirements and inside non-Indian fishery needs. Agreements on annual spawning targets for Washington coastal Coho Salmon other than those in the FMP are not made every year (PFMC 2011).

The current total ceiling for the natural Coho Salmon population is defined as the maximum rate that will meet the minimum escapement goal of 5,800 when applied to the pre-season ocean abundance forecast (Haymes 2008). The basin is currently managed in US fisheries for a natural fall Coho Salmon escapement goal range of 5,800 to 14,500, and annual egg take objectives at the Salmon River Hatchery. The current ceilings for the Queets Coho Salmon population are listed below.

Queets River natural Coho Salmon, Strait of Juan de Fuca natural Coho Salmon, and Snohomish River natural Coho Salmon were found to meet the criteria for being classified as overfished in the PFMC Review of 2017 Ocean Salmon Fisheries, released in February 2018. Queets River natural Coho Salmon continue to meet the criteria for overfished status (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2023a). The harvest control rule during the rebuilding period for Queets Coho Salmon is the abundance-based stepped harvest rate of:

Table 4.46: Queets ocean abundance reference breakpoints and maximum total by and status categories.
Status(/) Ocean Abundance
Reference Breakpoint
Total Allowable Exploitation Rate
Low/Critical < 7,250 Up to 20%
Moderate/Low 7,250 – 9,667 21% – 35%
Abundant/Normal > 9,667 36% – 60%
Stock Assessment
Indicator Stocks
Figure 4.120: Number of wild fish caught, tagged, and released by clip status, within the Queets MU over brood years 1983 through 2020.
Figure 4.121: Total number of coded-wire-tagged hatchery coho Salmon released, by clip status, within the Queets MU for brood years 1983 through 2020.
Forecast Methods

The estimated number of total smolts averaged 286,000 annually from 2000 to 2022, with a high of 444,000 in 2004 and a low of 136,000 in 2022.

Figure 4.122: Estimated number of Queets MU wild Coho Salmon smolts outmigrants, years 1995 through 2022

Most Recent Abundance Forecast and Methods

This information is available in the ’s 2024 Preseason Report 1 (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2024c) and (Litz 2024).

The 2024 Queets abundance forecast is 12,824, resulting in a classification of the stock abundance as “Abundant” under the 2019 . This results in an allowable total of no more than 55% under the .

The natural forecast was developed by multiplying the 2023 smolt outmigration estimate of 205,963 by the predicted marine survival rate of 7.669%, which results in an abundance prediction of 15,795 . The model uses run reconstructions developed by the Quinault Department of Fisheries (QDFi) as a response, which includes natural and incidental mortality, but does not include estimates of mark-selective fishery mortality. Expansion for mark-selective fishery mortality for the 2024 run abundance prediction was not available at the time of this report but was estimated as mean (post season FRAM / QDFi run reconstruction for run years 2010 to 2020) * abundance prediction for 2023 = 1.095037 * 13,963 = 15,290. Marine survival is typically predicted using a general additive logistic regression model (logit (recruits/smolts) ~ spline (explanatory variable(s)). The explanatory variables are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index maximum May-August and Biologically Effective Upwelling Transport Index median April-August.

Escapement Monitoring
Fishery Monitoring
Enhancement

The Salmon River Hatchery, located on a tributary to the Queets River and operated by the Quinault Tribe is the primary Coho Salmon adult broodstock collection, incubation, and rearing program in the (Haymes 2008). Coho Salmon juveniles were also periodically reared, coded wire tagged, and released at several other locations in the basin as part of a long-term natural production enhancement program operated by the Quinault tribe, using juveniles produced from wild origin adult Coho Salmon collected with wild broodstock capture programs.

Figure 4.123: Hatchery production of Coho Salmon released within the Queets , brood years 1983 through 2020.

4.2.11.3 Management Performance

Forecast Evaluation
Figure 4.124: Comparison of preseason abundance predictions with the post-season estimates for the Queets MU.
Fishery Mortality and Escapement

The base period for the FRAM defines the temporal and spatial distributions of salmon fishing mortalities from each . The current FRAM base period for Coho Salmon includes catch years 1986-1992. During this period, fishing effort, tagging, and fishery sampling of Coho Salmon was high, allowing relatively fine-scale discrimination between salmon distributions. Coded-wire-tag codes used during the base period for the Queets are provided in the Appendix and average base period by individual fisheries are listed below.

Table 4.47: Queets MU average annual (total) and time period specific ERs used in the current FRAM base period.
Fishery Jan-Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct-Dec Total
Fort Bragg Sport - 0.02% 0.00% - - 0.02%
Fort Bragg Troll 0.01% - - - - 0.01%
KMZ Sport 0.01% - - - - 0.01%
KMZ Troll 0.03% - - - - 0.03%
Brookings Sport 0.02% - 0.02% - - 0.04%
Brookings Troll 0.00% - 0.00% - - 0.00%
Newport Sport 0.17% 0.68% 0.59% 0.08% - 1.52%
Newport Troll 0.45% 1.68% 0.91% 0.07% - 3.11%
Coos Bay Sport 0.09% 0.62% 0.32% - - 1.04%
Coos Bay Troll 0.20% 0.55% 0.29% 0.02% - 1.07%
Tillamook Sport 0.04% 0.39% 0.54% 0.08% - 1.05%
Tillamook Troll 0.10% 2.17% 1.15% 0.20% - 3.61%
Col. Rvr. Buoy 10 Sport - 0.20% 0.67% 0.11% 0.04% 1.01%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Sport 0.11% 0.74% 1.00% 0.19% - 2.04%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Troll 0.03% 0.62% 0.91% 0.53% 0.07% 2.17%
WA Area 2 Non-Treaty Troll 0.21% 0.26% 0.42% 0.08% - 0.98%
WA Area 2 Treaty Troll 0.21% 0.66% 0.36% 0.15% - 1.38%
WA Area 2 Sport 0.20% 1.56% 2.10% 1.61% - 5.47%
WA Area 3 Non-Treaty Troll 0.17% 0.03% 0.20% 0.03% - 0.42%
WA Area 3 Treaty Troll 0.23% 0.52% 0.71% 0.05% - 1.50%
WA Area 3 Sport 0.01% 0.12% 0.07% 0.06% - 0.25%
WA Area 4 Sport - 0.29% 0.45% 0.06% - 0.80%
WA Area 4/4B Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.05% 0.49% 0.17% - 0.71%
WA Area 4/4B Treaty Troll 0.28% 0.70% 0.86% 0.65% - 2.48%
WA Area 5-6-6C Troll 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% - 0.00% 0.00%
Willapa Bay & FW Trib Net - - - 0.01% - 0.01%
Grays Harbor Sport (2.2) - - 0.23% 0.05% - 0.28%
Grays Harbor Estuary Net - - - - 0.54% 0.54%
Quinault R Net - - 0.03% 1.90% 3.03% 4.96%
Queets R Sport - - - - 2.69% 2.69%
Clearwater R Sport - - - - 1.07% 1.07%
Salmon R Sport (Queets) - - - - 0.08% 0.08%
Queets R Net - - 0.08% 6.88% 15.76% 22.72%
Queets R C&S - - - - 3.00% 3.00%
Hoh R Net - - - 0.43% 1.26% 1.69%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.02%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Treaty Net - 0.03% 0.09% 0.14% 0.39% 0.65%
WA Area 7-7A Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.02% - 0.02%
WA Area 7-7A Treaty Net - - - 0.04% - 0.04%
WA Area 5 Sport (Sekiu) 0.05% 0.18% 0.59% 0.41% 0.05% 1.28%
WA Area 6 Sport (Port Angeles) 0.01% 0.05% - 0.03% 0.05% 0.14%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Non-Treaty Net - - 0.00% 0.03% - 0.03%
WA Area 7B-7C-7D Treaty Net - - 0.01% 0.04% - 0.05%
WA Area 8 Non-Treaty Net (Skagit) - - - - 0.00% 0.00%
WA Area 8 Treaty Net (Skagit) - - - - 0.00% 0.00%
WA Area 9 Sport (Admirality Inlet) 0.02% - - - - 0.02%
WA Area 8A Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.08% - 0.08%
WA Area 8A Treaty Net - - - 0.12% - 0.12%
WA Area 10 Sport (Seattle) - - - - 0.06% 0.06%
WA Area 10 Non-Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.06% 0.03% 0.08%
WA Area 10 Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.03% 0.02% 0.05%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Non-Treaty Net - - - - 0.09% 0.09%
Area 12-12B Hood Canal Treaty Net - - - - 0.12% 0.12%
Johnstone Strait Troll - 0.01% - 0.01% - 0.01%
BC Northern Troll - 0.44% 0.45% 0.03% - 0.93%
BC North Central Troll - 0.03% 0.12% 0.03% - 0.17%
BC South Central Troll 0.11% 0.50% 0.32% 0.16% - 1.09%
NW Vancouver Island Troll 0.09% 4.33% 5.64% 1.96% - 12.02%
SW Vancouver Island Troll 0.47% 9.84% 13.23% 3.98% - 27.51%
Georgia Straits Troll - - 0.02% - - 0.02%
BC Northern Net - 0.06% 0.06% - - 0.12%
BC Central Net - 0.08% - - - 0.08%
SW Vancouver Island Net - - - - 0.01% 0.01%
Johnstone Straits Net - - 0.17% 0.01% 0.03% 0.21%
Fraser R Gill Net - - 0.01% - - 0.01%
BC Juan de Fuca Net - 0.10% 1.27% 0.32% - 1.69%
Johnstone Strait Sport - 0.01% 0.03% - - 0.05%
BC Juan de Fuca Sport - 0.06% 0.11% 0.11% - 0.28%
West Coast Vanc Is Sport - 0.16% 0.12% 0.06% - 0.34%
North Georgia Straits Sport - 0.02% - - 0.01% 0.02%
SEAK Southwest Troll - 0.06% 0.03% - - 0.08%
SEAK Southeast Troll - - 0.01% - - 0.01%
SEAK Northwest Troll - 0.01% 0.03% 0.03% - 0.07%
Southeast Alaska Net - 0.01% - - - 0.01%
Figure 4.125: Post-season estimates of fishery mortality for the Queets by mark-selective (MSF) and non-selective (NS) fisheries over catch years 1998 through 2021. These estimates are combined US and Canadian harvest impacts.
Table 4.48: Historical summary of annual total abundance (January age-3 without natural mortality), adult escapement, and (ER) of the Queets Management Unit; since 2004.
catch_year abundance escapement
ER
Canada SUS
2004 13,445 6,860 1.2% 47.7%
2005 12,149 6,534 2.3% 43.8%
2006 8,695 5,334 2.2% 36.4%
2007 6,828 4,349 4.2% 31.9%
2008 7,335 4,513 1.4% 36.9%
2009 18,733 10,665 1.9% 41.0%
2010 20,070 12,558 0.9% 36.4%
2011 15,170 9,084 3.1% 36.9%
2012 9,194 4,615 3.1% 46.7%
2013 9,932 6,141 4.2% 33.7%
2014 12,903 7,455 4.2% 37.8%
2015 2,748 1,750 5.6% 30.6%
2016 6,070 4,556 1.5% 23.3%
2017 6,797 5,242 2.4% 20.3%
2018 3,446 2,209 4.7% 31.1%
2019 3,944 2,316 6.5% 34.7%
2020 5,126 2,983 3.5% 38.2%
2021 5,261 4,751 3.5% 6.0%
2022 17,811 12,444 3.5% 26.5%
Figure 4.126: Total exploitation rate (A) and escapement (B) of Queets MU by country, catch years 1986 through 2022. Dashed line indicates escapement goal for the Queets MU (Need esc goal for Queets 30,000 individuals).
Historical Overview of Status of Management Unit
Figure 4.127: Queets post-season estimates of ocean age-3 abundances, escapement, and harvest for catch years 2004 through 2022. The graphs include dashed trend lines and the vertical dotted lines highlight catch year 2010)
Figure 4.128: Queets pre- and post-season abundance status for catch years 2004 through 2021
Table 4.49: Preseason and post-season abundance estimates for Queets from 2004 onwards.
catch_year abund_preseason abund_postseason
2004 18,619.5 13,444.7
2005 17,232.7 12,148.8
2006 8,392.8 8,695.3
2007 13,634.8 6,828.0
2008 10,391.7 7,335.4
2009 31,668.8 18,733.0
2010 22,028.8 20,070.2
2011 13,398.4 15,169.6
2012 37,638.9 9,193.6
2013 24,797.8 9,931.7
2014 10,431.0 12,902.9
2015 7,593.0 2,748.3
2016 3,519.2 6,070.1
2017 6,591.6 6,797.0
2018 7,018.9 3,446.3
2019 11,204.4 3,944.1
2020 7,899.6 5,126.2
2021 3,948.7 5,261.4
2022 18,324.4 17,810.8
2023 12,527.5 NA
2024 12,944.3 NA

4.2.12 Grays Harbor

This description was prepared by U.S. members of the Coho Technical Committee.

4.2.12.1 Biological and Geographic Description

This consists of all tributaries to Grays Harbor, including the Chehalis and Humptulips river basins. Coho Salmon inhabiting these basins are treated as a single population under the .

The Grays Harbor belongs to the Southwest Washington Coast (SWWC) evolutionarily significant unit (ESU), which was formerly part of the Lower Columbia River/Southwest Washington Coast ESU (Weitkamp et al. 1995). Since the ESU was split in two and the Lower Columbia ESU listed, the SWWC ESU is currently of “undetermined” status for listing under the US Endangered Species Act (NOAA 2009).

The freshwater habitat of the consists of two major river basins (Chehalis and Humptulips), and several smaller independent tributaries (Haymes 2008). The freshwater tributaries in the region are primarily rain-fed. The Chehalis River is the largest drainage in the , with a basin area of 2,114 mi2 [5,475 km2]. The Chehalis basin drains the southern end of the Olympic mountain range and the Chehalis Prairie region near Centralia, entering the eastern side of the Grays Harbor estuary at the city of Aberdeen. The other significant river basin in the is the Humptulips River, with a basin area of 250 mi2 [647 km2]. The Humptulips River drains the southwestern end of the Olympic Mountain range and enters the northern side of Grays Harbor. The upper basin tributaries of these two rivers receive snowmelt input from the main Olympic mountain range in the winter and spring. The lower elevation tributaries in the region are largely rain-fed, with corresponding large changes in average discharge between the winter and summer periods. Several small tributaries enter the southern end of Grays Harbor. Total area for the entire Grays Harbor freshwater habitat is 2,550 mi2 [6,604 km2].

The Grays Harbor is unique among Washington Coast for having an extremely large estuary. Because of this, Coho Salmon moving from freshwater to marine habitats are able to gradually transition between completely fresh and completely salt waters over a geographically long gradient, rather than the abrupt transition in other coastal (e.g., Quillayute, Hoh, Queets).

Much of the land base in the is managed for commercial timber production, though the upper reaches of some the longer tributaries in the region originate in Olympic National Park (Haymes 2008). Agricultural activities are a prevalent land use in the lower and mid-Chehalis River basin. Two major regional urban areas, Aberdeen and Hoquiam are located at the mouth of the Chehalis River. Numerous other small to medium-sized communities are located in the Chehalis River basin. The Humptulips River basin has much more limited human development, with scattered residential and agricultural development in the lower valley.

Grays Harbor provides extensive estuarine habitat. However, water quality problems resulting from human activities have periodically impacted salmonid survival rates in Chehalis River estuary (Seiler 1989). Shellfish farming and harvesting activities are present in the estuary.

Figure 4.129: Grays Harbor MU Watershed

4.2.12.2 Management Framework

Objectives

The Grays Harbor is managed with together with other Washington coastal populations, which include all natural and hatchery stocks originating in Washington coastal streams north of the Columbia River to the western Strait of Juan de Fuca (PFMC 2011). Management goals for Washington coastal Coho Salmon stocks include achieving natural spawning escapement objectives and treaty Indian allocation requirements (PFMC 2011).

The ’s conservation objectives for stocks managed for natural production were based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY) spawner escapements established pursuant to the US District Court order in Hoh versus Baldrige. The conservation objectives for the Queets, Hoh, and Quillayute Rivers were developed as ranges intended to bracket estimates of MSY escapement. The range reflects inherent uncertainty by using the high estimate of recruits-per-spawner and the low estimate of carrying capacity for the lower bound, and the low estimate of recruits-per-spawner and the high estimate of smolt carrying capacity for the upper end of the range. The ranges were further adjusted upward by 26-184% for risk aversion and habitat considerations. However, annual natural spawning escapement targets may vary from the Fishery Management Plan (FMP) conservation objectives if agreed to by WDFW and the treaty Indian tribes under the provisions of Hoh versus Baldrige and subsequent US District Court orders. After an annual agreement is reached, ocean fishery escapement objectives are established for each river, or region of origin. The agreement includes provisions for treaty Indian allocation requirements and inside non-Indian fishery needs. Agreements on annual spawning targets for Washington coastal Coho Salmon other than those in the FMP are not made every year (PFMC 2011).

The current total ceiling for the Grays Harbor natural Coho Salmon population is defined as the maximum rate that will meet a 35,400 escapement goal when applied to the pre-season ocean abundance forecast (Haymes 2008). The basin is currently managed in US fisheries for an escapement goal of 35,400. The current ceilings for the Grays Harbor Coho Salmon population are listed below.

Table 4.50: Current Grays Harbor ocean abundance reference breakpoints and maximum total by and status categories.
Status(/) Ocean Abundance
Reference Breakpoint
Total Exploitation Rate
Low/Critical < 44,250 Up to 20%
Moderate/Low 44,250 – 58,000 21% – 35%
Abundant/Normal > 58,000 36% – 60%
Stock Assessment
Indicator Stocks
Figure 4.130: Number of wild fish caught, tagged, and released by clip status, within the Grays Harbor MU over brood years 1983 through 2020.
Figure 4.131: Total number of coded-wire-tagged hatchery coho Salmon released, by clip status, within the Grays Harbor MU for brood years 1983 through 2020.
Forecast Methods

The estimated number of total smolts averaged 2.5 million annually from 2000 to 2022, with a high of 3.6 million in 2017 and a low of 203,000 in 2002.

Figure 4.132: Estimated number of Grays Harbor MU wild Coho Salmon smolts outmigrants, years 1995 through 2022

ToDo Need to check what MSR to use (or both). Looks like could use Bingham Creek or Black River

Figure 4.133: Estimated marine survival rates for Black River Coho Salmon, (data provided by M. Litz, WDFW).
Figure 4.134: Estimated marine survival rates for Bingham Creek Coho Salmon, (data provided by M. Litz, WDFW).

Most Recent Abundance Forecast and Methods

This information is available in the ’s 2024 Preseason Report 1 (Pacific Fishery Management Council 2024c) and (Litz 2024).

The 2024 Grays Harbor abundance forecast is 74,851, resulting in a classification of the stock abundance as “Abundant” under the 2019 . This results in an allowable total of no more than 57% under the .

This forecast is the sum of the Chehalis River natural, Humptulips River natural, and South Bay tributary natural forecasts. An Coho Salmon marine survival prediction was developed by dividing the Quinault Department of Fisheries prediction of Queets Coho Salmon marine survival by the natural mortality rate of 1.23169%. The Chehalis wild Coho Salmon smolt production estimate was developed by scaling the 2023 Queets River natural Coho Salmon smolt production to the Chehalis River production based on the relationship between the Backward ocean abundances of Queets and Chehalis natural Coho Salmon abundances during the past 15 years. The Humptulips and South Bay tributary forecasts are based on recruit densities scaled from Clearwater and Chehalis basins, respectively.

The Grays Harbor is managed differently than other U.S. , in that the overfishing limit (OFL) is defined in terms of spawner escapement that includes hatchery origin fish that are projected to spawn in natural areas. Potential Grays Harbor Coho Salmon natural area spawner abundance was derived by adding the current forecast of natural origin Coho Salmon abundance of 74,851, to the predicted abundance of hatchery origin Coho Salmon spawning in natural areas. The forecast of naturally spawning hatchery origin Coho is 7,025 and was calculated by multiplying the hatchery Coho Salmon abundance forecast of 68,200, by the most recent 5-year average stray rate (2018-2022 average = 0.103). Annual stray rates were estimated by dividing the number of hatchery origin spawners in natural areas by the total hatchery origin escapement.

Escapement Monitoring
Fishery Monitoring
Enhancement

There are three major hatchery Coho Salmon production programs located in the with adult collection and juvenile rearing facilities, all of which are operated by WDFW (Haymes 2008). Humptulips Hatchery is located at the mouth of Stevens Creek on the Humptulips River at RM 22.5 from the estuary. Bingham Creek Hatchery is located at the mouth of Bingham Creek on the Satsop River at RM 17.5 (the Satsop River enters the Chehalis River at RM 20.2 from the estuary). Van Winkle (Aberdeen) Hatchery is located on Van Winkle Cr., a tributary to the lower Chehalis River. Coho Salmon are also reared and released at the WDFW Skookumchuck and Eight Creek Hatcheries, which are located on tributaries to the Chehalis R. These programs typically use juvenile Coho Salmon production obtained from the Bingham Creek facility.

There are up to several net pen rearing projects operating in the Chehalis River and Grays Harbor estuaries each year, maintained by local public sport fishery enhancement groups. These programs typically use juvenile production obtained from the WDFW Bingham Creek facility. Additionally, Mayr Brothers Ponds, a privately operated facility located on the Wishkah River, has adult collection and juvenile acclimation facilities that are periodically used for the collection and production of Coho Salmon (Haymes 2008).

Figure 4.135: Hatchery production of Coho Salmon released within the Grays Harbor , brood years 1983 through 2020.

4.2.12.3 Management Performance

Forecast Evaluation
Figure 4.136: Comparison of preseason abundance predictions with the post-season estimates for the Gray Harbor MU.
Fishery Mortality and Escapement

The base period for the FRAM defines the temporal and spatial distributions of salmon fishing mortalities from each . The current FRAM base period for Coho Salmon includes catch years 1986-1992. During this period, fishing effort, tagging, and fishery sampling of Coho Salmon was high, allowing relatively fine-scale discrimination between salmon distributions. Coded-wire-tag codes used during the base period for the Grays Harbor are provided in the Appendix and average base period by individual fisheries are listed below.

Table 4.51: Grays Harbor MU average annual (total) and time period specific ERs used in the current FRAM base period.
Fishery Jan-Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct-Dec Total
Fort Bragg Troll 0.00% 0.00% - - - 0.00%
KMZ Sport 0.00% - - - - 0.00%
KMZ Troll - - 0.00% - - 0.00%
Brookings Sport 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% - - 0.02%
Brookings Troll 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% - - 0.03%
Newport Sport 0.05% 0.21% 0.32% 0.04% - 0.62%
Newport Troll 0.07% 0.53% 0.26% 0.03% - 0.89%
Coos Bay Sport 0.02% 0.15% 0.10% 0.03% - 0.29%
Coos Bay Troll 0.08% 0.27% 0.10% 0.03% - 0.48%
Tillamook Sport 0.01% 0.11% 0.22% 0.08% - 0.42%
Tillamook Troll 0.02% 0.48% 0.58% 0.08% - 1.16%
Col. Rvr. Buoy 10 Sport - 0.08% 0.19% 0.13% - 0.40%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Sport 0.01% 0.24% 0.40% 0.12% - 0.77%
WA Area 1 & Astoria Troll 0.01% 0.11% 0.41% 0.79% 0.11% 1.44%
WA Area 2 Non-Treaty Troll 0.02% 0.04% 0.18% 0.05% - 0.29%
WA Area 2 Treaty Troll 0.02% 0.10% 0.15% 0.10% - 0.37%
WA Area 2 Sport 0.02% 0.25% 0.87% 2.32% - 3.45%
WA Area 3 Non-Treaty Troll 0.03% 0.00% 0.05% 0.06% - 0.14%
WA Area 3 Treaty Troll 0.04% 0.06% 0.16% 0.11% - 0.38%
WA Area 3 Sport - 0.01% 0.03% 0.00% - 0.04%
WA Area 4 Sport - 0.05% 0.09% 0.03% - 0.18%
WA Area 4/4B Non-Treaty Troll 0.00% 0.01% 0.24% 0.20% 0.01% 0.47%
WA Area 4/4B Treaty Troll 0.04% 0.17% 0.42% 0.77% 0.03% 1.45%
WA Area 5-6-6C Troll - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.02%
Willapa Bay & FW Trib Net - - - 0.25% 0.73% 0.98%
Grays Harbor Sport (2.2) - - 0.05% 0.72% 0.26% 1.02%
Grays Harbor Estuary Net 0.08% - - 0.85% 10.14% 11.07%
Humptulips R Sport - - - - 5.27% 5.27%
Lower Chehalis R Net - - - 0.74% 21.15% 21.89%
Chehalis R Sport - - - - 1.77% 1.77%
Humptulips R Net - - - - 34.60% 34.60%
Upper Chehalis R Net - - - - 2.36% 2.36%
Wynochee R Sport - - - - 0.29% 0.29%
Hoquiam R Sport - - - - 4.93% 4.93%
Wishkah R Sport - - - - 9.64% 9.64%
Satsop R Sport - - - - 1.47% 1.47%
Quinault R Net - - - 0.01% 0.14% 0.16%
Queets R Net - - - 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
Hoh R Net - - - 0.00% - 0.00%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Non-Treaty Net - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
WA Area 4B-5-6C Treaty Net - 0.05% 0.03% 0.01% 0.22% 0.30%
WA Area 7-7A Non-Treaty Net - - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
WA Area 7-7A Treaty Net - - - 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%
WA Area 5 Sport (Sekiu) 0.01% 0.02% 0.18% 0.22% 0.10% 0.53%
WA Area 6 Sport (Port Angeles) - 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02%
WA Area 10 Non-Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.02% 0.01% 0.03%
WA Area 10 Treaty Net (Seattle) - - - 0.01% 0.00% 0.02%
WA Area 11 Non-Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - - 0.01% 0.01%
WA Area 11 Treaty Net (E/W Pass) - - - - 0.00% 0.00%
Johnstone Strait Troll - 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% - 0.01%
BC Northern Troll - 0.20% 0.42% 0.18% - 0.80%
BC North Central Troll - 0.31% 0.03% 0.01% - 0.36%
BC South Central Troll 0.08% 0.45% 0.26% 0.09% - 0.88%
NW Vancouver Island Troll 0.20% 2.54% 2.71% 1.47% - 6.93%
SW Vancouver Island Troll 0.38% 5.73% 5.30% 1.32% - 12.72%
Georgia Straits Troll - 0.01% - - - 0.01%
BC Northern Net - 0.04% 0.03% - - 0.06%
BC Central Net - 0.07% - - - 0.07%
SW Vancouver Island Net - - - 0.02% 0.02% 0.03%
Johnstone Straits Net - - 0.15% 0.03% 0.01% 0.20%
Fraser R Gill Net - - 0.01% - - 0.01%
BC Juan de Fuca Net 0.00% 0.08% 0.36% 0.10% - 0.55%
Johnstone Strait Sport - 0.01% 0.02% - - 0.03%
BC Northern Sport - - 0.01% 0.00% - 0.01%
BC Central Sport - - 0.00% - - 0.00%
BC Juan de Fuca Sport - - 0.03% 0.05% 0.11% 0.18%
West Coast Vanc Is Sport 0.16% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% - 0.23%
North Georgia Straits Sport 0.01% - - 0.03% - 0.03%
South Georgia Straits Sport - 0.01% - - - 0.01%
SEAK Southwest Troll - 0.01% 0.06% 0.00% - 0.07%
SEAK Southeast Troll - 0.00% 0.02% - - 0.03%
SEAK Northwest Troll - 0.02% 0.11% 0.05% - 0.18%
SEAK Northeast Troll - - 0.01% - - 0.01%
Southeast Alaska Net - 0.01% 0.11% - - 0.12%
Figure 4.137: Post-season estimates of fishery mortality for the Grays Harbor by mark-selective (MSF) and non-selective (NS) fisheries over catch years 1998 through 2021. These estimates are combined US and Canadian harvest impacts.
Table 4.52: Historical summary of annual total abundance (January age-3 without natural mortality), adult escapement, marine survival (Bingham Creek), and (ER) of the Grays Harbor Management Unit; since 2004.
catch_year abundance marine_survival escapement
ER
Canada SUS
2004 68,872 2.1% 40,309 0.8% 40.2%
2005 73,009 3.7% 44,089 1.7% 37.6%
2006 26,881 1.5% 14,400 1.3% 44.9%
2007 34,718 2.8% 23,600 2.4% 29.1%
2008 51,708 2.3% 36,751 1.1% 27.4%
2009 113,275 10.2% 77,314 1.1% 30.3%
2010 117,353 7.7% 91,899 0.4% 20.9%
2011 86,208 6.9% 52,648 1.4% 37.1%
2012 103,923 5.1% 54,958 2.0% 44.9%
2013 80,323 2.5% 44,665 3.1% 40.8%
2014 152,912 7.9% 84,262 2.1% 42.2%
2015 31,714 1.8% 16,333 2.5% 45.7%
2016 35,331 3.5% 31,266 0.6% 10.6%
2017 37,344 3.8% 25,278 1.2% 30.8%
2018 60,777 4.3% 47,478 2.3% 19.2%
2019 50,994 3.2% 30,807 2.4% 36.8%
2020 31,581 3.6% 22,562 1.8% 26.5%
2021 77,315 7.8% 59,990 1.9% 20.2%
2022 79,356 7.0% 56,534 1.5% 27.0%
2023 NA NA NA NA NA
Figure 4.138: Total exploitation rate (A) and escapement (B) of Grays Harbor MU by country, catch years 1986 through 2022. Dashed line indicates escapement goal for the Grays Harbor MU (35,400 individuals).
Historical Overview of Status of Management Unit
Figure 4.139: Grays Harbor post-season estimates of ocean age-3 abundances, escapement, and harvest for catch years 2004 through 2022. The graphs include dashed trend lines and the vertical dotted lines highlight catch year 2010)
Figure 4.140: Grays Harbor pre- and post-season abundance status for catch years 2004 through 2021
Table 4.53: Preseason and post-season abundance estimates for Grays Harbor from 2004 onwards.
catch_year abund_preseason abund_postseason
2004 116,148.0 68,872.5
2005 89,654.6 73,009.2
2006 66,230.6 26,881.2
2007 58,434.5 34,718.0
2008 44,142.0 51,708.5
2009 59,459.0 113,275.1
2010 68,128.5 117,353.2
2011 89,347.9 86,208.2
2012 150,724.3 103,922.5
2013 197,371.8 80,323.4
2014 106,674.0 152,912.3
2015 139,781.2 31,714.1
2016 35,812.2 35,330.9
2017 50,125.7 37,344.5
2018 42,486.6 60,777.4
2019 71,782.9 50,993.6
2020 50,096.9 31,580.6
2021 44,932.9 77,315.3
2022 120,833.3 79,355.8
2023 103,210.0 NA
2024 75,102.8 NA

5 Members

Membership of the Joint Coho Technical Committee
Canadian Members United States Members
Ms. Dawn Lewis (Co-Chair), CDFO Dr. Gary S. Morishima (Co-Chair), QIN
Mr. Richard Bailey, Mr. John Brady, NOAA
Mr. Roger Dunlop, MMFN Ms. Carrie Cook-Tabor, USFWS
Mr. Kristopher Hein, CDFO Dr. Collin Edwards, WDFW
Ms. Sara Martin, CDFO Mr. Tyler Garber, WDFW
Mr. Michael O’Brien, CDFO Dr. Diego Holmgren, TUL
Mr. Kevin Pellet, CDFO Ms. Cassandra R. Leeman, ODFW
Ms. Ashlee Prevost, Dr. Marisa Litz, WDFW
Ms. Stephanie Thurner, NWIFC
Dr. Laurie Weitkamp, NMFS

6 Acronyms

Acronym Definition URL
ABM Abundance-Based Management
B.C. British Columbia
BkFRAM Backwards FRAM
BY Brood Year
CDFO Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans https://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/index-eng.htm
CFNC Canadian First Nations Caucus
CoTC Coho Joint Technical Committee https://www.psc.org/about-us/structure/committees/technical/coho/
CU Conservation Unit https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/1ac00a39-4770-443d-8a6b-9656c06df6a3
CWT Coded-Wire Tag https://www.nmt.us/cwt/
DIT Double-Index Tag
EDT Electronic Tag Detection
ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation https://www.climate.gov/enso
ER Exploitation Rate
ESA U.S. Endangered Species Act https://www.fws.gov/international/laws-treaties-agreements/us-conservation-laws/endangered-species-act.html
ESU Evolutionarily Significant Unit https://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/assets/4/6878_09172014_172219_Waples.1995.pdf
FMP Fisheries Management Plan
FRAFS Fraser River Aboriginal Fisheries Secretariat https://www.frafs.ca/
FRAM Fishery Regulation and Assessment Model https://framverse.github.io/fram_doc/
HC Hood Canal
IFMP Integrated Fisheries Management Plan https://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/ifmp-eng.html#Salmon
IFR Interior Fraser River
iREC Internet-based Recreational Fishery https://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/rec/irec-info-eng.html
JA3 January Age-3
LFFA Lower Fraser Fishery Alliance https://www.lffa.ca/
LWFR Lower Fraser River
MFMT Maximum Fishing Mortality Threshold
MMFN Mowachaht-Muchalaht First Nation https://www.yuquot.ca/
MSA Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/magnuson-stevens-fishery-conservation-and-management-act
MSF Mark-Selective Fishery https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/about/commission/meetings/2018/08/aug0918_fc_selective_fisheries.pdf
MSH Maximum Sustainable Harvest https://www.pcouncil.org/fact-sheet-annual-catch-limits-and-other-management-thresholds/#:~:text=The%20overfishing%20limit%20(OFL)%20is,the%20FMSY%20harvest%20rate.
MSM Mixed-Stock Model
MU Management Unit
NMFS National Marine Fisheries Service https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/
NOF North of Falcon https://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/management/north-falcon
NSF Non-Selective Fishery
NTC Nuu-chah-nulth Tribal Council https://nuuchahnulth.org/
NWIFC Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission https://nwifc.org/
OA3 Ocean Age-3
ODFW Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife https://www.dfw.state.or.us/
OFL Overfishing Limit https://www.pcouncil.org/fact-sheet-annual-catch-limits-and-other-management-thresholds/#:~:text=The%20overfishing%20limit%20(OFL)%20is,the%20FMSY%20harvest%20rate.
OR Oregon
PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/
PEF Production Expansion Factor
PFMC Pacific Fisheries Management Council U.S. https://www.pcouncil.org/
PS Puget Sound https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puget_Sound
PSC Pacific Salmon Commission https://www.psc.org/
PST Pacific Salmon Treaty https://www.psc.org/publications/pacific-salmon-treaty/
QIN Quinault Indian Nation http://www.quinaultindiannation.com/
RMIS Regional Mark Information System https://www.rmpc.org/
RMISD Regional Mark Information System Database (U.S.) https://www.rmpc.org/
RMPC Regional Mark Processing Center https://www.rmpc.org/
RRTERM Terminal Area Run Reconstruction Program
SCMP Southern Coho Management Plan https://www.psc.org/publications/pacific-salmon-treaty/
SRSC Skagit River System Cooperative
SIT Single Index Tag
SJDF Strait of Juan de Fuca
SUQ Suquamish Tribe https://suquamish.nsn.us/
TT Tulalip Tribes https://www.tulaliptribes-nsn.gov/
U.S. United States
UFFCA Upper Fraser Fisheries Conservation Alliance https://www.upperfraser.ca/
USFWS U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service https://www.fws.gov/
WA Washington
WCVI West Coast of Vancouver Island
WDFW Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife https://wdfw.wa.gov/
WSP Wild Salmon Policy (Canada)
WRIA Water Resource Inventory Area (U.S.)

7 Glossary

Term Definition
Abundance-Based Management (ABM) A management framework that constrains exploitation rates, based on a categorical abundance forecast (abundant, moderate, low) for naturally-spawning Coho Management Units. The purpose is to provide more protection when the status of the fish is low and the conservation need is greatest, and more harvest opportunity when abundance is high. Exploitation rate caps are specified in the Pacific Salmon Treaty Southern Coho Agreement.
Base Period (FRAM) The FRAM base period is a period chosen to represent average temporal and geographic distributions of Coho Salmon coastwide. The base period was developed by summarizing coded-wire-tag information from a continuous time period containing a sufficient number of CWT releases and fishery recoveries. The current Coho base period is comprised of CWT recoveries from catch years 1986–1992. The Mixed-stock Model (MSM) and cohort reconstruction methods were used to estimate base period exploitation rates and other parameters, such as base period cohort sizes and fishery compositions, for all FRAM stocks and fisheries by time step. The base period is made up of the averages of these estimates over the catch years 1986 through 1992. Using these base period parameters allows FRAM to predict the stock composition, exploitation rates, and escapements of future fisheries when provided with forecasts of abundance and fishery mortalities.
Break point A Management Unit-specific ocean age-3 abundance level that determines the categorical status of a stock (i.e., abundant, moderate, low).
Brood Year (BY) The year in which the majority of parent fish spawned and deposited fertilized eggs.
By-catch Incidental or unintentional catch of non-target stocks or species.
Catch The number of fish that are retained in a fishery.
Coded-Wire Tag (CWT) A small piece of magnetized stainless-steel wire that is injected into the snout of a juvenile salmon (usually hatchery stock). Each tag is 0.25 mm in diameter and typically 1.1 mm long and is etched with a code that identifies its specific release group. Each code is associated with release information, including date and location of release, hatchery, stock, fish size, and number of fish tagged with that same code (referred to as a release group). Tags are typically recovered from returning adults through fishery and escapement sampling. Release and recovery Information is stored in the U.S. in the Regional Mark Information System's (RMIS) Release database and in Canada’s Mark Recovery Program.
Cohort A group of fish belonging to the same brood year.
Cohort Abundance For each stock unit, an annual abundance is obtained from a regional expert, typically in the form of an ocean age-3 run size (pre-fishing age-3 abundance in the ocean after natural mortality has been subtracted). In a pre-season context these abundances come from annual forecasts, whereas in a post-season context the abundances are derived from estimates of actual returns. For Coho, an initial stock abundance is needed for adult fish (age-3) by mark status.
Cohort Reconstruction or Cohort Analysis Cohort reconstruction is a method commonly used in salmon stock assessment for estimation of exploitation rates. The basic principle of cohort reconstruction is the sequential estimation of a cohort’s abundance from the end of the cohort’s life span, when abundance is zero, to a specified earlier age (commonly age-3 for Coho). A full cohort reconstruction can be completed only once the cohort’s life span has ended. Age-specific escapement and harvest data are required and, in general, the natural mortality rates are assumed.
Co-management The collaborative process between co-managers–tribal governments and state governments on the West Coast. Using scientific information, the co-managers make decisions about the management of fisheries to ensure that the fisheries meet legal requirements, treaty fishing rights, and conservation goals.
Command Files The files used in the Fisheries Regulation Assessment Model containing all the necessary input parameters to run the model, such as forecasted abundance estimates and fishery regulations. A separate command file is developed for each FRAM run.
Conservation Unit (CU) Salmon populations that have been identified as distinct units of biodiversity under the Canadian Wild Salmon Policy (see Holtby and Ciruna 2007). A Conservation Unit (CU) is a group of wild Pacific salmon sufficiently isolated from other groups that, if extirpated, is very unlikely to recolonize naturally within an acceptable timeframe, such as a human lifetime or a specified number of salmon generations.
Double-Index Tag (DIT) Paired groups of tagged fish, each tagged with separate CWT tag code, used to determine differential exploitation rates on marked and unmarked fish subjected to mark-selective fisheries. Both groups are presumed identical except that one group is externally marked (adipose fin clipped) and one group is unmarked (not adipose fin clipped).
El Niño Index (ONI) The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is an index for tracking the ocean part of ENSO, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The ONI is a rolling 3-month average temperature anomaly in the surface waters of the east-central tropical Pacific, near the International Dateline. Index values of +0.5 or higher indicate El Niño. Values of -0.5 or lower indicate La Niña.
Electronic Tag Detection (ETD) The use of a handheld wand or tunnel type detector that can sense the magnetized coded-wire tag within a fish's snout.
Endangered Species Act (U.S.) The Endangered Species Act (ESA) is the primary law in the United States for protecting critically important species that are at risk of extinction. Under the ESA, the federal government has the responsibility to protect these species and their critical habitats. NOAA Fisheries is responsible for endangered and threatened salmon.
Enhancement Use of hatcheries, spawning channels, lake fertilization or habitat restoration to increase the survival rate or production of salmon at some stage of its life.
Escapement (Spawning Escapement) The number of adult salmon that escape all fisheries and other forms of mortality to return to a hatchery or stream to spawn.
Evolutionarily Significant Unit (ESU) Under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, a group of Pacific salmon populations that represent an important component of the evolutionary legacy of the species and are therefore treated as a single “species”.
Exclusive Economic Zone The Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is an area from 3 to 200 nautical miles offshore of coastal states and is classified as federal waters. In the EEZ, the U.S. has special rights about the exploration and use of marine resources, which includes energy production from water and wind, and fisheries.
Exploitation Rate (ER) Expressed as a percentage, the proportion of the total return of adult salmon in a given year that die as a result of fishing activity. Mortalities include landed catch and incidental mortalities.
Exploitation Rate Cap The maximum exploitation rate an MU can be subjected to given its categorical abundance status. Under the ABM, allowable exploitation rate is shared by Canada and the U.S.
Fisheries Management Fisheries management is a process that relies on science, management approaches, enforcement, partnerships, and public participation. Fisheries management uses scientific information (e.g., number of fish caught, types of fish caught, life cycle knowledge) and input from fishing communities to help guide management decisions and conservation objectives.
Fisheries Management Plan (FMP) The set of fisheries planned to distribute exploitation rates amongst fisheries and time periods each year. These are termed Integrated Fisheries Management Plans in Canada.
Fishery A fishery is an activity leading to the harvesting of fish and can be specified by the species of fish caught, people involved, location, method of fishing, and purpose of the activities. Fish caught in a fishery can be for commercial, recreational, or tribal and ceremonial purposes.
Fishery Regulation Assessment Model (FRAM) A model used to estimate the MU- and fishery-specific impacts. The Forwards FRAM projects MU-specific mortalities and escapements under proposed fishery regimes given pre-season forecasts. The Backwards Coho FRAM estimates unspecified MU abundances using estimates of escapements and fishing mortalities. It includes 246 stocks, 198 fisheries, and 5 time steps.
Fry Salmon that have emerged from gravel, completed yolk absorption, remained in freshwater streams, and are less than a few months old.
FSC (Canada) First Nations' fishery for food, social, and ceremonial use.
Harvest The term harvest refers to the total number of fish caught and kept from an area or fishery during a period of time.
Incidental mortality Mortality incurred during fishing in addition to landed catch. For example, some fish die as a result of being caught and released.
Indicator stock A coded-wire-tagged surrogate stock that is used to make inferences for a particular MU. For example, a CWT release from a hatchery stock may be used to estimate the distribution and magnitude of fishing mortalities.
Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP) These Canadian plans identify the main objectives and requirements for Pacific fisheries and outline the management to achieve these objectives. IFMPs provide a common understanding of the basic rules for the sustainable management of the fisheries resource, and communicate basic information about fish stocks and our fisheries.
Interception Interception occurs when a salmon from one state or country is caught in another state or country's fisheries. As salmon grow and mature in the Pacific Ocean, they travel along the West Coast and across international borders. Salmon that originate in U.S. streams may migrate through Canadian waters, where they may be caught in Canadian fisheries. Salmon from Oregon streams can be caught in Washington fisheries.
January age-3 abundance (JA3) The estimated abundance of fish of age-3 (adults) in January before any fisheries start. January age-3 abundance is estimated as fishing mortality plus escapement plus natural mortality.
La Niña
Landed catch Fish that are caught and kept (see Incidental mortality)
Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSA) The Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSA) is the primary law that governs fisheries management in the federal marine waters (3-200 miles offshore) of the United States. The goal of the MSA is to encourage the long-term biological and economic sustainability of marine fisheries.
Management Unit (MU) Under the PST Southern Coho agreement, a geographically-based aggregate of salmon populations, that is managed under a single set of exploitation rate caps.
Mark-Selective Fishery (MSF) A fishery that requires marked fish (i.e., those with adipose fin clips) and unmarked fish (those with intact adipose fins) to be differentially retained (e.g., marked fish kept, unmarked fish released).
Maximum Sustainable Harvest (MSH) An estimate of the largest average annual catch or yield that can be continuously taken over a long period from a stock under prevailing ecological and environmental conditions.
Mixed-Stock Model A model used to estimate the cohort abundances in mixed stock fisheries using coded-wire tags and estimates of catch (see Production Expansion Factors).
Naturally Produced Originated from spawning in the natural environment, as opposed to spawned in a hatchery. Often considered “wild”.
Non-retention fisheries Fisheries in which a particular group of fish are not allowed to be kept (e.g., due to species or external marks) (see Retention Fisheries)
Non-selective fisheries (NSF) Fisheries allowed to retain both marked (adipose fin clipped) and unmarked fish (see Mark-selective fishery).
North of Falcon Each year state, federal, and tribal fishery managers gather to plan the Northwest's recreational and commercial salmon fisheries. This series of meetings – involving representatives from federal, state and tribal governments and recreational and commercial fishing industries – is known as the North of Falcon process. The North of Falcon planning process coincides with the March and April meetings of the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PMFC), the federal authority responsible for setting ocean salmon seasons 3 to 200 miles off the Pacific coast. In addition to the two PFMC meetings, the states of Washington and Oregon and the Treaty Tribes sponsor additional meetings to discuss alternative fishing seasons that meet conservation and allocation objectives. Fishery managers generally refer to the entire set of pre-season meetings as North of Falcon. The name refers to Cape Falcon in northern Oregon, which marks the southern border of active management for Washington salmon stocks.
Ocean Age-3 Abundance (OA3) Total number of fish that are harvested (including incidental mortality) plus those that escape to spawn (also referred to as “cohort abundance” or “ocean recruits”). Natural mortality is not included. This abundance status of a Management Unit is based upon this estimate of abundance.
Overfishing Limit (OFL) The overfishing limit (OFL) is the maximum amount of a stock that can be caught in a year without resulting in overfishing. Groundfish OFLs for assessed stocks are typically determined by multiplying the estimated abundance of the exploitable biomass of a stock by the FMSY harvest rate. There are also methods for determining OFLs for unassessed stocks. Setting OFLs is a scientific (as opposed to policy) determination made by the Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC). OFLs are set for every actively managed stock or stock complex.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) The PDO describes the pattern of sea surface temperatures around the North Pacific Ocean north of 20°N. During a "warm", or "positive", phase, the west Pacific becomes cooler and part of the eastern ocean warms; during a "cool", or "negative", phase, the opposite pattern occurs. The index was originally described by Mantua et al. 1997 (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 78 (6): 1069–79.)
Pacific Salmon Commission (PSC) A joint Canada/U.S. commission established under the Pacific Salmon Treaty to oversee the implementation of the Pacific Salmon Treaty.
Pacific Salmon Treaty (PST) A treaty between Canada and the United States concerning the conservation, management, restoration, and enhancement of pacific salmon resources.
Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission (PSMFC) Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission (PSMFC) is a non‐regulatory agency that serves Alaska, California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. PSMFC (headquartered in Portland) administers salmon disaster relief funds, provides a communication exchange between the Pacific Fishery Management Council and the North Pacific Fishery Management Council, and provides information in the form of data services for various fisheries.
Production Expansion Factor (PEF) A scalar that represents the number of fish in a population from a single CWT recovery.
Rebuilding The process of rebuilding an overfished stock. For salmon, rebuilding usually takes the form of reduced harvest limits.
Reference Point A Management Unit-specific ocean age-3 abundance level that determines the categorical status of a stock (i.e., abundant, moderate, low).
Regional Mark Information System (RMIS) Database containing data on salmonid releases, recoveries in fisheries and escapement, and estimated catch by fishery and time period.
Retention fisheries Fisheries in which fish of a particular group are allowed to be kept (see Non-retention fisheries).
Return year The year in which fish would normally return to spawn as adults. For Southern Coho Salmon that mature as 3 year old adults, return year is Brood Year + 3.
RR Term A program that reconstructs terminal Coho runs using freshwater and terminal area marine fisheries and escapement data for Puget Sound stocks.
Run As salmon migrate back to freshwater as adults, they arrive in groups called runs, which are typically associated with a season (spring, summer, fall, winter). A run of salmon may be composed of salmon from a single age or multiple ages, and can be from a single stock or multiple stocks.
Sibling Forecast In all species of Pacific salmon but pinks, the individual salmon produced in any one spawning year mature and return to spawn in more than one subsequent year. All of the fish that return from a spawning year (the brood year) are collectively referred to as a cohort or the brood-year return. A sibling forecast uses the first returns from a cohort to predict the number of their siblings that will return in subsequent years. Generally, the first year of return is dominated by males and the last year of returns by females.
Single Index Tag (SIT) A group of coded-wire-tagged (CWT) fish that are not paired with another release group. They can be marked (clipped) or unmarked (unclipped).
Smolt A smolt is a life cycle phase of a salmon or steelhead when the fish is preparing for the transition from freshwater to saltwater. The process is called smoltification. A smolt becomes physiologically capable of balancing salt and water in the estuary and ocean waters. Smolts vary in size and age depending on the species of salmon.
Smolt Year The year in which fish would normally enter the ocean as smolts. For Southern Coho Salmon, smolt year is brood year + 2 and return year − 1. Often described as “smolt outmigration year”.
Southern Coho Management Plan (SCMP) An agreement between the U.S. and Canada that specifies how the Parties’ fisheries impact on Coho Salmon that originate in southern British Columbia, Washington and Oregon shall be managed, subject to future approved technical refinements. It is described in Annex IV, Chapter 5 of the current Pacific Salmon Treaty.
Spawning Escapement The number of adult fish that “escape” fisheries and return to freshwater to spawn.
Spawning Grounds/Spawn Spawning grounds are the freshwater areas where salmon and steelhead spawn.
Special management zone (SMZ) Geographic/temporal areas in B.C. that have special management restrictions.
Status A Management Unit's status (Low, Moderate, and Abundant) is based on its forecasted (pre-season) or estimated (post-season) ocean Age-3 abundance.
Stock A group of interbreeding organisms that is relatively isolated (i.e., demographically uncoupled) from other such groups and is likely adapted to the local habitat. Fish species are made up of an aggregate of stocks.
Stock Assessment The use of various statistical and mathematical calculations to make quantitative predictions about the reactions of fish populations to alternative management choices.
Subsistence Fisheries In the Pacific Northwest of the U.S., the term "Ceremonial and Subsistence" (C&S) is used to describe non-commercial harvest in Treaty Tribe fisheries for personal, ritual, or community use. In Canada, the term "Food, Social, and Ceremonial" (FSC) is used to describe the non-commercial harvest of fish by the First Nations.
Treaty/Treaties A treaty is a formal, legally binding agreement that establishes obligations between and among two or more countries, states, or sovereign nations. Examples of treaties include the Pacific Salmon Treaty and treaties between the U.S. and American Indian Tribes.
Troll Fishery (Trolling) Fishing with a hook or hooks attached to a line that is towed through the water or from a vessel. Commercial trollers employ hooks and lines that are suspended from large poles extending from the fishing vessel
Voluntary Head Recovery Program (VHRP) A sampling program in B.C. for recreational fisheries that relies upon anglers voluntarily returning heads from marked salmon so CWTs may be recovered.
Wild Salmon Salmon are considered "wild" if they have spent their entire life cycle in the wild and originate from parents that were also produced by natural spawning and continuously lived in the wild.

8 Appendix: Annual CoTC reports of Estimates of Exploitation Rates

General archive of public CoTC reports

9 Appendix: realized vs target ERs

Table 9.1: Table of target ER (“Preseason”) and observed ER (“Postseason”) for US Inside MUs from 2019 to 2022. “Postseason Unused Using Preseason Cap” compares how well Postseason ER would have met the Preseason cap. This removes the effects of shifts in the abundance category between pre and post-season (if the abundance category remained the same, “Postseason Unused Using Preseason Cap” will be the same as “Postseason Cap”). Outside limits need to be calculated separately; this has not been done yet.
Catch Year PSC_StockName Preseason Cap Preseason Model ER Preseason Unused Postseason Cap Postseason Model ER Postseason Unused Postseason Unused Using Preseason Cap
2004 Skagit 60.0 35.8 24.2 60.0 17.9 42.1 42.1
2004 Stillaguamish 50.0 38.8 11.2 50.0 12.0 38.0 38.0
2004 Snohomish 60.0 34.8 25.2 60.0 12.7 47.3 47.3
2004 Hood Canal 65.0 34.6 30.4 65.0 43.7 21.3 21.3
2004 US Strait JDF 60.0 13.0 47.0 40.0 9.4 30.6 50.6
2005 Skagit 35.0 34.2 0.8 35.0 36.9 −1.9 −1.9
2005 Stillaguamish 50.0 42.8 7.2 50.0 26.4 23.6 23.6
2005 Snohomish 60.0 39.4 20.6 60.0 22.2 37.8 37.8
2005 Hood Canal 65.0 34.6 30.4 65.0 37.7 27.3 27.3
2005 US Strait JDF 40.0 12.2 27.8 20.0 6.8 13.2 33.2
2006 Skagit 60.0 35.4 24.6 20.0 33.1 −13.1 26.9
2006 Stillaguamish 50.0 40.2 9.8 35.0 20.9 14.1 29.1
2006 Snohomish 60.0 38.7 21.3 40.0 20.2 19.8 39.8
2006 Hood Canal 65.0 37.1 27.9 65.0 74.1 −9.1 −9.1
2006 US Strait JDF 40.0 11.7 28.3 20.0 9.1 10.9 30.9
2007 Skagit 35.0 33.2 1.8 60.0 37.1 22.9 −2.1
2007 Stillaguamish 50.0 38.5 11.5 50.0 25.1 24.9 24.9
2007 Snohomish 40.0 39.0 1.0 60.0 25.2 34.8 14.8
2007 Hood Canal 65.0 45.6 19.4 65.0 47.8 17.2 17.2
2007 US Strait JDF 60.0 12.3 47.7 20.0 12.6 7.4 47.4
2008 Skagit 35.0 30.1 4.9 35.0 32.0 3.0 3.0
2008 Stillaguamish 50.0 37.8 12.2 35.0 23.3 11.7 26.7
2008 Snohomish 40.0 34.5 5.5 20.0 27.5 −7.5 12.5
2008 Hood Canal 45.0 44.9 0.1 45.0 42.5 2.5 2.5
2008 US Strait JDF 40.0 11.0 29.0 20.0 8.8 11.2 31.2
2009 Skagit 35.0 32.7 2.3 60.0 30.6 29.4 4.4
2009 Stillaguamish 35.0 33.4 1.6 50.0 28.2 21.8 6.8
2009 Snohomish 40.0 26.5 13.5 60.0 26.4 33.6 13.6
2009 Hood Canal 65.0 47.3 17.7 65.0 53.7 11.3 11.3
2009 US Strait JDF 40.0 11.9 28.1 40.0 15.2 24.8 24.8
2010 Skagit 60.0 36.9 23.1 60.0 47.3 12.7 12.7
2010 Stillaguamish 50.0 37.5 12.5 35.0 9.4 25.6 40.6
2010 Snohomish 40.0 32.6 7.4 40.0 9.7 30.3 30.3
2010 Hood Canal 45.0 43.2 1.8 20.0 71.3 −51.3 −26.3
2010 US Strait JDF 20.0 11.3 8.7 40.0 8.2 31.8 11.8
2011 Skagit 60.0 34.9 25.1 60.0 43.8 16.2 16.2
2011 Stillaguamish 50.0 26.0 24.0 50.0 18.5 31.5 31.5
2011 Snohomish 60.0 25.9 34.1 60.0 18.9 41.1 41.1
2011 Hood Canal 65.0 40.2 24.8 65.0 57.1 7.9 7.9
2011 US Strait JDF 40.0 10.9 29.1 40.0 8.4 31.6 31.6
2012 Skagit 35.0 30.6 4.4 60.0 33.3 26.7 1.7
2012 Stillaguamish 50.0 29.0 21.0 50.0 25.4 24.6 24.6
2012 Snohomish 40.0 28.6 11.4 60.0 25.6 34.4 14.4
2012 Hood Canal 65.0 49.8 15.2 65.0 58.6 6.4 6.4
2012 US Strait JDF 40.0 12.9 27.1 40.0 12.1 27.9 27.9
2013 Skagit 60.0 36.0 24.0 60.0 43.1 16.9 16.9
2013 Stillaguamish 50.0 28.0 22.0 50.0 22.6 27.4 27.4
2013 Snohomish 60.0 25.2 34.8 60.0 28.5 31.5 31.5
2013 Hood Canal 45.0 45.2 −0.2 45.0 57.7 −12.7 −12.7
2013 US Strait JDF 40.0 12.9 27.1 20.0 13.7 6.3 26.3
2014 Skagit 60.0 39.8 20.2 35.0 52.0 −17.0 8.0
2014 Stillaguamish 50.0 33.1 16.9 50.0 27.1 22.9 22.9
2014 Snohomish 60.0 31.6 28.4 40.0 30.6 9.4 29.4
2014 Hood Canal 65.0 57.1 7.9 65.0 68.3 −3.3 −3.3
2014 US Strait JDF 40.0 13.0 27.0 40.0 16.8 23.2 23.2
2015 Skagit 60.0 39.1 20.9 20.0 62.7 −42.7 −2.7
2015 Stillaguamish 50.0 34.6 15.4 20.0 46.6 −26.6 3.4
2015 Snohomish 60.0 32.9 27.1 20.0 53.6 −33.6 6.4
2015 Hood Canal 65.0 54.1 10.9 65.0 58.7 6.3 6.3
2015 US Strait JDF 20.0 12.6 7.4 20.0 18.1 1.9 1.9
2016 Skagit 20.0 7.4 12.6 35.0 19.9 15.1 0.1
2016 Stillaguamish 20.0 8.0 12.0 35.0 16.5 18.5 3.5
2016 Snohomish 20.0 6.6 13.4 40.0 18.5 21.5 1.5
2016 Hood Canal 45.0 41.3 3.7 45.0 40.1 4.9 4.9
2016 US Strait JDF 20.0 5.2 14.8 20.0 3.0 17.0 17.0
2017 Skagit 20.0 11.1 8.9 20.0 9.4 10.6 10.6
2017 Stillaguamish 20.0 8.7 11.3 20.0 11.8 8.2 8.2
2017 Snohomish 40.0 15.4 24.6 20.0 21.5 −1.5 18.5
2017 Hood Canal 65.0 40.6 24.4 45.0 35.6 9.4 29.4
2017 US Strait JDF 40.0 4.9 35.1 20.0 5.6 14.4 34.4
2018 Skagit 35.0 31.1 3.9 35.0 48.4 −13.4 −13.4
2018 Stillaguamish 35.0 34.6 0.4 50.0 22.5 27.5 12.5
2018 Snohomish 40.0 33.7 6.3 40.0 25.1 14.9 14.9
2018 Hood Canal 65.0 42.7 22.3 20.0 57.3 −37.3 7.7
2018 US Strait JDF 20.0 6.7 13.3 20.0 7.9 12.1 12.1
2019 Skagit 35.0 32.4 2.6 35.0 48.2 −13.2 −13.2
2019 Stillaguamish 50.0 22.7 27.3 35.0 20.3 14.7 29.7
2019 Snohomish 40.0 19.6 20.4 20.0 17.2 2.8 22.8
2019 Hood Canal 45.0 44.5 0.5 20.0 46.1 −26.1 −1.1
2019 US Strait JDF 20.0 8.9 11.1 20.0 12.0 8.0 8.0
2020 Skagit 35.0 30.0 5.0 35.0 42.6 −7.6 −7.6
2020 Stillaguamish 35.0 17.9 17.1 50.0 12.6 37.4 22.4
2020 Snohomish 20.0 12.8 7.2 20.0 10.6 9.4 9.4
2020 Hood Canal 45.0 42.4 2.6 45.0 28.7 16.3 16.3
2020 US Strait JDF 20.0 9.0 11.0 20.0 7.1 12.9 12.9
2021 Skagit 35.0 32.5 2.5 60.0 32.6 27.4 2.4
2021 Stillaguamish 50.0 28.7 21.3 50.0 10.6 39.4 39.4
2021 Snohomish 40.0 28.6 11.4 40.0 11.2 28.8 28.8
2021 Hood Canal 45.0 43.3 1.7 65.0 24.8 40.2 20.2
2021 US Strait JDF 20.0 9.1 10.9 40.0 7.1 32.9 12.9
2022 Skagit 60.0 39.5 20.5 60.0 25.6 34.4 34.4
2022 Stillaguamish 50.0 36.1 13.9 50.0 9.9 40.1 40.1
2022 Snohomish 40.0 33.7 6.3 40.0 8.1 31.9 31.9
2022 Hood Canal 45.0 44.3 0.7 45.0 54.1 −9.1 −9.1
2022 US Strait JDF 20.0 10.9 9.1 40.0 7.7 32.3 12.3

10 Appendix: FRAM Pre and Post-Season Command Files

Table 10.1: Pre- and post-season command files and base period used in FRAM to evaluate [ ]{.quarto-shortcode__ data-is-shortcode=“1” data-raw=“”} [ ]{.quarto-shortcode__ data-is-shortcode=“1” data-raw=“”} over catch years 2004 through 2023. “Post-season Original” command files are those used to generate estimates for the Annual [ ]{.quarto-shortcode__ data-is-shortcode=“1” data-raw=“”} Report provided to the Southern Panel during the [ ]{.quarto-shortcode__ data-is-shortcode=“1” data-raw=“”} Annual Meeting.
Catch Year Pre-season U.S. Pre-season Canada Post-season Original Post-season Revised Base Period Used in Revised BKFRAM Run
2004 0425.Cmd 0427.Cmd 04pa.Cmd BK04.Cmd CohoBase
2005 0519.Cmd P5at.Cmd 05p9bk.Cmd BK05.Cmd CohoBase87917
2006 0619.Cmd 0631.Cmd 06p4.Cmd BK06.Cmd CohoBase-86-92-NoUF86-Jan2008
2007 0714.Cmd 0714.Cmd 07JH.Cmd BK07.Cmd CohoBase-86-92-NoUF86-Jan2009
2008 0824.Cmd 0828.Cmd BK08.Cmd BK08.Cmd CohoBase-86-92-NoUF86-Feb2008
2009 0920.Cmd 0920.Cmd BK09.Cmd BK09.Cmd CohoBase-86-92-NoUF86-Feb2009
2010 1016.Cmd 1016.Cmd BK10 PSC Feb14 TBD CohoBase-86-92-NoUF86-Feb2009
2011 1116.Cmd TBD Coho2011Post_PSC 2013 TBD TBD
2012 1229.Cmd TBD Coho2012Post_PSC SSNPx2 Q 2014 TBD TBD
2013 bc-1323 all FRAM inputs TBD bk 2013 Final ver3 Feb 11 2015 TBD TBD
2014 bc-Coho1418 US and BC preseason 2014 TBD bc-BK2014 w TAMM inputs final#2 TBD TBD
2015 bc-Coho 1523 Final TBD bc-bkCoho2015 Final TBD TBD
2016 bc-Coho1637 rerun by CoTC TBD bc-BK2016 BPMar2013 final TBD TBD
2017 bc-Coho1731_Final TBD bc-BK Coho 2017 final take2 TBD TBD
2018 bc-Coho1830 TBD bc-BKCoho2018_A_2_a TBD TBD
2019 bc‐Coho1925 TBD bc‐BKCoho2019_A_2_d TBD TBD
2020 bc‐Coho2032 TBD bc‐BKCoho2020_A_2_c TBD TBD
2021 bc‐Coho2140_Final TBD bc‐BkCoho2021_A_2 TBD TBD
2022 TBD TBD Not yet available Not yet available Not yet available
2023 TBD TBD Not yet available Not yet available Not yet available

11 Appendix: List of indicator stocks by management units

Table 11.1: Coded-wire-tag indicator stocks and brood years with single index tag (SIT) and groups for each Coho Salmon , beginning with brood year 1983. Indicator stocks are hatchery-produced Coho Salmon unless specified as “Wild” (Release data downloaded from RMIS 1-10-2023). SIT groups may be either marked or unmarked releases of Coho Salmon. groups are marked (adipose-fin clipped) and unmarked pairs of Coho Salmon.
Management Unit Indicator Stock Brood Yr SIT Brood Yr
Southern BC MUs
Lower Fraser Inch Creek Hatchery 83-95,14-19 96-13
Salmon River (Wild)1 84-99,01,03,05-07 NA
Chilliwack R. H. (Chilliwack R.) 83-95 96-02
Chehalis R. H. (Chehalis R.) 83-97
Interior Fraser Spius Cr. H. (Coldwater R.)2 84-94,96-98,03-19 99-02
Spius Cr. H. (Salmon R./TOMF)3 95-96,99,01-02,04-05,07,14,17-19
Spius Cr. H. (Spius Cr.)4 94-96,99-00 97-98
Spius Cr. H. (Eagle R.) 10-13,15-19
Chilliwack R. H. (Coldwater R.)5 16-19
Eagle R. H. (Salmon R.)6 83-93
Eagle R. H. (Eagle R.)7 83-93
Eagle R. H. (Perry R.)8 84-86
Dunn Cr. H. (Dunn Cr.)9 86-87,89-90,92,95,98-07
Dunn Cr. H. (Dunn Lake)10 84-91,94,97
Dunn Cr. H. (Lemieux Cr.)11 83-86,88,92-93,97-99,03,06-09
Dunn Cr. H. (Louis Cr.)12 88-94,97-07
Dunn Cr. H. (Ianson Ch.)13 88-91,94-95,00-02,04-05
Eagle River (Wild)14 00-03 NA
Lemieux Creek (Wild) 92-93 NA
Strait of Georgia Mainland Capilano R. H. 83-97,00
Lang Creek H. (Lang Cr.)15 87-91,95-96,08-09
Strait of Georgia Vancouver Island Quinsam R. H. 83-85,18-19 96-17
Big Qualicum R. H. 83-85,87-95,03-15,17-19 96-02
Goldstream R. H. 91-94,03-11 96-02
Puntledge R. H.16 83-97,99-02,09-10,19
Black Creek (Wild)17 83-17 NA
US Inside MUs
Skagit Marblemount H. (Skagit R.) 83-93 94-21
Baker River (Wild)18 83-97,00-22 NA
Stillaguamish19 Wallace R. H. (Skykomish R.) 83-95 96-21
Harvey Creek H. 91,07,14,16-20
Stillaguamish R. (Wild) 84-87 NA
Snohomish Wallace R. H. (Skykomish R.) 83-95 96-21
Bernie Gobin H. (Tulalip Cr.)20 83-21
Hood Canal Quilcene NFH 87-95 96-21
Quilcene Bay Sea Pens 88,90,93,95,02-11,13-14 96-01
Port Gamble Bay Pens 83-95,04-21 96-03
George Adams H. (Skokomish R.) 83-94,96 95,97-21
Big Beef Creek (Wild)21 83-21 NA
Strait of Juan de Fuca Lower Elwha H.22 85-94,12,15,18 95-11,13-14,16-17,09-20
Dungeness H. 83,86,89,91-94,05-08,18-20
Hoko Falls H. 18-20
Hoko and Salmon Creek (Wild) 84-87,08 NA
US Outside MUs
Quillayute Sol Duc H. 83-88,90-95 96-21
Various Tributaries (Wild)23 83-86,88-92
Hoh Chalaat Creek H. 84,86-89
Canyon Springs Pond 86-87
Sol Duc H. 85,87
Hoh River (Wild)24 83-87,03,05-12 NA
Queets Quinault Lake H. 83-84,90-92
Salmon R. Fish Culture 83,85-94 95-21
Queets/Clearwater wild25 83-11,13-20 NA
Grays Harbor Bingham Creek H. 83-94 95-21
Aberdeen Net Pens 88-90,92-94
Humptulips H. (Stevens Cr.) 83-94,06,10-12,19-20 95-96
Bingham Creek (Wild)26 83-20 NA
Stevens & Scatter Creek (Wild) 83-90,92-93 NA
Chehalis Upriver (Wild)27 83-97,00-20 NA
Skookumchuck H. 83,89,98,06-07,09, 11-12 98

12 Appendix: U.S. DITs

Data provided here was queried from the RMIS release database on 1/27/2025.

12.1 Skagit MU

Table 12.1: Double-index tag codes released within the Skagit MU, brood years 1994 through 2022.
Brood Year Hatchery DIT Group ID Tag Code Mark # Released
1994 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04199600000211 635909 Clipped 99623
1994 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04199600000211 635906 Unclipped 45865
1995 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04199700000212 636158 Clipped 42489
1995 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04199700000212 636201 Unclipped 42566
1996 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04199800000196 630545 Clipped 43348
1996 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04199800000196 630546 Unclipped 45089
1997 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04199900000195 630554 Clipped 42299
1997 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04199900000195 636211 Unclipped 41906
1998 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200000000209 631107 Clipped 40398
1998 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200000000209 631108 Unclipped 40525
1999 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200100000199 630299 Clipped 45831
1999 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200100000199 630298 Unclipped 45052
2000 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200200000200 630950 Clipped 10582
2000 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200200000200 630387 Clipped 10777
2000 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200200000200 630946 Clipped 10783
2000 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200200000200 630948 Clipped 10861
2000 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200200000200 630386 Unclipped 10988
2000 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200200000200 630947 Unclipped 10969
2000 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200200000200 630949 Unclipped 10935
2000 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200200000200 630945 Unclipped 10988
2001 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200300000206 631257 Clipped 10745
2001 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200300000206 631259 Clipped 11240
2001 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200300000206 631253 Clipped 9013
2001 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200300000206 631255 Clipped 9975
2001 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200300000206 631254 Unclipped 7472
2001 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200300000206 631069 Unclipped 6887
2001 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200300000206 631256 Unclipped 9063
2001 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200300000206 631258 Unclipped 8999
2002 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200400000192 632090 Clipped 11046
2002 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200400000192 632088 Clipped 10781
2002 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200400000192 632089 Clipped 6947
2002 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200400000192 632091 Clipped 10861
2002 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200400000192 632092 Unclipped 10967
2002 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200400000192 632094 Unclipped 10878
2002 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200400000192 632093 Unclipped 9781
2002 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200400000192 632095 Unclipped 11100
2003 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200500000191 631997 Clipped 46348
2003 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200500000191 632289 Unclipped 46823
2004 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200600000183 633099 Clipped 47305
2004 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200600000183 633197 Unclipped 41300
2005 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200700000184 633571 Clipped 43100
2005 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200700000184 633572 Unclipped 43575
2006 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200800000187 633691 Clipped 47072
2006 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200800000187 633690 Unclipped 47206
2007 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200900000180 634484 Clipped 44174
2007 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04200900000180 634485 Unclipped 44604
2008 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201000000181 634495 Clipped 43359
2008 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201000000181 634496 Unclipped 43568
2009 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201100000213 635381 Clipped 44465
2009 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201100000213 635382 Unclipped 43354
2010 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201200000215 635799 Clipped 41840
2010 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201200000215 635798 Unclipped 42100
2011 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201300000030 636377 Clipped 45068
2011 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201300000030 636376 Unclipped 45650
2012 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201400000080 636555 Clipped 43388
2012 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201400000080 636554 Unclipped 43163
2013 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201500000796 636697 Clipped 47575
2013 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201500000796 636696 Unclipped 47670
2014 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201600000837 636839 Clipped 43867
2014 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201600000837 636840 Unclipped 43868
2015 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201700000878 636993 Clipped 46326
2015 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201700000878 636994 Unclipped 46309
2016 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201800000906 637089 Clipped 36508
2016 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201800000906 637088 Unclipped 36893
2017 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201900000951 637272 Clipped 41744
2017 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04201900000951 637271 Unclipped 41842
2018 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04202000001028 637555 Clipped 44326
2018 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04202000001028 637554 Unclipped 46243
2019 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04202100001068 637678 Clipped 41895
2019 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04202100001068 637677 Unclipped 42653
2020 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04202200001130 638003 Clipped 40507
2020 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04202200001130 638002 Unclipped 40547
2021 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04202300001147 638230 Clipped 45944
2021 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04202300001147 638229 Unclipped 45747
2022 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04202400001224 638131 Clipped 41738
2022 MARBLEMOUNT HATCHERY 04202400001224 638130 Unclipped 47290

12.2 Stillaguamish MU

No Double-index-tag groups have been released in the Stillaguamish to date.

12.3 Snohomish MU

Table 12.2: Double-index tag codes released within the Snohomish MU, brood years 1996 through 2022.
Brood Year Hatchery DIT Group ID Tag Code Mark # Released
1996 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04199800000223 636209 Clipped 46251
1996 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04199800000223 636210 Unclipped 45718
1997 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04199900000225 630810 Clipped 45004
1997 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04199900000225 630809 Unclipped 45091
1998 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200000000230 631237 Clipped 22350
1998 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200000000230 631223 Clipped 20665
1998 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200000000230 631236 Unclipped 22524
1998 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200000000230 631238 Unclipped 23049
1999 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200100000226 631160 Clipped 24591
1999 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200100000226 630466 Clipped 23171
1999 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200100000227 630467 Unclipped 21154
1999 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200100000227 631052 Unclipped 21698
2000 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200200000229 631286 Clipped 20186
2000 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200200000229 631287 Clipped 19372
2000 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200200000229 631284 Unclipped 19384
2000 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200200000229 631285 Unclipped 19960
2001 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200300000237 631576 Clipped 20672
2001 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200300000237 631578 Clipped 18935
2001 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200300000237 631575 Unclipped 22377
2001 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200300000237 631577 Unclipped 21263
2002 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200400000236 632199 Clipped 23416
2002 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200400000236 632196 Clipped 23036
2002 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200400000236 632198 Unclipped 23379
2002 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200400000236 632197 Unclipped 23280
2003 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200500000238 632679 Clipped 43217
2003 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200500000238 632678 Unclipped 43575
2004 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200600000242 633266 Clipped 30182
2004 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200600000242 633267 Unclipped 30300
2005 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200700000240 633680 Clipped 46804
2005 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200700000240 633681 Unclipped 48378
2006 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200800000245 634176 Clipped 44693
2006 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200800000245 634175 Unclipped 45883
2007 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200900000246 634493 Clipped 45604
2007 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04200900000246 634494 Unclipped 45310
2008 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201000000219 634892 Clipped 42318
2008 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201000000219 634893 Unclipped 42077
2009 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201100000221 635895 Clipped 42851
2009 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201100000221 635896 Unclipped 42508
2010 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201200000217 635988 Clipped 44305
2010 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201200000217 635990 Unclipped 45293
2011 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201300000034 636383 Clipped 44056
2011 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201300000034 636384 Unclipped 44425
2012 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201400000690 636593 Clipped 44397
2012 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201400000690 636594 Unclipped 44658
2013 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201500000852 636881 Clipped 44229
2013 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201500000852 636880 Unclipped 44451
2014 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201600000838 636843 Clipped 44744
2014 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201600000838 636844 Unclipped 44802
2015 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201700000883 637012 Clipped 47502
2015 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201700000883 637013 Unclipped 47989
2016 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201800000934 637264 Clipped 46727
2016 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201800000934 637263 Unclipped 47068
2017 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201900000947 637274 Clipped 44690
2017 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04201900000947 637275 Unclipped 44914
2018 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04202000001027 637557 Clipped 45340
2018 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04202000001027 637556 Unclipped 45693
2019 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04202100001069 637680 Clipped 46779
2019 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04202100001069 637681 Unclipped 51741
2020 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04202200001102 637914 Clipped 41466
2020 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04202200001102 637841 Unclipped 41726
2021 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04202300001148 638233 Clipped 40749
2021 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04202300001148 638232 Unclipped 41033
2022 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04202400001191 638331 Clipped 38854
2022 WALLACE R HATCHERY 04202400001191 638330 Unclipped 38858

12.4 Hood Canal MU

Table 12.3: Double-index tag codes released within the Hood Canal MU, brood years 1995 through 2022.
Brood Year Hatchery DIT Group ID Tag Code Mark # Released
1995 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04199700000253 636142 Clipped 45065
1995 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04199700000253 636143 Unclipped 45242
1997 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04199900000269 630526 Clipped 20817
1997 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04199900000269 630528 Clipped 22279
1997 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04199900000269 630527 Unclipped 21728
1997 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04199900000269 630529 Unclipped 22312
1998 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200000000262 630918 Clipped 42496
1998 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200000000262 630917 Unclipped 41288
1999 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200100000268 630372 Clipped 24221
1999 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200100000268 630373 Clipped 25178
1999 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200100000268 630374 Unclipped 25207
1999 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200100000268 630371 Unclipped 26198
2000 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200200000270 630591 Clipped 43686
2000 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200200000270 630592 Unclipped 43518
2001 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200300000260 631518 Clipped 21359
2001 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200300000260 631517 Clipped 22260
2001 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200300000260 631473 Unclipped 21763
2001 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200300000260 631474 Unclipped 21881
2002 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200400000273 632079 Clipped 22036
2002 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200400000273 632078 Clipped 21650
2002 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200400000273 632080 Unclipped 21612
2002 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200400000273 632081 Unclipped 22269
2003 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200500000272 632290 Clipped 41584
2003 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200500000272 632672 Unclipped 41626
2004 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200600000280 633265 Clipped 44965
2004 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200600000280 633264 Unclipped 44879
2005 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200700000283 633679 Clipped 43785
2005 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200700000283 633678 Unclipped 43193
2006 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200800000277 634168 Clipped 45482
2006 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200800000277 634167 Unclipped 53098
2007 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200900000278 634486 Clipped 45669
2007 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04200900000278 634487 Unclipped 45669
2008 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201000000249 634887 Clipped 44613
2008 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201000000249 634888 Unclipped 45371
2009 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201100000255 635385 Clipped 45698
2009 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201100000255 635386 Unclipped 45815
2010 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201200000258 635985 Clipped 45259
2010 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201200000258 635989 Unclipped 45568
2011 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201300000032 636381 Clipped 44504
2011 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201300000032 636380 Unclipped 45042
2012 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201400000081 636559 Clipped 44820
2012 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201400000081 636558 Unclipped 44820
2013 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201500000798 636703 Clipped 44158
2013 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201500000798 636704 Unclipped 43284
2014 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201600000839 636847 Clipped 46640
2014 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201600000839 636848 Unclipped 46999
2015 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201700000879 636997 Clipped 46750
2015 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201700000879 636998 Unclipped 46375
2016 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201800000900 637085 Clipped 46812
2016 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201800000900 637084 Unclipped 47018
2017 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201900000948 637276 Clipped 44442
2017 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04201900000948 637277 Unclipped 45313
2018 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04202000001038 637558 Clipped 45740
2018 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04202000001038 637568 Unclipped 45574
2019 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04202100001066 637672 Clipped 45368
2019 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04202100001066 637673 Unclipped 45368
2020 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04202200001131 638007 Clipped 47031
2020 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04202200001131 638006 Unclipped 46772
2021 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04202300001150 638120 Clipped 45565
2021 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04202300001150 638237 Unclipped 45712
2022 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04202400001216 638133 Clipped 47055
2022 GEORGE ADAMS HATCHERY 04202400001216 638132 Unclipped 47759
1996 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 1419989004 213106 Clipped 50017
1996 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 1419989004 636162 Unclipped 49500
1997 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 141999DI05 210133 Clipped 49420
1997 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 141999DI05 636216 Unclipped 52593
1998 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 142000DI03 631157 Clipped 49346
1998 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 142000DI03 210136 Unclipped 49077
1999 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 142001DI05 210262 Clipped 44146
1999 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 142001DI05 630297 Unclipped 45375
2000 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 142002DI05 210193 Clipped 44707
2000 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 142002DI05 630977 Unclipped 45664
2001 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 142003DI05 210398 Clipped 44779
2001 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 142003DI05 210399 Unclipped 45159
2002 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 142004DI04 210427 Clipped 45343
2002 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 142004DI04 631527 Unclipped 45397
2003 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 142005DI04 210554 Clipped 43342
2003 PORT GAMBLE BAY PENS 142005DI04 632675 Unclipped 43110
1996 QUILCENE BAY SEA PEN 1419989006 054038 Clipped 42377
1996 QUILCENE BAY SEA PEN 1419989006 055019 Unclipped 44859
1997 QUILCENE BAY SEA PEN 141999DI02 051704 Clipped 48875
1997 QUILCENE BAY SEA PEN 141999DI02 051331 Unclipped 45788
1998 QUILCENE BAY SEA PEN 142000DI06 055125 Clipped 48023
1998 QUILCENE BAY SEA PEN 142000DI06 055126 Unclipped 48640
1999 QUILCENE BAY SEA PEN 142001DI04 050295 Clipped 41710
1999 QUILCENE BAY SEA PEN 142001DI04 050296 Unclipped 42407
2000 QUILCENE BAY SEA PEN 142002DI04 050664 Clipped 46542
2000 QUILCENE BAY SEA PEN 142002DI04 050599 Unclipped 45880
2001 QUILCENE BAY SEA PEN 142003DI04 050999 Clipped 23000
2001 QUILCENE BAY SEA PEN 142003DI04 051064 Unclipped 20000
1996 QUILCENE NFH 071998WC15 055026 Clipped 11553
1996 QUILCENE NFH 071998WC15 055028 Clipped 11211
1996 QUILCENE NFH 071998WC15 055027 Clipped 11314
1996 QUILCENE NFH 071998WC15 055025 Clipped 11333
1996 QUILCENE NFH 071998WC15 630260 Unclipped 10455
1996 QUILCENE NFH 071998WC15 630263 Unclipped 10397
1996 QUILCENE NFH 071998WC15 630301 Unclipped 10194
1996 QUILCENE NFH 071998WC15 630258 Unclipped 9815
1997 QUILCENE NFH 071999WC35B2 051542 Clipped 12570
1997 QUILCENE NFH 071999WC35B2 051323 Unclipped 11736
1997 QUILCENE NFH 071999WC35B5 051543 Clipped 12234
1997 QUILCENE NFH 071999WC35B5 051324 Unclipped 11305
1997 QUILCENE NFH 071999WC35B8 051544 Clipped 11789
1997 QUILCENE NFH 071999WC35B8 051325 Unclipped 11451
1997 QUILCENE NFH 071999WC35D7 051552 Clipped 11820
1997 QUILCENE NFH 071999WC35D7 051326 Unclipped 11743
1998 QUILCENE NFH 072000WC50B3 055159 Clipped 12031
1998 QUILCENE NFH 072000WC50B3 055160 Unclipped 11602
1998 QUILCENE NFH 072000WC50B5 055161 Clipped 12061
1998 QUILCENE NFH 072000WC50B5 055162 Unclipped 10843
1998 QUILCENE NFH 072000WC50B7 055163 Clipped 11978
1998 QUILCENE NFH 072000WC50B7 055204 Unclipped 9900
1998 QUILCENE NFH 072000WC50D5 055205 Clipped 12123
1998 QUILCENE NFH 072000WC50D5 055206 Unclipped 12271
1999 QUILCENE NFH 072001WC25B3 050378 Clipped 12468
1999 QUILCENE NFH 072001WC25B3 050379 Unclipped 9387
1999 QUILCENE NFH 072001WC25B5 050380 Clipped 10611
1999 QUILCENE NFH 072001WC25B5 050381 Unclipped 12971
1999 QUILCENE NFH 072001WC25B7 050382 Clipped 11113
1999 QUILCENE NFH 072001WC25B7 050383 Unclipped 9020
1999 QUILCENE NFH 072001WC25D5 050384 Clipped 12077
1999 QUILCENE NFH 072001WC25D5 050385 Unclipped 10551
2000 QUILCENE NFH 072002WC80B3 050591 Clipped 12564
2000 QUILCENE NFH 072002WC80B3 050592 Unclipped 12435
2000 QUILCENE NFH 072002WC80B5 050593 Clipped 11659
2000 QUILCENE NFH 072002WC80B5 050594 Unclipped 11863
2000 QUILCENE NFH 072002WC80B8 050595 Clipped 12596
2000 QUILCENE NFH 072002WC80B8 050596 Unclipped 11870
2000 QUILCENE NFH 072002WC80D6 050597 Clipped 12494
2000 QUILCENE NFH 072002WC80D6 050598 Unclipped 12625
2001 QUILCENE NFH 072003UILB40440 051076 Clipped 11449
2001 QUILCENE NFH 072003UILB40440 051077 Unclipped 12790
2001 QUILCENE NFH 072003UILB60440 051078 Clipped 11640
2001 QUILCENE NFH 072003UILB60440 051079 Unclipped 12017
2001 QUILCENE NFH 072003UILB80440 051080 Clipped 12148
2001 QUILCENE NFH 072003UILB80440 051081 Unclipped 12158
2002 QUILCENE NFH 0720040500 051672 Clipped 11090
2002 QUILCENE NFH 0720040500 051674 Clipped 11072
2002 QUILCENE NFH 0720040500 051668 Clipped 10243
2002 QUILCENE NFH 0720040500 051670 Clipped 10708
2002 QUILCENE NFH 0720040500 051673 Unclipped 11118
2002 QUILCENE NFH 0720040500 051675 Unclipped 10450
2002 QUILCENE NFH 0720040500 051669 Unclipped 11785
2002 QUILCENE NFH 0720040500 051671 Unclipped 11728
2003 QUILCENE NFH 072005QL550B2 052296 Clipped 11221
2003 QUILCENE NFH 072005QL550B2 052297 Unclipped 11145
2003 QUILCENE NFH 072005QL550B4 052298 Clipped 10143
2003 QUILCENE NFH 072005QL550B4 052299 Unclipped 10117
2003 QUILCENE NFH 072005QL550B7 052364 Clipped 10404
2003 QUILCENE NFH 072005QL550B7 052365 Unclipped 10272
2003 QUILCENE NFH 072005QL550D6 052366 Clipped 9239
2003 QUILCENE NFH 072005QL550D6 052367 Unclipped 7043
2004 QUILCENE NFH 0720060600 052699 Clipped 11263
2004 QUILCENE NFH 0720060600 052765 Clipped 11502
2004 QUILCENE NFH 0720060600 052767 Clipped 12562
2004 QUILCENE NFH 0720060600 052769 Clipped 12467
2004 QUILCENE NFH 0720060600 052768 Unclipped 13144
2004 QUILCENE NFH 0720060600 052764 Unclipped 11591
2004 QUILCENE NFH 0720060600 052766 Unclipped 12816
2004 QUILCENE NFH 0720060600 052770 Unclipped 11540
2005 QUILCENE NFH 0720070635 053284 Clipped 6321
2005 QUILCENE NFH 0720070635 053280 Clipped 12889
2005 QUILCENE NFH 0720070635 053282 Clipped 11343
2005 QUILCENE NFH 0720070635 053278 Clipped 11027
2005 QUILCENE NFH 0720070635 053285 Unclipped 6408
2005 QUILCENE NFH 0720070635 053283 Unclipped 10616
2005 QUILCENE NFH 0720070635 053281 Unclipped 12160
2005 QUILCENE NFH 0720070635 053279 Unclipped 11345
2006 QUILCENE NFH 0720080680 053972 Clipped 8566
2006 QUILCENE NFH 0720080680 053976 Clipped 9569
2006 QUILCENE NFH 0720080680 053965 Clipped 6832
2006 QUILCENE NFH 0720080680 053974 Clipped 9172
2006 QUILCENE NFH 0720080680 053977 Unclipped 9510
2006 QUILCENE NFH 0720080680 053966 Unclipped 6923
2006 QUILCENE NFH 0720080680 053973 Unclipped 8469
2006 QUILCENE NFH 0720080680 053975 Unclipped 9445
2007 QUILCENE NFH 0720090775 054479 Clipped 7168
2007 QUILCENE NFH 0720090775 054477 Clipped 9858
2007 QUILCENE NFH 0720090775 054473 Clipped 9580
2007 QUILCENE NFH 0720090775 054475 Clipped 9861
2007 QUILCENE NFH 0720090775 054478 Unclipped 9647
2007 QUILCENE NFH 0720090775 054480 Unclipped 9717
2007 QUILCENE NFH 0720090775 054474 Unclipped 9578
2007 QUILCENE NFH 0720090775 054476 Unclipped 10006
2008 QUILCENE NFH 0720100875 054765 Clipped 8422
2008 QUILCENE NFH 0720100875 054769 Clipped 9919
2008 QUILCENE NFH 0720100875 054771 Clipped 9691
2008 QUILCENE NFH 0720100875 054767 Clipped 9903
2008 QUILCENE NFH 0720100875 054770 Unclipped 10025
2008 QUILCENE NFH 0720100875 054772 Unclipped 9935
2008 QUILCENE NFH 0720100875 054766 Unclipped 9961
2008 QUILCENE NFH 0720100875 054768 Unclipped 10405
2009 QUILCENE NFH 0720110975 055175 Clipped 10450
2009 QUILCENE NFH 0720110975 055173 Clipped 10249
2009 QUILCENE NFH 0720110975 055176 Unclipped 10126
2009 QUILCENE NFH 0720110975 055174 Unclipped 10350
2010 QUILCENE NFH 0720121075 055464 Clipped 24936
2010 QUILCENE NFH 0720121075 055334 Clipped 9817
2010 QUILCENE NFH 0720121075 055328 Clipped 9429
2010 QUILCENE NFH 0720121075 055465 Unclipped 24752
2010 QUILCENE NFH 0720121075 055335 Unclipped 10012
2010 QUILCENE NFH 0720121075 055329 Unclipped 9495
2011 QUILCENE NFH 0720131175 055484 Clipped 71292
2011 QUILCENE NFH 0720131175 055483 Unclipped 70746
2012 QUILCENE NFH 0720141275 055308 Clipped 72256
2012 QUILCENE NFH 0720141275 055478 Unclipped 72744
2013 QUILCENE NFH 0720151375 055306 Clipped 73938
2013 QUILCENE NFH 0720151375 055307 Unclipped 73509
2014 QUILCENE NFH 0720161475 055751 Clipped 71079
2014 QUILCENE NFH 0720161475 055680 Unclipped 70368
2015 QUILCENE NFH 0720171575 055895 Clipped 79057
2015 QUILCENE NFH 0720171575 055896 Unclipped 79146
2016 QUILCENE NFH 0720181675 056037 Clipped 70322
2016 QUILCENE NFH 0720181675 056038 Unclipped 70095
2017 QUILCENE NFH 0720191775 055904 Clipped 82296
2017 QUILCENE NFH 0720191775 055905 Unclipped 80181
2018 QUILCENE NFH 0720201875 056166 Clipped 79847
2018 QUILCENE NFH 0720201875 056167 Unclipped 79855
2019 QUILCENE NFH 0720211975 056330 Clipped 77453
2019 QUILCENE NFH 0720211975 056331 Unclipped 79039
2020 QUILCENE NFH 0720222075 056527 Clipped 78013
2020 QUILCENE NFH 0720222075 056526 Unclipped 77835
2021 QUILCENE NFH 0720232175 056679 Clipped 75411
2021 QUILCENE NFH 0720232175 056678 Unclipped 78258
2022 QUILCENE NFH 0720242275 056682 Clipped 77293
2022 QUILCENE NFH 0720242275 056681 Unclipped 78553

12.5 Strait of Juan de Fuca MU

Table 12.4: Double-index tag codes released within the Strait of Juan de Fuca (SJDF) MU, brood years 1995 through 2022.
Brood Year Hatchery DIT Group ID Tag Code Mark # Released
2011 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142012elwha 211025 Clipped 76261
2011 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142012elwha 636189 Unclipped 66615
2013 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142013elwha 211086 Clipped 78416
2013 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142013elwha 636634 Unclipped 75654
2014 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142014elwha 211129 Clipped 50318
2014 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142014elwha 636774 Unclipped 76104
2016 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142016elwa 211207 Clipped 76635
2016 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142016elwa 637134 Unclipped 77346
2017 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142019ELWH 211295 Clipped 76577
2017 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142019ELWH 637320 Unclipped 76791
2019 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142021ELWHA2 211382 Clipped 81324
2019 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142021ELWHA2 637705 Unclipped 83328
2020 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142022ELWHA2 211499 Clipped 77209
2020 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142022ELWHA2 637710 Unclipped 77162
2021 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142023ELWHA2 211561 Clipped 80177
2021 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142023ELWHA2 638259 Unclipped 80277
2022 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142024ELWHA 211699 Clipped 74137
2022 LOWER ELWHA HATCH - HOUSE 142024ELWHA 630009 Unclipped 81615
1995 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 1419979001 636221 Clipped 48511
1995 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 1419979001 212923 Clipped 29639
1995 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 1419979001 212615 Unclipped 72909
1996 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 1419989002 213046 Clipped 78862
1996 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 1419989002 213048 Unclipped 75203
1997 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 141999DI03 213047 Clipped 74940
1997 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 141999DI03 630814 Unclipped 77378
1998 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142000DI04 210220 Clipped 79438
1998 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142000DI04 631101 Unclipped 76733
1999 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142001DI06 210171 Clipped 62465
1999 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142001DI06 631105 Unclipped 61865
2000 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142002DI06 630965 Clipped 70742
2000 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142002DI06 210192 Unclipped 71362
2001 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142003DI06 210222 Clipped 72867
2001 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142003DI06 210409 Unclipped 73722
2002 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142004DI05 210426 Clipped 74683
2002 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142004DI05 210376 Unclipped 75185
2003 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142005DI05 210549 Clipped 63274
2003 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142005DI05 632680 Unclipped 51084
2004 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142006DI04 210587 Clipped 77661
2004 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142006DI04 632692 Unclipped 78779
2005 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142007DI004 210676 Clipped 76159
2005 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142007DI004 633187 Unclipped 76246
2006 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142008DI001 633980 Clipped 78303
2006 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142008DI001 210747 Unclipped 79887
2007 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142009000005 210785 Clipped 78972
2007 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142009000005 634375 Unclipped 79013
2008 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142010elwha0 210839 Clipped 79575
2008 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142010elwha0 635084 Unclipped 79897
2009 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142010elwhac 210904 Clipped 80405
2009 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142010elwhac 635190 Unclipped 80086
2010 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142010elwha1 210956 Clipped 82395
2010 LOWER ELWHA HATCHERY 142010elwha1 635585 Unclipped 83081

12.6 Quillayute MU

Table 12.5: Double-index tag codes released within the Quillayute MU, brood years 1996 through 2022.
Brood Year Hatchery DIT Group ID Tag Code Mark # Released
1996 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199800000401 636305 Clipped 11785
1996 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199800000401 636303 Clipped 11894
1996 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199800000401 636302 Clipped 12086
1996 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199800000401 636301 Clipped 12070
1996 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199800000401 636304 Clipped 11782
1996 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199800000401 636306 Clipped 11716
1996 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199800000401 636260 Unclipped 12339
1996 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199800000401 636307 Unclipped 12192
1996 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199800000401 636308 Unclipped 12294
1996 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199800000401 636309 Unclipped 12446
1996 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199800000401 636310 Unclipped 12059
1996 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199800000401 636261 Unclipped 12368
1997 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199900000399 630927 Clipped 12206
1997 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199900000399 630928 Clipped 12166
1997 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199900000399 630926 Clipped 12133
1997 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199900000399 630924 Clipped 12183
1997 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199900000399 630925 Clipped 12156
1997 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199900000399 630929 Clipped 12290
1997 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199900000399 630933 Unclipped 12288
1997 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199900000399 630930 Unclipped 12375
1997 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199900000399 630931 Unclipped 12223
1997 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199900000399 630935 Unclipped 8360
1997 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199900000399 630932 Unclipped 12341
1997 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04199900000399 630934 Unclipped 12398
1998 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200000000397 631231 Clipped 36858
1998 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200000000397 631217 Clipped 34895
1998 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200000000397 631230 Unclipped 36134
1998 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200000000397 631216 Unclipped 36032
1999 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200100000400 630291 Clipped 71348
1999 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200100000400 630574 Unclipped 64087
2000 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200200000396 631181 Clipped 47890
2000 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200200000396 631275 Clipped 12501
2000 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200200000396 631277 Clipped 12140
2000 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200200000396 631274 Unclipped 12226
2000 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200200000396 631276 Unclipped 12016
2000 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200200000396 631180 Unclipped 48872
2001 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200300000390 631679 Clipped 12581
2001 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200300000390 631564 Clipped 50964
2001 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200300000390 631677 Clipped 12297
2001 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200300000390 631678 Unclipped 12359
2001 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200300000390 631565 Unclipped 51600
2001 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200300000390 631680 Unclipped 9780
2002 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200400000391 631988 Clipped 47031
2002 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200400000391 632265 Clipped 11580
2002 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200400000391 632266 Clipped 11778
2002 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200400000391 632267 Unclipped 11884
2002 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200400000391 632264 Unclipped 11482
2002 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200400000391 631685 Unclipped 48379
2003 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200500000389 632684 Clipped 73248
2003 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200500000389 632690 Unclipped 73234
2004 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200600000388 633189 Unclipped 75932
2004 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200600000388 633190 Clipped 74508
2005 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200700000395 633677 Clipped 72242
2005 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200700000395 633676 Unclipped 71195
2006 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200800000392 634091 Clipped 76439
2006 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200800000392 634090 Unclipped 76684
2007 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200900000394 633184 Clipped 75208
2007 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04200900000394 633183 Unclipped 75261
2008 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201000000403 634968 Clipped 77081
2008 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201000000403 634969 Unclipped 77549
2009 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201100000402 635464 Clipped 77397
2009 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201100000402 635465 Unclipped 75700
2010 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201200000404 635877 Clipped 80757
2010 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201200000404 635878 Unclipped 80185
2011 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201300000044 635881 Clipped 76456
2011 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201300000044 635882 Unclipped 76179
2012 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201400000039 636398 Clipped 79336
2012 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201400000039 636399 Unclipped 79205
2013 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201500000799 636708 Clipped 75551
2013 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201500000799 636709 Unclipped 76669
2014 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201600000846 636865 Clipped 75012
2014 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201600000846 636866 Unclipped 77281
2015 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201700000866 636913 Clipped 79705
2015 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201700000866 636914 Unclipped 79740
2016 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201800000921 637131 Clipped 75067
2016 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201800000921 637132 Unclipped 75027
2017 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201900000956 637321 Clipped 76883
2017 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04201900000956 637323 Unclipped 77503
2018 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04202000001008 637502 Clipped 74561
2018 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04202000001008 637501 Unclipped 74464
2019 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04202100001076 637707 Clipped 66913
2019 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04202100001076 637708 Unclipped 66913
2020 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04202200001135 638018 Clipped 73848
2020 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04202200001135 638019 Unclipped 74549
2021 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04202300001155 638167 Clipped 75201
2021 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04202300001155 638260 Unclipped 75248
2022 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04202400001232 638174 Clipped 77925
2022 SOLDUC HATCHERY 04202400001232 638173 Unclipped 77963

12.7 Hoh MU

No Double-index-tag groups have been released in the Hoh to date.

12.8 Queets MU

Table 12.6: Double-index tag codes released within the Queets MU, brood years 1995 through 2022.
Brood Year Hatchery DIT Group ID Tag Code Mark # Released
1995 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 1419979002 215502 Clipped 98204
1995 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 1419979002 636154 Unclipped 71275
1996 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 1419989003 630557 Clipped 73905
1996 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 1419989003 215503 Unclipped 98473
1997 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 141999DI04 630818 Clipped 72236
1997 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 141999DI04 210139 Unclipped 68208
1998 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142000DI05 210227 Clipped 68440
1998 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142000DI05 631103 Unclipped 72008
1999 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142001DI07 210198 Clipped 69441
1999 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142001DI07 630575 Unclipped 72796
2000 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142002DI07 210330 Clipped 72257
2000 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142002DI07 631190 Unclipped 71602
2001 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142003DI07 631413 Clipped 72882
2001 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142003DI07 210395 Unclipped 73408
2002 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142004DI06 210518 Clipped 74207
2002 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142004DI06 210499 Unclipped 40719
2002 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142004DI06 210505 Unclipped 33721
2003 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142005DI06 210572 Clipped 70869
2003 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142005DI06 632691 Unclipped 74130
2004 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142006DI05 210635 Clipped 79912
2004 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142006DI05 633191 Unclipped 78945
2005 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142007srcoho 633175 Clipped 73041
2005 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142007srcoho 210692 Unclipped 81321
2006 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142008D004 633481 Clipped 72133
2006 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142008D004 210731 Unclipped 81407
2007 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142009QUINC 210772 Clipped 68967
2007 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142009QUINC 634181 Unclipped 75056
2008 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142010quin001 210854 Clipped 73581
2008 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 142010quin001 634768 Unclipped 77578
2009 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172011Q0002 210924 Clipped 80105
2009 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172011Q0002 635189 Unclipped 81078
2010 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172012Q0002 210965 Clipped 79280
2010 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172012Q0002 635586 Unclipped 80161
2011 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172013Q0001 211003 Clipped 75171
2011 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172013Q0001 636188 Unclipped 74732
2012 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172014Q0002 211037 Clipped 80063
2012 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172014Q0002 636468 Unclipped 83283
2013 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172015Q0003 211038 Clipped 71623
2013 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172015Q0003 636631 Unclipped 72173
2014 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172016Q0003 211119 Clipped 79589
2014 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172016Q0003 636775 Unclipped 79707
2015 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172017Q0001 211182 Clipped 76651
2015 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172017Q0001 636911 Unclipped 77470
2016 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172018Q0001 211204 Clipped 76791
2016 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172018Q0001 637133 Unclipped 76229
2017 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172019Q0001 211252 Clipped 78516
2017 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172019Q0001 637322 Unclipped 78756
2018 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172020Q0001 211312 Clipped 80594
2018 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172020Q0001 637498 Unclipped 79234
2019 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172021Q0001 211401 Clipped 79998
2019 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172021Q0001 637706 Unclipped 79918
2020 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172022Q0001 211512 Clipped 78689
2020 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172022Q0001 637938 Unclipped 79848
2021 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172023Q0002 211569 Clipped 81608
2021 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172023Q0002 638256 Unclipped 82272
2022 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172024Q0001 210022 Clipped 82507
2022 SALMON R FISH CULTUR 172024Q0001 638169 Unclipped 82823

12.9 Grays Harbor MU

Table 12.7: Double-index tag codes released within the Grays Harbor MU, brood years 1995 through 2022.
Brood Year Hatchery DIT Group ID Tag Code Mark # Released
1995 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04199700000440 636157 Clipped 72015
1995 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04199700000440 636148 Unclipped 74919
1995 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04199700000441 636149 Clipped 71970
1995 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04199700000441 636150 Unclipped 72340
1996 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04199800000423 630340 Clipped 63978
1996 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04199800000423 630341 Unclipped 65229
1996 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04199800000439 636213 Clipped 59911
1996 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04199800000439 636212 Unclipped 61023
1997 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04199900000424 630562 Clipped 75449
1997 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04199900000424 630563 Unclipped 74744
1998 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200000000420 630916 Clipped 65986
1998 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200000000420 630915 Unclipped 72076
1999 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY none 630289 Clipped 69347
1999 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY none 630288 Unclipped 67861
2000 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200200000419 630899 Clipped 71665
2000 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200200000419 630964 Unclipped 71016
2001 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200300000418 631475 Clipped 69765
2001 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200300000418 631531 Unclipped 69866
2002 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200400000426 631875 Clipped 69462
2002 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200400000426 631874 Unclipped 71462
2003 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200500000427 632480 Clipped 72242
2003 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200500000427 632481 Unclipped 72242
2004 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200600000430 632693 Clipped 72621
2004 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200600000430 633090 Unclipped 71973
2005 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200700000432 633564 Clipped 71290
2005 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200700000432 633499 Unclipped 71752
2006 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200800000433 633675 Clipped 73728
2006 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200800000433 633674 Unclipped 73371
2007 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200900000434 634571 Clipped 73833
2007 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04200900000434 634572 Unclipped 73326
2008 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201000000436 634967 Clipped 71762
2008 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201000000436 634966 Unclipped 72179
2009 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201100000442 635467 Clipped 67388
2009 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201100000442 635468 Unclipped 67954
2010 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201200000443 635879 Clipped 71234
2010 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201200000443 635880 Unclipped 71753
2011 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201300000036 636393 Clipped 72929
2011 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201300000036 636394 Unclipped 73041
2012 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201400000040 636402 Clipped 72302
2012 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201400000040 636401 Unclipped 72623
2013 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201500000803 636716 Clipped 71792
2013 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201500000803 636717 Unclipped 71108
2014 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201600000840 636849 Clipped 44961
2014 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201600000840 636851 Clipped 28418
2014 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201600000840 636850 Unclipped 44633
2014 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201600000840 636852 Unclipped 29611
2015 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201700000851 636905 Clipped 73706
2015 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201700000851 636904 Unclipped 74263
2016 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201800000913 637115 Clipped 75483
2016 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201800000913 637114 Unclipped 75567
2017 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201900000958 637324 Clipped 74591
2017 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04201900000958 637325 Unclipped 74881
2018 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04202000001023 637573 Clipped 74521
2018 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04202000001023 637574 Unclipped 74820
2019 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04202100001010 637504 Clipped 74991
2019 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04202100001010 637572 Unclipped 75580
2020 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04202200001134 638017 Clipped 67363
2020 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04202200001134 638016 Unclipped 69846
2021 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04202300001154 638258 Clipped 74937
2021 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04202300001154 638257 Unclipped 74578
2022 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04202400001227 630013 Clipped 74392
2022 BINGHAM CR HATCHERY 04202400001227 630012 Unclipped 67717
1995 HUMPTULIPS HATCHERY 04199700000410 636222 Clipped 39309
1995 HUMPTULIPS HATCHERY 04199700000410 636224 Clipped 39763
1995 HUMPTULIPS HATCHERY 04199700000410 636225 Unclipped 39406
1995 HUMPTULIPS HATCHERY 04199700000410 636223 Unclipped 39736
1996 HUMPTULIPS HATCHERY 04199800000411 636226 Clipped 39780
1996 HUMPTULIPS HATCHERY 04199800000411 636228 Clipped 39541
1996 HUMPTULIPS HATCHERY 04199800000411 636227 Unclipped 39244
1996 HUMPTULIPS HATCHERY 04199800000411 636229 Unclipped 35265
1998 SKOOKUMCHUCK HATCHERY 04200000000421 631154 Clipped 51017
1998 SKOOKUMCHUCK HATCHERY 04200000000421 631153 Unclipped 51966

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Footnotes

  1. Beginning BY 1996, all tagged releases were unmarked.↩︎

  2. BYs 1997 and 1998, all tagged releases were unmarked; fry released BYs 84-90 and 93.↩︎

  3. BYs 1999, 2001-02, and 2005, all tagged releases were unmarked; fry released BY 1995.↩︎

  4. BYs 1997 and 1998 were released as fry.↩︎

  5. When space is limited at Spius Creek Hatchery, additional fish are raised at Chilliwack River Hatchery and released in the Coldwater River.↩︎

  6. Fry released BYs 1983-1990.↩︎

  7. All fry releases.↩︎

  8. All fry releases.↩︎

  9. Beginning BY 1998, all tagged releases were unmarked; fry released BY 1987, 1989-90.↩︎

  10. BY 1997 released unmarked; fry released BY 1984-86, 1988.↩︎

  11. Beginning BY 1997, all tagged releases were unmarked; fry released BY 1983-86, 1988.↩︎

  12. Beginning BY 1997, all tagged releases were unmarked; fry released BY 1988-89.↩︎

  13. Begging BY 2000, all tagged releases were unmarked.↩︎

  14. All tagged releases were unmarked.↩︎

  15. Fry released BY 1989.↩︎

  16. Fry released BYs 2009-10.↩︎

  17. Beginning with BY 1997 (except 2004) tagged releases were unmarked.↩︎

  18. Beginning BY 1996, all tagged releases were unmarked.↩︎

  19. Bernie Gobin Hatchery tagging program and the Skykomish tagging program at the Wallace River Hatchery are used to represent production in both the Stillaguamish and Snohomish River Basins.↩︎

  20. BY 1997-98 were released unmarked; this stock was used to represent Stillaguamish in the FRAM base period.↩︎

  21. BY 1996 and 1998-2020, all tagged releases were unmarked.↩︎

  22. Fry released BY 1986.↩︎

  23. Release groups were very small.↩︎

  24. In all years, release groups are very small. Beginning BY 2003, all tagged releases were unmarked.↩︎

  25. Beginning BY 1996, all tagged releases were unmarked.↩︎

  26. Beginning BY 1995, all tagged releases were unmarked.↩︎

  27. Beginning BY 1995, all tagged releases were unmarked.↩︎